Frost Advisory 6, NWS La Crosse, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1248 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

Key Messages:

- Frost Freeze Headlines this Morning and Potential for Thursday
Morning

- Above Normal Temperatures To End the Week into the Next Week

- Next Chance for Rain??

Overview:

The 00Z MPX sounding showed very dry conditions with only 0.21
precipitable water. Water vapor satellite imagery/500mb heights
had a few noteworthy feature; locally, we are under northwest
flow aloft with a broad trough to the east...a ridge over most of
the western Plains/Rockies with a shortwave over Saskatchewan, a
large closed low off the West Coast, and of course Hurricane Ian
heading toward Florida. The bulk of the stratus clouds continue to
skirt the area to the east. The latest subjective surface
analysis has surface high pressure centered over Minnesota. 07Z
metars have temperatures in the 30s for most locations and remain
on track with the frost/freeze advisory/warning in place.

Frost/Freeze Headlines this Morning and Potential for Thursday
Morning:

The mid-tropospheric trough to the east departs the area with
ridging building in for today.  Surface high pressure expands across
the area with south return flow setting up tonight.
Meanwhile...the shortwave trough in Canada drops southeast toward
the Upper Mississippi Valley and into the U.P. of Michigan for
Thursday. Additionally, shortwave troughing develops to the west
across the Dakotas. The thermal ridge to the west Thursday
gradually works east for Friday as the shortwave trough tracks
across Minnesota and across the forecast area.

The frost and freeze headlines remain in place through early morning
with some patchy clouds and valley fog.  Temperatures starting out
in the 20s to lower and mid 30s rise into the 40s and 50s with lower
60s at KLSE.  The winds will be light and variable with some patchy
clouds spreading in from eastern WI. Overnight, return flow sets
up. Low temperatures again will drop into the 30s...with freezing
temperatures for parts of the Black River Falls, Wisconsin River,
and Lemonweir River Valleys. The frost and freeze headlines will
need to be coordinated with neighboring offices today, as if
freezing is widespread enough, Taylor, Clark, and Jackson
Counties may be done for the season. Frost is mentioned for much
of the area Thursday morning. Highs Thursday should top out in the
50s and 60s.

Temperatures and Rain Chances into Next Week:

As the shortwaves push into the Upper Mississippi we'll see
increased mid clouds and some precipitation chances through Friday
night.  We are in-between more significant systems with the remnants
of Hurricane Ian lifting north and eastward as the closed low
over Montana/Idaho lingers into early next week. At this time, the
bulk of the guidance is on the dry side. The EC ensemble is dry
Thu night with only two members with any QPF Friday and a handful
of members Friday night into early next week. The GFS ensembles
are also mainly dry. For now we have a dry forecast going, however
a few other operational models; the NAM/UKMet/Canadian show some
light precipitation. When confidence increases and we can pinpoint
rain chances better, we'll add them to the forecast. It appears
to be a good drying forecast for those with crops with
temperatures gradually rising each day and above normal in the 60s
and 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

VFR conditions persist through the TAF period. Light and variable
winds can be expected through this evening. Southeasterly winds
overnight become more southerly tomorrow morning with speeds
increasing to 10-15 knots towards midday Thursday.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Zapotocny
AVIATION...KAA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
806 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ032-033-041-
053>055-061-291200-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Buffalo-Trempealeau-La Crosse-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
806 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Minnesota...southwest Wisconsin
and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Areas of frost are expected to develop tonight. Take action to
protect tender plants.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Frost is expected to continue into Thursday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

No action needed.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

WIZ017-029-034-042>044-291200-
Taylor-Clark-Jackson-Monroe-Juneau-Adams-
806 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Wisconsin...north central Wisconsin and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Temperatures tonight will again drop into the upper 20s to lower
30s. Take action to protect tender plants and outdoor faucets.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Frost and some local freezing temperatures are expected to
continue into Thursday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

No action needed.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

nofwd