Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS La Crosse, WI

082 
WGUS73 KARX 151053
FFSARX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
553 AM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022

WIC019-151215-
/O.CON.KARX.FF.W.0006.000000T0000Z-220715T1215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Clark WI-
553 AM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 AM CDT THIS 
MORNING FOR NORTHWESTERN CLARK COUNTY...

At 553 AM CDT, local law enforcement reported 3 to 4 inches of water 
over County Highway X and Copenhaver Avenue 5 miles west of Thorp. 
Between 2 and 5 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall 
amounts up to 1 inch are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding 
is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Law enforcement reported.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Thorp, Loyal, Greenwood, Reseburg, Sterling Avenue And Starks 
  Road, Mead Lake, Highway 73 And 98, Eidsvold and Junction.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 4503 9092 4498 9078 4471 9045 4463 9054
      4485 9092 4492 9092 4497 9092 4500 9092

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED

$$

Dahl

247 
WGUS53 KARX 151208
FFWARX
WIC019-151400-
/O.EXT.KARX.FF.W.0006.000000T0000Z-220715T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
708 AM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022

The National Weather Service in La Crosse has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Northwestern Clark County in central Wisconsin...

* Until 900 AM CDT.

* At 708 AM CDT, local law enforcement reported high water still 
  over some roads within the county. Thunderstorms that had produced 
  the heavy rain have since moved out of the warned area, but 
  moderate rainfall continues. Between 2 and 5 inches of rain have 
  fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are possible in 
  the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Law enforcement reported.

  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
           areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
           other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Thorp, Loyal, Greenwood, Reseburg, Sterling Avenue And Starks 
  Road, Mead Lake, Highway 73 And 98, Eidsvold and Junction.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 4503 9092 4498 9078 4471 9045 4463 9054
      4485 9092 4492 9092 4497 9092 4500 9092

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED

$$

Kurz

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
227 AM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022

Key Messages:

 - Showers and storms continuing into today, heavy rainfall mainly
   east of the Mississippi

 - Periodic rain chances over the weekend

 - Warmer for next week

Overnight Showers and Storms Continuing Today:

As of 15.07 Z, showers and storms are developing and moving
southeast through the area. Storms currently in northwestern
Wisconsin appear to be forming along a max DCAPE axis, contributing
to efficient rainfall. MRMS data as of 15.06 shows rain amounts
ranging from a couple tenths to about 1.1 inches in eastern
Minnesota. More rainfall is on the way so we can only expect those
numbers to climb overnight and into the day. CAMs solutions are
beginning to come together and become more clear, with the HRRR
performing well at the moment. This round of precipitation will
continue from the overnight through around noon today. The primary
threat is still heavy rain, which could cause street flooding or
flash flooding if one location gets impacted by the expected
training storms.

Warm cloud depths are around 3500-4000 meters, depending on the
model; but not very impressive overall. PWATs up to 2 inches are
also not terribly impressive. CAPE also barely reaches 1000 J/kg in
some models mainly west of the Mississippi. Because these values are
on the lower end, high rainfall totals should be due to the expected
training pattern of the storms. However, stronger storms could be
capable of producing sporadic damaging wind gusts.

HREF 24 hour QPF has increased from yesterday and suggests that rain
amounts of 7+ inches are possible in a corridor through central
Wisconsin. This area of highest rainfall has shifted a bit to the
east compared to previous runs. In areas on the periphery of the
corridor, HREFv3 suggests at least a 40% chance of 2+ inches over
the 24 hour period in most areas east of the Mississippi River, with
the range mostly being 2-5 inches. West of the Mississippi, 2-3
inches of rain is possible.

Periodic Rain Chances This Weekend:

Still looking at intermittent rain chances for the weekend, though
they slightly decreased again compared to yesterday. Should be light
rain with weekend totals of a couple hundredths to tenths of an
inch. Thunder could be mixed in with the showers at times, but those
storms are not expected to be severe. Models favor a rain event of
*some* kind this weekend. There continue to be differences between
models on the placement and timing of weekend showers, so lower
confidence on those details of rain. Higher rain amounts should stay
south of the area, with chances decreasing into northern Wisconsin,
and some models suggesting northern areas would get no rain at all.
Can't rule out the possibility of rain with a couple shortwaves
passing over the area, so will continue to keep pops in.

Warm Up Next Week:

Next week will begin with above normal temperatures and muggy
conditions. Highs could reach the lower 90s and dewpoints 70 on
Monday and Tuesday. Heat indices in the upper 90s are suggested for
some locations, particularly in valleys, NE Iowa, and SW Wisconsin.
But otherwise should be relatively quiet weather, save for a chance
for rain Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022

CIGS: cigs still look on track to drop to MVFR toward 12z-ish,
hanging around into the afternoon. Could see a drop into IFR for a
short period later this morning. Latest RAP/NAM suggest the low cigs
could linger well into the evening (NAM most aggressive) while the
GFS favors scattering out. Will push back the scattering...but there
is the potential skies won't clear until later Sat with sfc
low/trough just to the south.

WX/VSBY: Showers and storms will track southeast across the area
overnight/friday morning. While CAMS/Meso models continue to show
some differences in where the main slug of heavier rain will track,
there is some consensus with favoring impacts for the TAF sites
between 09-15z. That is the most likely period for storms, heavier
rain, and IFR/MVFR vsbys. Will add a tempo group near 12z to
highlight a more likely period for greater impacts.

WINDS: Winds will be out of the southeast and will stay around 10
knots...becoming more easterly Fri night (and lightening up a tad).

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Dahl
AVIATION.....Rieck

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
430 AM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-151200-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-
Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
430 AM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall are likely late tonight
into Friday morning. Organized severe weather is not expected,
but localized flooding impacts could be realized if storms repeat
over the same areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Thunderstorm chances continue into Friday with potential for a few
stronger storms. Heavy rainfall and isolated damaging winds will
be the main threats. Periodic thunderstorm chances will continue
into the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to report heavy rain amounts or any flooding
tonight into Friday.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.