Alert archive / Michigan / Winter Storm Warnings in 2022
Winter Storm Warning 5, NWS Gaylord, MI
NWS Gaylord, MI issued this winter storm warning at Nov 16, 2022, 10:42 PM EST for 8 counties in Michigan. It took effect at Nov 17, 2022, 7:00 AM EST. It was in force for 31 hr. 28 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 16, 2022, 10:42 PM EST (03:42 UTC)
- In effect from
- Nov 17, 2022, 7:00 AM EST
- Expired
- Nov 18, 2022, 2:17 PM EST
- In force
- 31 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Gaylord, MI
Counties Antrim County, MI, Charlevoix County, MI, Cheboygan County, MI, Emmet County, MI, Grand Traverse County, MI, Kalkaska County, MI, Leelanau County, MI, Otsego County, MI
The radar
The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 41 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:44 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 7:00 AM EST | SNOW 3.5 | 1 Nne Grawn, MI | COCORAHS STATION MI-GT-30 TRAVERSE CITY 6.1 SW. |
| Nov 17, 7:00 AM EST | SNOW 4 | 4 Wsw Bates, MI | CO-OP OBSERVER STATION TCEM4 TRAVERSE CITY 4.7 ESE. |
| Nov 17, 8:00 AM EST | SNOW 5.1 | 1 W Northport, MI | CO-OP OBSERVER STATION NPTM4 NORTHPORT 2 W. |
| Nov 17, 11:00 AM EST | SNOW 6 | Central Lake, MI | LOCAL SPOTTER REPORT. |
| Nov 17, 11:00 PM EST | HEAVY SNOW 16.5 | 8 N Harbor Springs, MI | SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT. |
| Nov 18, 4:24 AM EST | SNOW 14 | Central Lake, MI | . |
| Nov 18, 4:24 AM EST | SNOW 14 | Central Lake, MI | |
| Nov 18, 7:00 AM EST | SNOW 3 | 1 Nw Waters, MI | CO-OP OBSERVER STATION APXM4 GAYLORD 9 SSW. |
| Nov 18, 7:00 AM EST | SNOW 5.3 | 3 W Omena, MI | COCORAHS STATION MI-LL-1 NORTHPORT 5.0 SSW. |
| Nov 18, 7:00 AM EST | SNOW 6.1 | 2 Se Elmira, MI | COCORAHS STATION MI-OT-19 ELMIRA 2.2 ESE. |
| Nov 18, 7:00 AM EST | SNOW 7.5 | 1 Wsw Ironton, MI | COCORAHS STATION MI-CX-4 CHARLEVOIX 4.3 SSE. |
| Nov 18, 7:00 AM EST | SNOW 8.8 | 3 Ssw Norwood, MI | COCORAHS STATION MI-AT-8 CHARLEVOIX 9.8 SW. |
| Nov 18, 7:00 AM EST | HEAVY SNOW 19 | 4 Sw East Jordan, MI | 12 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL ENDING AT 700 AM. |
| Nov 18, 7:00 AM EST | HEAVY SNOW 24 | 1 Ese East Jordan, MI | 12 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL ENDING AT 700 AM. |
| Nov 18, 8:00 AM EST | SNOW 3.7 | 1 Ese Mancelona, MI | COCORAHS STATION MI-AT-6 MANCELONA 0.5 ESE. |
| Nov 18, 8:00 AM EST | SNOW 5 | 1 W Petoskey, MI | CO-OP OBSERVER STATION PETM4 PETOSKEY WWTP. |
| Nov 18, 8:00 AM EST | SNOW 5.1 | 1 Sse Petoskey, MI | CO-OP OBSERVER STATION PTYM4 PETOSKEY NCMC. |
| Nov 18, 8:00 AM EST | SNOW 13 | 2 Nnw East Jordan, MI | COCORAHS STATION MI-CX-7 EAST JORDAN 2.1 NNW. |
| Nov 18, 8:00 AM EST | SNOW 13 | 2 Nnw East Jordan, MI | CO-OP OBSERVER STATION EJNM4 EAST JORDAN 2 NW. |
| Nov 18, 8:10 AM EST | HEAVY SNOW 16 | Cheboygan, MI | 24 SNOWFALL TOTAL ENDING AT 800 AM. |
| Nov 18, 11:10 AM EST | HEAVY SNOW 6 | Suttons Bay, MI | PUBLIC REPORT. |
| Nov 18, 11:33 AM EST | HEAVY SNOW 12 | Kewadin, MI | PUBLIC REPORT. |
| Nov 18, 11:34 AM EST | HEAVY SNOW 24 | Central Lake, MI | PUBLIC REPORT. |
| Nov 18, 11:37 AM EST | HEAVY SNOW 12 | 2 Nne Alba, MI | PUBLIC REPORT. |
| Nov 18, 11:40 AM EST | HEAVY SNOW 15 | 3 Wsw Ironton, MI | PUBLIC REPORT. |
| Nov 18, 11:41 AM EST | HEAVY SNOW 19 | Ellsworth, MI | PUBLIC REPORT. |
| Nov 18, 11:45 AM EST | HEAVY SNOW 9 | 1 E Harbor Springs, MI | PUBLIC REPORT. |
| Nov 18, 12:05 PM EST | SNOW 10.5 | 3 Nw Boyne City, MI |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
The nearest sounding before it
Alpena, MI (KAPX), launched 00:00Z, 3.7 hours before the alert went out and 216 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 860 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 12 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -23 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -25 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
035 WWUS43 KAPX 170342 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1042 PM EST Wed Nov 16 2022 MIZ016-099-171145- /O.UPG.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.221117T1200Z-221118T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KAPX.WS.W.0005.221117T1200Z-221118T1200Z/ Emmet-Charlevoix- Including the cities of Petoskey and Charlevoix 1042 PM EST Wed Nov 16 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 7 to 10 inches. The heaviest snowfall is expected near and south of Little Traverse Bay, with localized areas of more than 10 inches possible by early Friday morning. * WHERE...Emmet and Charlevoix Counties. * WHEN...From 7 AM Thursday to 7 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Heavy snowfall rates around an inch per hour will create whiteout conditions. Travel could be very difficult to impossible. These hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening commutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. && $$ MIZ022-027-095>097-171145- /O.EXA.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.221117T1200Z-221118T1200Z/ Otsego-Kalkaska-Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac- Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island- Including the cities of Gaylord, Kalkaska, Engadine, Naubinway, Epoufette, St. Ignace, Brevort, Les Cheneaux Islands, and Mackinac Island 1042 PM EST Wed Nov 16 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches. * WHERE...Otsego, Kalkaska, Western Mackinac, Eastern Mackinac and Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island Counties. * WHEN...From 7 AM Thursday to 7 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slick and snow covered roads, reduced visibility, and difficult travel for the morning and evening commutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. && $$ MIZ017-020-021-025-026-031-032-098-171145- /O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.221117T1200Z-221118T1200Z/ Cheboygan-Leelanau-Antrim-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Manistee-Wexford- Beaver Island and surrounding islands- Including the cities of Cheboygan, Northport, Mancelona, Frankfort, Traverse City, Manistee, Cadillac, and St. James 1042 PM EST Wed Nov 16 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches. * WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan. * WHEN...From 7 AM Thursday to 7 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slick and snow covered roads, reduced visibility, and difficult travel for the morning and evening commutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/gaylord
11 follow-up statements
879 WWUS43 KAPX 170842 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Gaylord MI 342 AM EST Thu Nov 17 2022 MIZ016-099-171645- /O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0005.221117T1200Z-221118T1200Z/ Emmet-Charlevoix- Including the cities of Petoskey and Charlevoix 342 AM EST Thu Nov 17 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 7 to 10 inches with locally higher amounts. * WHERE...Emmet and Charlevoix Counties. * WHEN...From 7 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. && $$ MIZ017-020>022-025>027-031-032-095>098-171645- /O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.221117T1200Z-221118T1200Z/ Cheboygan-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska- Manistee-Wexford-Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac- Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island- Beaver Island and surrounding islands- Including the cities of Cheboygan, Northport, Mancelona, Gaylord, Frankfort, Traverse City, Kalkaska, Manistee, Cadillac, Engadine, Naubinway, Epoufette, St. Ignace, Brevort, Les Cheneaux Islands, Mackinac Island, and St. James 342 AM EST Thu Nov 17 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with locally higher amounts. * WHERE...Portions of Eastern Upper and Northern Lower Michigan. * WHEN...From 7 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/gaylord
585 WWUS43 KAPX 171441 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Gaylord MI 941 AM EST Thu Nov 17 2022 MIZ016-099-172245- /O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-221118T1200Z/ Emmet-Charlevoix- Including the cities of Petoskey and Charlevoix 941 AM EST Thu Nov 17 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Total snow accumulations of 7 to 10 inches with locally higher amounts. * WHERE...Emmet and Charlevoix Counties. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. && $$ MIZ017-020>022-025>027-031-032-095>098-172245- /O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-221118T1200Z/ Cheboygan-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska- Manistee-Wexford-Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac- Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island- Beaver Island and surrounding islands- Including the cities of Cheboygan, Northport, Mancelona, Gaylord, Frankfort, Traverse City, Kalkaska, Manistee, Cadillac, Engadine, Naubinway, Epoufette, St. Ignace, Brevort, Les Cheneaux Islands, Mackinac Island, and St. James 941 AM EST Thu Nov 17 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with locally higher amounts possible. * WHERE...Portions of Eastern Upper and Northern Lower Michigan. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/gaylord
766 WWUS43 KAPX 171937 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Gaylord MI 237 PM EST Thu Nov 17 2022 MIZ021-180345- /O.UPG.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-221118T1200Z/ /O.EXA.KAPX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-221118T1200Z/ Antrim- Including the city of Mancelona 237 PM EST Thu Nov 17 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 9 inches. * WHERE...Antrim County. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. && $$ MIZ016-099-180345- /O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-221118T1200Z/ Emmet-Charlevoix- Including the cities of Petoskey and Charlevoix 237 PM EST Thu Nov 17 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches. * WHERE...Emmet and Charlevoix Counties. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. && $$ MIZ017-020-022-025>027-031-032-095>098-180345- /O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-221118T1200Z/ Cheboygan-Leelanau-Otsego-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Manistee- Wexford-Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac- Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island- Beaver Island and surrounding islands- Including the cities of Cheboygan, Northport, Gaylord, Frankfort, Traverse City, Kalkaska, Manistee, Cadillac, Engadine, Naubinway, Epoufette, St. Ignace, Brevort, Les Cheneaux Islands, Mackinac Island, and St. James 237 PM EST Thu Nov 17 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches with locally higher amounts possible. * WHERE...Portions of Eastern Upper and Northern Lower Michigan. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/gaylord
992 WWUS43 KAPX 180023 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Gaylord MI 723 PM EST Thu Nov 17 2022 MIZ020-026-027-180830- /O.UPG.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-221118T1200Z/ /O.EXA.KAPX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-221118T1200Z/ Leelanau-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska- Including the cities of Northport, Traverse City, and Kalkaska 723 PM EST Thu Nov 17 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Gusty winds and snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour will accompany the most intense bands. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches possible. * WHERE...Leelanau, Grand Traverse and Kalkaska Counties. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on dangerous rapidly snow covered roads with whiteout conditions possible through the overnight hours. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. && $$ MIZ016-021-099-180830- /O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-221118T1200Z/ Emmet-Antrim-Charlevoix- Including the cities of Petoskey, Mancelona, and Charlevoix 723 PM EST Thu Nov 17 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Gusty winds and snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour will accompany the most intense bands. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches possible. * WHERE...Emmet, Antrim and Charlevoix Counties. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on dangerous rapidly snow covered roads with whiteout conditions possible through the overnight hours. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. && $$ MIZ017-022-025-031-032-095>098-180830- /O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-221118T1200Z/ Cheboygan-Otsego-Benzie-Manistee-Wexford-Western Mackinac- Eastern Mackinac-Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island- Beaver Island and surrounding islands- Including the cities of Cheboygan, Gaylord, Frankfort, Manistee, Cadillac, Engadine, Naubinway, Epoufette, St. Ignace, Brevort, Les Cheneaux Islands, Mackinac Island, and St. James 723 PM EST Thu Nov 17 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches through the overnight hours. * WHERE...Portions of Eastern Upper and Northern Lower Michigan. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/gaylord
898 WWUS43 KAPX 180108 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Gaylord MI 808 PM EST Thu Nov 17 2022 MIZ017-180915- /O.UPG.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-221118T1200Z/ /O.EXA.KAPX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-221118T1200Z/ Cheboygan- Including the city of Cheboygan 808 PM EST Thu Nov 17 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Gusty winds and snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour will accompany the most intense bands. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 7 inches possible. * WHERE...Cheboygan County. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on dangerous rapidly snow covered roads with whiteout conditions possible through the overnight hours. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. && $$ MIZ016-020-021-026-027-099-180915- /O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-221118T1200Z/ Emmet-Leelanau-Antrim-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Charlevoix- Including the cities of Petoskey, Northport, Mancelona, Traverse City, Kalkaska, and Charlevoix 808 PM EST Thu Nov 17 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Gusty winds and snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour will accompany the most intense bands. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 8 inches possible through the early morning hours. * WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on dangerous rapidly snow covered roads with whiteout conditions possible through the overnight hours. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. && $$ MIZ018-180915- /O.EXA.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-221118T1200Z/ Presque Isle- Including the city of Rogers City 808 PM EST Thu Nov 17 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 7 inches. * WHERE...Presque Isle County. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. && $$ MIZ022-025-031-032-095>098-180915- /O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-221118T1200Z/ Otsego-Benzie-Manistee-Wexford-Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac- Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island- Beaver Island and surrounding islands- Including the cities of Gaylord, Frankfort, Manistee, Cadillac, Engadine, Naubinway, Epoufette, St. Ignace, Brevort, Les Cheneaux Islands, Mackinac Island, and St. James 808 PM EST Thu Nov 17 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to two inches. * WHERE...Portions of Eastern Upper and Northern Lower Michigan. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/gaylord
651 WWUS43 KAPX 180444 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1144 PM EST Thu Nov 17 2022 MIZ016-017-020-026-181245- /O.CAN.KAPX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-221118T1200Z/ /O.EXB.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-221119T0000Z/ Emmet-Cheboygan-Leelanau-Grand Traverse- Including the cities of Petoskey, Cheboygan, Northport, and Traverse City 1144 PM EST Thu Nov 17 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY... ...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED... * WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches through Friday evening. * WHERE...Emmet, Cheboygan, Leelanau and Grand Traverse Counties. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on hazardous driving conditions overnight through Friday evening at least. Snow covered roads and visibility reduction is expected, especially in far northern Leelanau county. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. && $$ MIZ095>098-180545- /O.CAN.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-221118T1200Z/ Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac- Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island- Beaver Island and surrounding islands- Including the cities of Engadine, Naubinway, Epoufette, St. Ignace, Brevort, Les Cheneaux Islands, Mackinac Island, and St. James 1144 PM EST Thu Nov 17 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... Winds have shifted such that lake effect snow is not expected to impact this area. $$ MIZ022-181245- /O.UPG.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-221118T1200Z/ /O.EXB.KAPX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-221119T0000Z/ Otsego- Including the city of Gaylord 1144 PM EST Thu Nov 17 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 5 to 10 inches. Some localized areas under persistant lake effect bands could see more than 10 inches of snowfall by Friday evening. * WHERE...Otsego County. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible in some areas. Plan on dangerous driving conditions with rapidly snow covered roads and whiteout conditions at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. && $$ MIZ021-027-099-181245- /O.EXT.KAPX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-221119T0000Z/ Antrim-Kalkaska-Charlevoix- Including the cities of Mancelona, Kalkaska, and Charlevoix 1144 PM EST Thu Nov 17 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 8 to 12 inches by Friday evening. Some localized areas under persistant lake effect bands could see over a foot of snowfall by Friday evening. * WHERE...Antrim, Kalkaska and Charlevoix Counties. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible in some areas. Plan on dangerous driving conditions with rapidly snow covered roads and whiteout conditions at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. && $$ MIZ028-033-181245- /O.EXB.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-221119T0000Z/ Crawford-Missaukee- Including the cities of Grayling and Lake City 1144 PM EST Thu Nov 17 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches by Friday evening. * WHERE...Crawford and Missaukee Counties. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on hazardous travel conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. && $$ MIZ018-025-031-032-181245- /O.EXT.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-221119T0000Z/ Presque Isle-Benzie-Manistee-Wexford- Including the cities of Rogers City, Frankfort, Manistee, and Cadillac 1144 PM EST Thu Nov 17 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches. * WHERE...Presque Isle, Benzie, Manistee and Wexford Counties. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on hazardous travel conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/gaylord
817 WWUS43 KAPX 180846 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Gaylord MI 346 AM EST Fri Nov 18 2022 MIZ027-181700- /O.CAN.KAPX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-221119T0000Z/ /O.EXA.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-221119T0000Z/ Kalkaska- Including the city of Kalkaska 346 AM EST Fri Nov 18 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... ...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED... * WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. * WHERE...Kalkaska County. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. && $$ MIZ018-181000- /O.CAN.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-221119T0000Z/ Presque Isle- Including the city of Rogers City 346 AM EST Fri Nov 18 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... Another inch or two of snow accumulation is possible today. $$ MIZ021-022-099-181700- /O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-221119T0000Z/ Antrim-Otsego-Charlevoix- Including the cities of Mancelona, Gaylord, and Charlevoix 346 AM EST Fri Nov 18 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 12 inches with locally higher amounts possible. * WHERE...Antrim, Otsego and Charlevoix Counties. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. && $$ MIZ016-017-020-025-026-028-031>033-181700- /O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-221119T0000Z/ Emmet-Cheboygan-Leelanau-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Crawford-Manistee- Wexford-Missaukee- Including the cities of Petoskey, Cheboygan, Northport, Frankfort, Traverse City, Grayling, Manistee, Cadillac, and Lake City 346 AM EST Fri Nov 18 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. * WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/gaylord
503 WWUS43 KAPX 181240 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Gaylord MI 740 AM EST Fri Nov 18 2022 MIZ021-022-099-182045- /O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-221119T0000Z/ Antrim-Otsego-Charlevoix- Including the cities of Mancelona, Gaylord, and Charlevoix 740 AM EST Fri Nov 18 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 12 inches with locally higher amounts possible. * WHERE...Antrim, Otsego and Charlevoix Counties. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. && $$ MIZ016-017-020-025>028-031>033-182045- /O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-221119T0000Z/ Emmet-Cheboygan-Leelanau-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford- Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee- Including the cities of Petoskey, Cheboygan, Northport, Frankfort, Traverse City, Kalkaska, Grayling, Manistee, Cadillac, and Lake City 740 AM EST Fri Nov 18 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches with locally higher amounts possible. * WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/gaylord
337 WWUS43 KAPX 181314 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Gaylord MI 814 AM EST Fri Nov 18 2022 MIZ021-022-099-182115- /O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-221119T0000Z/ Antrim-Otsego-Charlevoix- Including the cities of Mancelona, Gaylord, and Charlevoix 814 AM EST Fri Nov 18 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 12 inches with locally higher amounts possible. * WHERE...Antrim, Otsego and Charlevoix Counties. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. && $$ MIZ018-182115- /O.EXA.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-221119T0000Z/ Presque Isle- Including the city of Rogers City 814 AM EST Fri Nov 18 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches with locally higher amounts possible. * WHERE...Presque Isle County. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. && $$ MIZ016-017-020-025>028-031>033-182115- /O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-221119T0000Z/ Emmet-Cheboygan-Leelanau-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford- Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee- Including the cities of Petoskey, Cheboygan, Northport, Frankfort, Traverse City, Kalkaska, Grayling, Manistee, Cadillac, and Lake City 814 AM EST Fri Nov 18 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches with locally higher amounts possible. * WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/gaylord
648 WWUS43 KAPX 181524 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1024 AM EST Fri Nov 18 2022 MIZ021-022-099-182330- /O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-221119T0000Z/ Antrim-Otsego-Charlevoix- Including the cities of Mancelona, Gaylord, and Charlevoix 1024 AM EST Fri Nov 18 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 6 inches. * WHERE...Antrim, Otsego and Charlevoix Counties. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. && $$ MIZ016-017-020-025>028-031>033-182330- /O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-221119T0000Z/ Emmet-Cheboygan-Leelanau-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford- Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee- Including the cities of Petoskey, Cheboygan, Northport, Frankfort, Traverse City, Kalkaska, Grayling, Manistee, Cadillac, and Lake City 1024 AM EST Fri Nov 18 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts possible. * WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. && $$ MIZ018-182330- /O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-221119T0000Z/ Presque Isle- Including the city of Rogers City 1024 AM EST Fri Nov 18 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts possible. * WHERE...Presque Isle County. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/gaylord
602 WWUS43 KAPX 181917 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Gaylord MI 217 PM EST Fri Nov 18 2022 MIZ021-099-190330- /O.CAN.KAPX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-221119T0000Z/ /O.EXB.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-221119T1800Z/ Antrim-Charlevoix- Including the cities of Mancelona and Charlevoix 217 PM EST Fri Nov 18 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY... ...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED... * WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 6 inches with locally higher amounts possible. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph late tonight through Saturday. * WHERE...Antrim and Charlevoix Counties. * WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. && $$ MIZ022-190000- /O.CAN.KAPX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-221119T0000Z/ /O.EXA.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-221119T0000Z/ Otsego- Including the city of Gaylord 217 PM EST Fri Nov 18 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... ...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED... * WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to two inches. * WHERE...Otsego County. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. && $$ MIZ018-182030- /O.CAN.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-221119T0000Z/ Presque Isle- Including the city of Rogers City 217 PM EST Fri Nov 18 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... $$ MIZ016-017-190330- /O.UPG.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-221119T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KAPX.WS.W.0006.221118T2200Z-221119T1800Z/ Emmet-Cheboygan- Including the cities of Petoskey and Cheboygan 217 PM EST Fri Nov 18 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 13 inches with locally higher amounts possible. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph late tonight through Saturday. * WHERE...Emmet and Cheboygan Counties. * WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow accumulation will vary greatly across parts of Emmet and Cheboygan counties. The heaviest accumulation is expected across central Emmet County and west of M-33 in Cheboygan County. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. && $$ MIZ088-096-097-190330- /O.NEW.KAPX.WS.W.0006.221118T2200Z-221119T1800Z/ Southeast Chippewa-Eastern Mackinac- Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island- Including the cities of Detour Village, Goetzville, Drummond Island, St. Ignace, Brevort, Les Cheneaux Islands, and Mackinac Island 217 PM EST Fri Nov 18 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 11 inches with locally higher amounts possible. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph late tonight through Saturday. * WHERE...Southeast Chippewa, Eastern Mackinac and Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island Counties. * WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow accumulation will vary greatly across parts of Mackinac and Chippewa counties. The heaviest accumulation is expected east of Interstate 75 and south of M-48. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. && $$ MIZ098-190330- /O.EXB.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.221118T2200Z-221119T1800Z/ Beaver Island and surrounding islands- Including the city of St. James 217 PM EST Fri Nov 18 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with locally higher amounts possible. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Beaver Island and surrounding islands County. * WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. && $$ MIZ020-025-026-031-032-190330- /O.EXT.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-221119T1800Z/ Leelanau-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Manistee-Wexford- Including the cities of Northport, Frankfort, Traverse City, Manistee, and Cadillac 217 PM EST Fri Nov 18 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with locally higher amounts possible. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph late tonight through Saturday. * WHERE...Leelanau, Benzie, Grand Traverse, Manistee and Wexford Counties. * WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. && $$ MIZ027-028-033-190000- /O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-221119T0000Z/ Kalkaska-Crawford-Missaukee- Including the cities of Kalkaska, Grayling, and Lake City 217 PM EST Fri Nov 18 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to two inches. * WHERE...Kalkaska, Crawford and Missaukee Counties. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/gaylord
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this winter storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm warning went out at Nov 16, 3:26 PM EST, 7 hours 16 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Nov 16, 3:26 PM EST, 7 hours 16 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
326 PM EST Wed Nov 16 2022
.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 327 PM EST Wed Nov 16 2022
...More light lake effect, especially in nw lower MI...
High Impact Weather Potential...low. Small snow accums.
A surface trof extends across lower MI, from Saginaw Bay to near
Holland MI and on toward Chicago. Northerly flow is found north of
this trof, though this is slowly backing. This trof heads
southward tonight, while another surface trof reforms in the usual
lake-aggregate trof position over southern Superior and northern
Lk Huron. Our flow will be more northerly thru early evening, then
back to the nnw/nw by midnight, and wnw/w by daybreak. 850mb temps
remain -9 to -12C, plenty cold enough for lake effect.
Morning/midday uptick of lake effect snow in nw lower MI shifted
south and/or otherwise played itself out. Better snowfall rates
are likely to return to some degree in Leelanau Co, as the winds
back around. But too much of a break between earlier snow and
later snow to warrant keeping that advisory around. Leelanau Co
advisory is being cancelled.
Primary areas of lake effect this evening will be w of M-66 in nw
lower, and near Rogers/APN in ne lower MI. As winds back further
overnight, activity will be displaced out of ne lower. Meanwhile,
activity in nw lower MI will be pushed as far east as I-75
overnight. Thru the entire night, 1000-850mb winds are on the
light side (10-15kt), so inland penetration will be somewhat
slowed. In eastern upper MI, main impacted areas this evening will
be western Chip/Mack Cos. Overnight, banding will shift out of
Mack Co, into central and northern Chip.
Some brief heavier snowfall rates can be expected, mainly in nw
lower MI, once we back the winds enough to re-establish a Superior
connection. But the light and backing winds will disrupt
organization. Nw lower MI accums near/west should be up to 3",
with places in the 1-2" range. A similar 1-2" between Rogers and
APN. Less than an inch in western Chip/Mack Cos.
Min temps tonight from 20f to 30f.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Saturday)
Issued at 327 PM EST Wed Nov 16 2022
...The Start of a Prolonged Lake Effect System...
High Impact Weather Potential...Moderate to heavy snow amounts
Thursday night through the weekend.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast and Possible Impacts...Thursday, Looking
at most of the models, the 850 mb temperatures remain around -10c in
N Lake Michigan through out the day. Moisture in the 850-700 mb
layer remains around 80-95% through the day as well, which just
leaves the wind direction. That will be the main issue through the
day as the 1000-850 mb start off about the same, but the main models
(GFS/ECMWF/CMC/SREF) and the CAMs (ARW/FV3/NAMNest/RAP13) show some
slightly different versions of the day. All the models start off
with the basic WSW flow over the region, that around 18z/Thu begins
to turn west (near N Lower). The North flow over Lake Superior and C
and E Upper are the main issue. With some models they turn
ESE(mainly on the ECMWF and the SREF). The GFS and CMC, and the CAMs
show some form of N flow that abruptly stops, and the WSW flow turns
W and by 00z/Fri WNW over N Lake Michigan and N Lower. Thursday
night, while there are differences, the main thing is that the North
flow on Lake Superior begins to push the west flow of Lake Michigan
a little south. This kicks off the moderate to heavy snow as any of
the west flow bands get smashed together in the tip of the mitt.
Winds then begin to veer WNW and NW. The amounts look to be Moderate
to heavy as with all of the other parameters (instability, moisture
and synoptic lift) remaining the same, the variable will be the wind
direction and the time that the bands can stall over a particular
place. So have put an advisory out for Lake Michigan lakeshore of NW
Lower to "get the word out" but wouldn't be surprised if a county or
two will get upgraded. The question is which one. Friday, 850 mb
temperatures continue to be cold enough for good lake effect, and
the winds are from a westerly direction, however, the winds begin to
back to the SW during the late afternoon and continues overnight.
Temperatures through the 24hrs (12z/Fri-12z/Sat), actually get
colder to around -15c, which is great for good dendritic growth. So
good snow bands, but with the winds backing SW, that could spread
the snow around, instead of bombing out of one area. Saturday, The
southwest flow continues through the morning. A trough moves through
Lake Michigan around 18z. Winds will then begin to turn NW for the
afternoon and into the evening. So we again get at least moderate
amounts along the SW flow areas, until the afternoon, only for the
NW flow areas getting hit in the afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 327 PM EST Wed Nov 16 2022
High Impact Weather Potential...Lake effect pattern continues into
the Weekend.
Extended (Saturday night through Wednesday)...Saturday night, Winds
remain west or northwest overnight (ECMWF shows W flow).
Temperatures remain around -15c for most of the period, as does the
moisture in the layer. This would continue the snow bands overnight.
Sunday, the snow should begin to taper off as the 850 mb
temperatures warm and the synoptic moisture finally moves out of the
region. Looks like the snow over most of N Lower would be done by
00z/Mon, while E Upper would be done by 06z/Mon. Monday and Tuesday
will be dry as high pressure is over the region, and the jet stream
ridges north of the Upper Great Lakes. Wednesday starts out dry, but
a 500 mb low preceded by a cold front looks to sink back into the
Upper Great Lakes, and bring the risk of rain showers back for the
afternoon in E Upper. However, once through, a developing low
pressure begins to pushing things north and snow is possible into
the Wednesday night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM EST Wed Nov 16 2022
IFR at times this afternoon/evening TVC/MBL.
Winds are backing to the n and nw, as a trof of low pressure
weakens and moves south of us. This is increasing lake effect snow
into nw lower MI, including TVC and MBL. These sites may see IFR
vsbys in -SHSN at times all the way into this evening. Otherwise,
MVFR cigs will be most common, with some flurries or light snow
showers still possible (though much less so than at TVC/MBL).
Relatively light n to nw winds into tonight. Sw winds arise
Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 327 PM EST Wed Nov 16 2022
Lightish winds will back from north to northwest and west by
daybreak Thursday, and sw on Thursday. Sw to w winds will become
gustier on Thursday and Thu night. Gales appear unlikely, but
small craft advisories will return for at least some waters.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Thursday to 7 AM EST Friday
for MIZ016-017-020-021-025-026-031-032-098-099.
LH...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ348-
349.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JZHazardous weather outlook, Nov 16, 3:30 PM EST, 7 hours 12 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Gaylord MI 330 PM EST Wed Nov 16 2022 MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-171300- Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency- Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona- Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac- Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa- Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac- Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island- Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix- 330 PM EST Wed Nov 16 2022 This hazardous weather outlook is for Eastern Upper Michigan and Northern Lower Michigan. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Light effect snow will occur tonight, especially in northwest lower Michigan. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Multiple periods of potentially heavy snow are expected Thursday into the weekend. The most substantial snowfall is expected across parts of northwest Lower Michigan where hazardous travel is likely. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-171300- Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel- 5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including Bois Blanc Island- Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI- Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge- Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI- Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI- Manistee to Point Betsie MI- Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI- St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay- 330 PM EST Wed Nov 16 2022 This hazardous weather outlook is for the northern Michigan nearshore waters of Lake Huron, Lake Michigan and Lake Superior. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Gaylord, MI issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 3:40 AM EST | Small Craft Advisory | APX | 43 hr |
Nearby
Winter Storm Warnings in Michigan, 2022Every winter storm warning in 2022
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.