Winter Storm Warning 3, NWS Gaylord, MI

837 
WWUS43 KAPX 051502
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1002 AM EST Sat Feb 5 2022

MIZ095-052315-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0003.220205T2100Z-220206T0900Z/
Western Mackinac-
Including the cities of Engadine, Naubinway, and Epoufette
1002 AM EST Sat Feb 5 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Some blowing and drifting snow. Total
  snow accumulations of 6 to 8 inches. Locally higher amounts are
  possible in heavier snow bands that may develop.

* WHERE...Western Mackinac County, near and especially west of
  Epoufette. This includes the US-2 corridor.

* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions along with drifting
  snow over the roadways. Travel along US-2 will be impacted. 
  Patchy blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$

MIZ087-088-096-052315-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0010.220205T2100Z-220206T1500Z/
Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-Eastern Mackinac-
Including the cities of Sault Ste. Marie, Brimley, Kinross, 
Sugar Island, Detour Village, Goetzville, Drummond Island, 
St. Ignace, Brevort, and Les Cheneaux Islands
1002 AM EST Sat Feb 5 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 
  inches.

* WHERE...Central and southeast Chippewa County, and Eastern 
  Mackinac County.

* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing snow
  could significantly reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

MIZ016-097-052315-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0010.220205T2100Z-220206T1500Z/
Emmet-Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Including the cities of Petoskey and Mackinac Island
1002 AM EST Sat Feb 5 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of 2 to 4 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze.

* WHERE...Emmet County, and Mackinac Island and Bois Blanc 
  Island.

* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

MIZ086-098-052315-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0010.220205T2100Z-220206T0900Z/
Western Chippewa-Beaver Island and surrounding islands-
Including the cities of Paradise, Trout Lake, Rudyard, 
and St. James
1002 AM EST Sat Feb 5 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 
  inches.

* WHERE...Western Chippewa County, and Beaver Island and
  surrounding islands.

* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord

JZ

701 
WWUS43 KAPX 052105
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
405 PM EST Sat Feb 5 2022

MIZ095-060515-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-220206T0900Z/
Western Mackinac-
Including the cities of Engadine, Naubinway, and Epoufette
405 PM EST Sat Feb 5 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Some blowing and drifting snow. Total snow
  accumulations of 4 to 8 inches. Locally higher amounts are
  possible in heavier snow bands that may develop.

* WHERE...Western Mackinac County, near and especially west of 
  Epoufette. This includes the US-2 corridor.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Travel along US-2
  will be impacted. Patchy blowing snow could significantly reduce
  visibility. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

MIZ087-088-096-060515-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-220206T1500Z/
Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-Eastern Mackinac-
Including the cities of Sault Ste. Marie, Brimley, Kinross, 
Sugar Island, Detour Village, Goetzville, Drummond Island, 
St. Ignace, Brevort, and Les Cheneaux Islands
405 PM EST Sat Feb 5 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches.

* WHERE...Southeast and central Chippewa County, and eastern
  Mackinac County.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ016-097-060515-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-220206T1500Z/
Emmet-Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Including the cities of Petoskey and Mackinac Island
405 PM EST Sat Feb 5 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Occasional snow. Freezing drizzle may mix in overnight
  into Sunday morning. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 
  inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze.

* WHERE...Emmet County, Mackinac Island and Bois Blanc Island.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ086-098-060515-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-220206T0900Z/
Western Chippewa-Beaver Island and surrounding islands-
Including the cities of Paradise, Trout Lake, Rudyard, 
and St. James
405 PM EST Sat Feb 5 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches.

* WHERE...Western Chippewa County, and Beaver Island and
  surrounding islands.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord

JZ

421 
WWUS43 KAPX 060321
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1021 PM EST Sat Feb 5 2022

MIZ095-060900-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-220206T0900Z/
Western Mackinac-
Including the cities of Engadine, Naubinway, and Epoufette
1021 PM EST Sat Feb 5 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 
  inches.

* WHERE...Western Mackinac County.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

MIZ087-088-096-061130-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-220206T1500Z/
Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-Eastern Mackinac-
Including the cities of Sault Ste. Marie, Brimley, Kinross, 
Sugar Island, Detour Village, Goetzville, Drummond Island, 
St. Ignace, Brevort, and Les Cheneaux Islands
1021 PM EST Sat Feb 5 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches.

* WHERE...Southeast Chippewa, Central Chippewa and Eastern 
  Mackinac Counties.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ016-097-061130-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-220206T1500Z/
Emmet-Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Including the cities of Petoskey and Mackinac Island
1021 PM EST Sat Feb 5 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Additional snow accumulations of 
  up to two inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze.

* WHERE...Emmet and Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island Counties.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ086-098-060900-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-220206T0900Z/
Western Chippewa-Beaver Island and surrounding islands-
Including the cities of Paradise, Trout Lake, Rudyard, 
and St. James
1021 PM EST Sat Feb 5 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to two inches.

* WHERE...Western Chippewa and Beaver Island and surrounding 
  islands Counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord

924 
WWUS43 KAPX 060739
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
239 AM EST Sun Feb 6 2022

MIZ095-060900-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-220206T0900Z/
Western Mackinac-
Including the cities of Engadine, Naubinway, and Epoufette
239 AM EST Sun Feb 6 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY
THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to one inch.

* WHERE...Western Mackinac County.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST early this morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

MIZ087-088-096-061500-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-220206T1500Z/
Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-Eastern Mackinac-
Including the cities of Sault Ste. Marie, Brimley, Kinross, 
Sugar Island, Detour Village, Goetzville, Drummond Island, 
St. Ignace, Brevort, and Les Cheneaux Islands
239 AM EST Sun Feb 6 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Additional snow accumulations of 
  up to one inch and ice accumulations of a light glaze.

* WHERE...Southeast Chippewa, Central Chippewa and Eastern 
  Mackinac Counties.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ016-097-061500-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-220206T1500Z/
Emmet-Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Including the cities of Petoskey and Mackinac Island
239 AM EST Sun Feb 6 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Additional snow accumulations of 
  up to one inch and ice accumulations of a light glaze.

* WHERE...Emmet and Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island Counties.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ086-098-060900-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-220206T0900Z/
Western Chippewa-Beaver Island and surrounding islands-
Including the cities of Paradise, Trout Lake, Rudyard, 
and St. James
239 AM EST Sun Feb 6 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY
THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to one inch.

* WHERE...Western Chippewa and Beaver Island and surrounding 
  islands Counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST early this morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord

158 
WWUS43 KAPX 060741
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
241 AM EST Sun Feb 6 2022

MIZ016-097-060845-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WW.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-220206T1500Z/
Emmet-Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Including the cities of Petoskey and Mackinac Island
241 AM EST Sun Feb 6 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...


$$

MIZ098-060845-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WW.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-220206T0900Z/
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-
Including the city of St. James
241 AM EST Sun Feb 6 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...


$$

MIZ095-060900-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-220206T0900Z/
Western Mackinac-
Including the cities of Engadine, Naubinway, and Epoufette
241 AM EST Sun Feb 6 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY
THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to one inch.

* WHERE...Western Mackinac County.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST early this morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

MIZ087-088-096-061500-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-220206T1500Z/
Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-Eastern Mackinac-
Including the cities of Sault Ste. Marie, Brimley, Kinross, 
Sugar Island, Detour Village, Goetzville, Drummond Island, 
St. Ignace, Brevort, and Les Cheneaux Islands
241 AM EST Sun Feb 6 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Additional snow accumulations of 
  up to one inch and ice accumulations of a light glaze.

* WHERE...Southeast Chippewa, Central Chippewa and Eastern 
  Mackinac Counties.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ086-060900-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-220206T0900Z/
Western Chippewa-
Including the cities of Paradise, Trout Lake, and Rudyard
241 AM EST Sun Feb 6 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY
THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to one inch.

* WHERE...Western Chippewa County.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST early this morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord

283 
WWUS43 KAPX 060909
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
409 AM EST Sun Feb 6 2022

MIZ095-061015-
/O.EXP.KAPX.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-220206T0900Z/
Western Mackinac-
Including the cities of Engadine, Naubinway, and Epoufette
409 AM EST Sun Feb 6 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

$$

MIZ087-088-096-061015-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WW.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-220206T1500Z/
Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-Eastern Mackinac-
Including the cities of Sault Ste. Marie, Brimley, Kinross, 
Sugar Island, Detour Village, Goetzville, Drummond Island, 
St. Ignace, Brevort, and Les Cheneaux Islands
409 AM EST Sun Feb 6 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

MIZ086-061015-
/O.EXP.KAPX.WW.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-220206T0900Z/
Western Chippewa-
Including the cities of Paradise, Trout Lake, and Rudyard
409 AM EST Sun Feb 6 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1239 AM EST Sat Feb 5 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 925 PM EST Fri Feb 4 2022

Sharp upper level trough axis and weak surface reflection has
reached Lake Michigan late this evening. With very little moisture
to work with...only synoptic precip being produced by this system
is very light snow showers/flurries across much of our CWA.
Persistent mid Lake Michigan snow band is trying to push onshore
across portions of our Lake Michigan shoreline around FKS and MBL
as expected...but onshore push is being limited by the opposing
land breeze. Expect this will remain the case as we head into the
overnight hours. Expect majority of any accumulating snow will be
limited to just these shoreline areas from FKS to MBL...with the
rest of our CWA only receiving a dusting of new snow. Certainly
expect another very cold night...but not as cold as last night.
Overnight lows will fall into the single digits above and below
zero.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 336 PM EST Fri Feb 4 2022

...Still cold, but not as cold as last night...

High Impact Weather Potential...Minor. Cold temps/wind chills.
Light snow accums parts of nw lower MI.

A poorly defined 1026mb clipper low is over sw WI. The parent
forcing shortwave is fairly vigorous, but broader MSLP across the
region is quite high, and moisture availability is poor. Snow
shower activity over ne WI has increased, as forcing moves in over
residual lake effect processes in earlier ne low-level flow. There
is a brief transition to weak sw to w 1000-850mb this afternoon
and early evening, before convoluted and still light northerly
flow returns by overnight. Main precip concern is whether lake
effect banding can push onshore into nw lower MI. Temps/wind
chills are the primary concern for most places.

Stronger Lake MI lake effect band is evident on visible sat this
afternoon, seen thru a thin veil of higher clouds. This band is
slowly pressing eastward, and our low-level flow will remain weak
enough for only slow motion to continue. As it gets closer to nw
lower MI, the band will encounter a land breeze. This is at a
relative minimum this afternoon, as land surface temps have
'warmed' into the upper teens. As we move past peak diurnal
heating, the land breeze circulation will strengthen as temps cool
over land. There is probably a window this evening for some
stronger snow showers to reach coastal Manistee Co, and perhaps as
far north as the Dunes and Manitous. Will have 1-2" accums along
the coast in these areas, highest near MBL. Think that by late
evening/overnight, an increasingly dominant land breeze will push
and keep the stronger band offshore. Recent HRRR runs largely jive
with the above thinking.

Cloud cover will initially be fairly extensive, though thin, with
cirrostratus and some mid clouds. As the clipper digs se-ward, and
northerly low-level flow returns, we will see partial clearing
work in from the north toward midnight. Eastern upper and ne lower
MI will see a period of mostly clear skies overnight (though lake
clouds from Superior will spill back into eastern upper very
late). This will contribute to cold temps again tonight, though
not as much as last night. Mins will range from zero to 10 below
in eastern upper, n central and ne lower MI. Single digits above
zero in nw lower MI. Wind chills reach the mid minus teens in
parts of eastern upper MI.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 336 PM EST Fri Feb 4 2022

High Impact Weather Potential: Accumulating snow in eastern Upper
Saturday afternoon/night...potential freezing drizzle across
northern Lower late Saturday night into Sunday...

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Last 24-48hrs has seen the upper level jet max depart the region up
the SW-NE oriented flow as trough axis slides into the Great Lakes
today...leaving Michigan under the left entrance region of the
jet...typically favored for upper level convergence, sinking motion,
and surface high pressure...which resulted in the bitterly cold lows
last night across the area. Upstream...another strong (140+kt) upper-
level jet max is riding the height/thermal gradient on the
downstream side of ridging progressing eastward into the western
Plains. A stronger shortwave crossing into British Columbia is
temporarily smooshing the prevailing western ridge...but it is on
the rebound behind it. Otherwise...a niblet of energy has
disconnected from the flow and is dropping southward along the
California coast.

Shortwave dropping into the Upper Midwest is resulting in some mid-
level moisture and a surface response (1028mb low) zipping
southeastward across the Upper Mississippi Valley...through broad
areas of ~1040mb surface high pressure attempting to control much of
the northern and central CONUS. Stationary boundary extends
northwestward into Alberta (where else?? Seems like it's been there
forever now...) from this surface low, along the baroclinic zone
aloft there...as another area of ~1040mb surface high pressure
slides southeastward into the central Canadian Prairies/northern
Plains...upstream from the area of cold and dry surface high
pressure that moved through last night. This extremely cold and dry
airmass overwhelming the Great Lakes results in lake aggregate
effects showing up on the surface analysis, as latent heating from
the lakes results in a hydrostatically lowered pressure overhead.
(This is slightly harder to see now that the clipper system is
dropping in.) Baroclinic zone across the southeastern US as trough
axis swings into the Great Lakes today results in a continuation of
the SW-NE oriented surface boundary and low pressure slowly trekking
eastward through the Appalachians this morning...taking the bulk of
the moisture along with it.

Going forward...will look for trough axis to swing through the Great
Lakes today/tonight...with a brief ridge moving in ahead of the next
shortwave niblet diving into the flow with a strengthening jet max
moving in as well. As this niblet moves into the Great Lakes
Saturday night into Sunday...ridge across the west coast will
rebound...allowing troughing to take hold of the central CONUS for a
time. However...additional niblets getting underhand-pitched up the
flow by the general area of upper level low heights over the western
Pacific will again shift suppress/shift the ridge eastward going
into Sunday and Monday. This will force the trough axis through the
Great Lakes going into Monday...as the next upstream niblet chugs
through the Canadian Prairies/Northern Plains early next week.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Winds Saturday and Saturday night...Snow
potential Saturday through the period...freezing drizzle potential
later Saturday night into Sunday...

Warm advection will commence Saturday as low-level winds become more
southerly with time, veering with height. Pressure gradient will
tighten as well...suggesting that sustained winds will be a bit
stronger through the period. If we mix up to 925mb...could be
looking at gales along the Lake Michigan coastline...as there are
signals for stronger winds even up at that level off the deck...so
will have to keep that in mind for our Lake Michigan zones (which
will be where better mixing would be expected anyway). Even
so...with somewhat stronger southerly surface winds in play Saturday
night...could be looking at some blowing snow concerns along US-2 in
Mackinac county, as snow gets blown off the ice cover up there in
northern Lake Michigan. Weakening pressure gradient Sunday will
result in decreasing winds with time.

Saturday...as jet max moves through the flow...it may briefly
support some upward forcing with left exit quadrant dynamics in
play...though it doesn't appear overly strong attm. Best forcing
aloft appears to be attributable to the shortwave itself as it comes
on scene later Saturday night...with niblets of energy passing by to
our southwest. There may be some low-level convergence across
southern Mackinac county early on Saturday morning...apparently
largely attributable to mesoscale factors...so may have to keep an
eye on that, perhaps even for our Lake Michigan coastline a little
further south (though nothing overly impressive noted attm).
Otherwise...as flow becomes more southwesterly and then southerly
with time...will look for better boundary layer convergence across
the central UP, with a long fetch over a majority of the length of
Lake Michigan. These signals only grow stronger with time Saturday
evening ahead of the surface system, waning to some degree through
the remainder of the night. Winds appear to become slightly more
southwesterly with time Saturday night into early Sunday
morning...which should shift the position of the band eastward with
time through the night, and lead to some potentially higher snowfall
totals in the Tip of the Mitt for early Sunday. The shifting winds
may help mitigate snowfall totals to some degree...as we'll be more
evenly watering the garden, as opposed to putting a firehose on the
garden all night Saturday night.

Mid-level moisture begins to spread into the region through the
afternoon Saturday into Saturday night...and do see a response in
boundary layer moisture with time as well...likely mainly in the way
of warm advection processes as top down saturation occurs (aided in
S flow areas by existing boundary layer moisture leading to seeder
feeder processes). Over-lake instability appears greatest during the
daylight hours Saturday into early Saturday night...waning with time
as temperatures aloft rise (thanks to warm advection). That being
said...925mb temps look to remain around -8 to -10C for much of the
northern half of Lake Michigan going into early Sunday morning, with
even warmer temps approaching from the south by then, which may help
shut the lake off for a time. Given that overlake instability will
still be decent at the same time as deeper moisture and excellent
low-level convergence will be in play...Saturday afternoon and
particularly evening should see the highest snowfall rates and
totals. Noting continued signals, per model-derived guidance, for
upward motion pegged in a reasonably deep isothermal layer in the
DGZ...snowfall rates and snow-to-liquid ratios (SLRs) could be
rather impressive at times Saturday evening. (This, combined with
the aforementioned stronger winds off Lake Michigan could make
travel rather difficult for parts of US-2 along the coast in
Mackinac county later Saturday into Saturday night.)

Do note some signals that mid-level moisture may hold on a little
firmer into Sunday than previous guidance had suggested...which may
help mitigate the idea of freezing drizzle to some extent. That
being said...there are still signals, particularly in model derived
soundings, of some boundary layer moisture with cloud top
temperatures around -10C or perhaps warmer. -10C is typically a
lower/warmer bound for ice nuclei activation...though some ice
nuclei may become activated at warmer temps than this. (And we have
basically almost zero idea of what kind of ice nuclei are up there
to know whether or not they'll become activated and produce cloud
ice vs. staying supercooled liquid droplets... the temperature
thresholds are more of a probability of cloud ice thing, with higher
probabilities of seeing cloud ice the colder your clouds are.) For
the most part, looks like forcing in this layer should be relatively
minimal late Saturday night into Sunday...but any sort of lift could
produce freezing drizzle (such as upslope flow, which could be a
problem for the interior higher terrain with south/southwesterly
flow). Looks like the best chance for this freezing drizzle crud to
take place will be very late Saturday night into Sunday morning into
part of Sunday...until we get a little deeper moisture to colder
temperatures aloft as the trough axis approaches and slides through,
dragging better moisture aloft (as well as cooler temperatures
aloft) along with it...supportive of a transition back to snow.
Areas across eastern Upper and perhaps the Tip of the Mitt may
remain all snow through the period...though there are some signals
they may flirt with cloud top temps of -10C as well at times into
Sunday. Definitely something to keep an eye on...as temps will be
warmer, but are not overly likely to break the freezing mark.

Otherwise...looks like snow potential should continue on into Sunday
night until the better moisture departs aloft going into Monday...
with 850mb temps dropping Sunday night behind the slow-moving
front/trough aloft...supportive of a) a potential uptick again in
widespread snowfall as the trough moves in (increasing
convergence/lift in areas of moisture), and b) perhaps some lake
effect snow potential behind the system into Monday. Winds becoming
more northerly with time Monday suggests any lake bands will
ultimately shift more offshore through the day. May still see some
kind of west/northwest flow lake effect through the night Sunday
into early Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 336 PM EST Fri Feb 4 2022

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal attm.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

A fair bit of uncertainty comes into the fray for the start of the
extended...as guidance isn't quite sure how to handle that niblet
moving through the Northern Plains/Canadian Prairies. A more
coherent solution would lead to a stronger surface system with more
warm advection ahead of it...whereas as a more out-of-phase,
slightly more nebulous solution for troughing in the northern stream
may not be quite as dramatic. Either way, there are still signals
for troughing to return to the center of the country for a time
toward the middle of next week. There is additional uncertainty with
this, too...as basically the same idea remains -- a more coherent
and unified trough would allow for more direct cold advection into
the northern US...whereas a less unified trough would be a little
more like partially blocking the firehose of cold air. Will have to
keep an eye on this going forward.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1223 AM EST Sat Feb 5 2022

Sharp upper level trough axis and weak surface reflection will
continue to move thru Michigan tonight. Do not expect much in the
way of synoptic snow...but weak low level flow will shift to
west...which will likely push mid lake snow bands over Lake
Michigan into portions of NW Lower Michigan tonight into Saturday
morning... mainly around MBL. Conditions will drop to MVFR/IFR
within some of these snow bands. More widespread snow will begin
to develop from NW to SE Saturday afternoon ahead of a developing
low pressure system moving out of the Northern Plains and into the
Western Great Lakes. Again...mainly MVFR/IFR conditions are
expected as this snow develops. Light/variable winds tonight into
Saturday morning will become southerly at around 10 to 20kts by
Saturday afternoon ahead of that system with some gusts of up to
30kts possible. LLWS is possible at both TVC and PLN Saturday
night into Sunday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 336 PM EST Fri Feb 4 2022

Light winds remain in place into early Saturday, as a weak clipper
crosses the southern lakes. S to sw winds will ramp up
considerably on Saturday, and gales are a distinct possibility on
Lake MI for part of Sat evening.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH from this evening through late tonight for LMZ341-342-
     344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MR
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...FEF
LONG TERM...FEF
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...JZ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
353 PM EST Fri Feb 4 2022

MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-051200-
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-
Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-
Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
353 PM EST Fri Feb 4 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for Eastern Upper Michigan and
Northern Lower Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Cold temperatures and low wind chills are expected again tonight,
primarily across eastern upper Michigan.

Light snow is expected this evening for areas near the coasts of
Leelanau, Benzie, and Manistee counties, mainly from Sleeping Bear
Dunes southward.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Accumulating snow is possible across eastern upper Michigan and
the tip of the mitt Saturday afternoon through Saturday night.
Moderate accumulations of snow, along with blowing and drifting
snow, are expected in parts of eastern upper Michigan. The
heaviest snow will be in western Mackinac County, with significant
impacts possible along the US-2 corridor. While lighter snow is
expected across northern lower Michigan during this same time
frame, freezing drizzle or light freezing rain may mix in at times
Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Cold temperatures and ice development on area rivers and streams
may result in ice jams and localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report snowfall amounts to the National
Weather Service. Reports may be made one of three ways:

Online:    weather.gov/gaylord
Facebook: facebook.com/nwsgaylord
Twitter: twitter.com/nwsgaylord

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-051200-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
353 PM EST Fri Feb 4 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for the northern Michigan
nearshore waters of Lake Huron, Lake Michigan and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Gale force wind gusts are likely on the Lake Michigan nearshore
waters early Saturday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Contact us online via Facebook and Twitter anytime with weather
reports.

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

JZ