Wind Advisory 6, NWS Gaylord, MI

370 
WWUS73 KAPX 050121
NPWAPX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
921 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2022

MIZ016-020-025-031-095-096-098-099-050930-
/O.CON.KAPX.HW.W.0002.221105T1800Z-221106T0900Z/
Emmet-Leelanau-Benzie-Manistee-Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
Including the cities of Petoskey, Northport, Frankfort, Manistee,
Engadine, Naubinway, Epoufette, St. Ignace, Brevort, 
Les Cheneaux Islands, St. James, and Charlevoix
921 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT SATURDAY TO
4 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Emmet, Leelanau, Benzie, Manistee, Western Mackinac, 
  Eastern Mackinac, Beaver Island and surrounding islands and 
  Charlevoix Counties.

* WHEN...From 2 PM EDT Saturday to 4 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

MIZ017-018-021>024-026>030-032>036-041-042-050930-
/O.CON.KAPX.WI.Y.0006.221105T1300Z-221106T1100Z/
Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-
Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-Wexford-Missaukee-
Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Including the cities of Cheboygan, Rogers City, Mancelona, 
Gaylord, Atlanta, Alpena, Traverse City, Kalkaska, Grayling, Mio,
Harrisville, Cadillac, Lake City, Houghton Lake, West Branch, 
Tawas City, Gladwin, and Standish
921 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 6 AM
EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...From 9 AM EDT Saturday to 6 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MIZ086>088-097-050930-
/O.CON.KAPX.WI.Y.0006.221105T1700Z-221106T1100Z/
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Including the cities of Paradise, Trout Lake, Rudyard, 
Sault Ste. Marie, Brimley, Kinross, Sugar Island, Detour Village,
Goetzville, Drummond Island, and Mackinac Island
921 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 6 AM
EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Western Chippewa, Central Chippewa, Southeast Chippewa 
  and Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island.

* WHEN...From 1 PM EDT Saturday to 6 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

781 
WWUS73 KAPX 050657
NPWAPX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
257 AM EDT Sat Nov 5 2022

MIZ021-026-051500-
/O.UPG.KAPX.WI.Y.0006.221105T1300Z-221106T1100Z/
/O.EXA.KAPX.HW.W.0002.221105T1800Z-221106T0900Z/
Antrim-Grand Traverse-
Including the cities of Mancelona and Traverse City
257 AM EDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON TO
4 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Antrim and Grand Traverse Counties.

* WHEN...From 2 PM EDT this afternoon to 4 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

MIZ016-020-025-031-095-096-098-099-051500-
/O.CON.KAPX.HW.W.0002.221105T1800Z-221106T0900Z/
Emmet-Leelanau-Benzie-Manistee-Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
Including the cities of Petoskey, Northport, Frankfort, Manistee,
Engadine, Naubinway, Epoufette, St. Ignace, Brevort, 
Les Cheneaux Islands, St. James, and Charlevoix
257 AM EDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Emmet, Leelanau, Benzie, Manistee, Western Mackinac, 
  Eastern Mackinac, Beaver Island and surrounding islands and 
  Charlevoix Counties.

* WHEN...From 2 PM EDT this afternoon to 4 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

MIZ017-018-022>024-027>030-032>036-041-042-051500-
/O.CON.KAPX.WI.Y.0006.221105T1300Z-221106T1100Z/
Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Kalkaska-
Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-
Gladwin-Arenac-
Including the cities of Cheboygan, Rogers City, Gaylord, Atlanta,
Alpena, Kalkaska, Grayling, Mio, Harrisville, Cadillac, 
Lake City, Houghton Lake, West Branch, Tawas City, Gladwin, 
and Standish
257 AM EDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING TO
6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...From 9 AM EDT this morning to 6 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MIZ086>088-097-051500-
/O.CON.KAPX.WI.Y.0006.221105T1700Z-221106T1100Z/
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Including the cities of Paradise, Trout Lake, Rudyard, 
Sault Ste. Marie, Brimley, Kinross, Sugar Island, Detour Village,
Goetzville, Drummond Island, and Mackinac Island
257 AM EDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Western Chippewa, Central Chippewa, Southeast Chippewa 
  and Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island.

* WHEN...From 1 PM EDT this afternoon to 6 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

380 
WWUS73 KAPX 051423
NPWAPX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1023 AM EDT Sat Nov 5 2022

MIZ016-020-021-025-026-031-095-096-098-099-052300-
/O.CON.KAPX.HW.W.0002.221105T1800Z-221106T0900Z/
Emmet-Leelanau-Antrim-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Manistee-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
Including the cities of Petoskey, Northport, Mancelona, 
Frankfort, Traverse City, Manistee, Engadine, Naubinway, 
Epoufette, St. Ignace, Brevort, Les Cheneaux Islands, St. James, 
and Charlevoix
1023 AM EDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Emmet, Leelanau, Benzie, Manistee, Western Mackinac, 
  Eastern Mackinac, Beaver Island and surrounding islands and 
  Charlevoix Counties.

* WHEN...From 2 PM EDT this afternoon to 4 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

MIZ017-018-022>024-027>030-032>036-041-042-052300-
/O.CON.KAPX.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-221106T1100Z/
Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Kalkaska-
Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-
Gladwin-Arenac-
Including the cities of Cheboygan, Rogers City, Gaylord, Atlanta,
Alpena, Kalkaska, Grayling, Mio, Harrisville, Cadillac, 
Lake City, Houghton Lake, West Branch, Tawas City, Gladwin, 
and Standish
1023 AM EDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...From 9 AM EDT this morning to 6 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MIZ086>088-097-052300-
/O.CON.KAPX.WI.Y.0006.221105T1700Z-221106T1100Z/
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Including the cities of Paradise, Trout Lake, Rudyard, 
Sault Ste. Marie, Brimley, Kinross, Sugar Island, Detour Village,
Goetzville, Drummond Island, and Mackinac Island
1023 AM EDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Western Chippewa, Central Chippewa, Southeast Chippewa 
  and Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island.

* WHEN...From 1 PM EDT this afternoon to 6 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

JZ

924 
WWUS73 KAPX 051945
NPWAPX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
345 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2022

MIZ016-020-021-025-026-031-095-096-098-099-060345-
/O.CON.KAPX.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-221106T0900Z/
Emmet-Leelanau-Antrim-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Manistee-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
Including the cities of Petoskey, Northport, Mancelona, 
Frankfort, Traverse City, Manistee, Engadine, Naubinway, 
Epoufette, St. Ignace, Brevort, Les Cheneaux Islands, St. James, 
and Charlevoix
345 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* WHERE...Emmet, Leelanau, Antrim, Benzie, Grand Traverse, 
  Manistee, Western Mackinac, Eastern Mackinac, Beaver Island 
  and surrounding islands and Charlevoix Counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

MIZ017-018-022>024-027>030-032>036-041-042-060345-
/O.CON.KAPX.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-221106T1100Z/
Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Kalkaska-
Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-
Gladwin-Arenac-
Including the cities of Cheboygan, Rogers City, Gaylord, Atlanta,
Alpena, Kalkaska, Grayling, Mio, Harrisville, Cadillac, 
Lake City, Houghton Lake, West Branch, Tawas City, Gladwin, 
and Standish
345 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MIZ086>088-097-060345-
/O.CON.KAPX.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-221106T1100Z/
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Including the cities of Paradise, Trout Lake, Rudyard, 
Sault Ste. Marie, Brimley, Kinross, Sugar Island, Detour Village,
Goetzville, Drummond Island, and Mackinac Island
345 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* WHERE...Western Chippewa, Central Chippewa, Southeast Chippewa 
  and Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

JZ

314 
WWUS73 KAPX 060131
NPWAPX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
931 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2022

MIZ016-020-021-025-026-031-095-096-098-099-060900-
/O.CON.KAPX.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-221106T0900Z/
Emmet-Leelanau-Antrim-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Manistee-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
Including the cities of Petoskey, Northport, Mancelona, 
Frankfort, Traverse City, Manistee, Engadine, Naubinway, 
Epoufette, St. Ignace, Brevort, Les Cheneaux Islands, St. James, 
and Charlevoix
931 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* WHERE...Emmet, Leelanau, Antrim, Benzie, Grand Traverse, 
  Manistee, Western Mackinac, Eastern Mackinac, Beaver Island 
  and surrounding islands and Charlevoix Counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

MIZ017-018-022>024-027>030-032>036-041-042-060945-
/O.CON.KAPX.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-221106T1100Z/
Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Kalkaska-
Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-
Gladwin-Arenac-
Including the cities of Cheboygan, Rogers City, Gaylord, Atlanta,
Alpena, Kalkaska, Grayling, Mio, Harrisville, Cadillac, 
Lake City, Houghton Lake, West Branch, Tawas City, Gladwin, 
and Standish
931 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MIZ086>088-097-060945-
/O.CON.KAPX.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-221106T1100Z/
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Including the cities of Paradise, Trout Lake, Rudyard, 
Sault Ste. Marie, Brimley, Kinross, Sugar Island, Detour Village,
Goetzville, Drummond Island, and Mackinac Island
931 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* WHERE...Western Chippewa, Central Chippewa, Southeast Chippewa 
  and Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

185 
WWUS73 KAPX 060652
NPWAPX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
152 AM EST Sun Nov 6 2022

MIZ016-020-021-025-026-031-095-096-098-099-060800-
/O.CAN.KAPX.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-221106T0900Z/
Emmet-Leelanau-Antrim-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Manistee-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
Including the cities of Petoskey, Northport, Mancelona, 
Frankfort, Traverse City, Manistee, Engadine, Naubinway, 
Epoufette, St. Ignace, Brevort, Les Cheneaux Islands, St. James, 
and Charlevoix
152 AM EST Sun Nov 6 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

Winds have decreased across the region. There could still be a
few gusts in the 30 to 35 mph range early this morning. 

$$

MIZ017-018-022>024-027>030-032>036-041-042-086>088-097-060800-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-221106T1100Z/
Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Kalkaska-
Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-
Gladwin-Arenac-Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-
Southeast Chippewa-Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Including the cities of Cheboygan, Rogers City, Gaylord, Atlanta,
Alpena, Kalkaska, Grayling, Mio, Harrisville, Cadillac, 
Lake City, Houghton Lake, West Branch, Tawas City, Gladwin, 
Standish, Paradise, Trout Lake, Rudyard, Sault Ste. Marie, 
Brimley, Kinross, Sugar Island, Detour Village, Goetzville, 
Drummond Island, and Mackinac Island
152 AM EST Sun Nov 6 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds have decreased across the region. There could still be a
few gusts in the 30 to 35 mph range early this morning. 

$$

AJS

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
344 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2022

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 340 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2022

...Soggy...

High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal. Locally heavy rain, but no
flooding expected.

Cold front is edging up to ISQ-ERY, and will drop into northern
lower MI this evening. The front stalls out overhead, then returns
northward again late in the overnight, as low pressure deepens
upstream in the mid MS Valley. Stronger isentropic ascent into the
incoming front is contributing to developing rain, with showers
moving into western sections of the forecast area.

Reasonably widespread precip will continue to develop into the area
over the next few hours, and remain in place until early overnight.
The far se, which never exits the warm sector, will see lower pops
than elsewhere (even noting that there are some showers down that
way now). MuCape values hit 200-300j/kg on the high end into this
evening before dwindling. So the best chance for isolated thunder
will be into this evening. Pops/precip rates will fall off somewhat
after 3-4am, as the warm sector reasserts itself across more of
northern MI, and as the best forcing reorganizes westward in WI.

PWAT values are quite high for November, 1.0-1.25" near the incoming
frontal zone. Precip rates/amounts will also be unseasonably high.
Rainfall totals for the rest of the day thru tonight will be around
an inch over the nw 2/3ds of the forecast area, with lesser totals
to the se. Locally higher amounts could approach 2". This should not
result in any sort of flooding threat.

Min temps tonight will range from the low-mid 40s in eastern upper
MI, to the mid-upper 50s near Saginaw Bay.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 340 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2022

High Impact Weather Potential:  Storm force winds/high wind warnings
Saturday into Saturday night...

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Southwesterly flow through the column across the MS Valley into the
Upper Great Lakes...as a longwave trough axis shifts eastward into
the Plains, extending from Hudson Bay down into NM. 120+kt jet max
aloft poking into the Upper Midwest this morning...with additionally
strong jet energy/anomalous moisture advection poking into the Pac
NW...ahead of another upper level trough sliding through the Gulf of
Alaska. Plume of steepening lapse rates aloft ahead of this upper
trough axis...not quite collocated with anomalous moisture plume
(pwats approaching an inch here with the 12z/04 ob at APX) also
ahead of the trough axis, but nearly so...with some convection
firing across the central Plains into the Mid MS Valley along the
strong SW-NE oriented BCZ. Surface reflection of this is a cold
front which extends from James Bay down into western TX...with a
handful of surface lows along the way...primarily in the Panhandle
of TX and near the Keweenaw and central WI as of 12z/04...with
1030mb surface high sitting along/near the East Coast...further
aiding in strengthening of the pressure gradient across the Great
Lakes. Our CWA firmly in the warm sector attm...with pre-dawn temps
warm enough to do the 12z balloon launch in shirt sleeves for the
4th day of November.

Looking ahead...anomalous base of the upper trough over the
southwestern US will begin to lift northeastward along the flow
through the night tonight into Saturday...as that energy in the Pac
NW this morning begins to cross the northwestern US. Anticipate
rapid cyclogenesis over the Upper Midwest...with surface low to
track just to our northwest through western Upper Michigan. Will
look for cold fropa during the afternoon Saturday...with a
strengthening pressure gradient behind as a secondary trough swings
through as well. A brief period of height rises expected behind this
for Saturday night...before that northern stream niblet plows in
from the west for Sunday...ultimately resulting in a secondary front
sliding into the region. Looks as though this front will begin to
stall zonally across the region...as another anomalous trough digs
into the western US Monday, amplifying the upstream pattern...and
resulting in rising heights and surface pressures here going into
the start of the extended.

Primary Forecast Concerns:  Winds through the period (particularly
Saturday)...rain/storm potential...

Though winds do look strong still for Saturday evening as the
secondary cold front swings through...there is some uncertainty in
just how strong the pressure gradient will be...which will have
ramifications on how strong the sustained winds will end up.
Additionally, there remains some uncertainty in boundary layer wind
strength, which could play a role in gust potential...though winds
aloft (in the 85700mb range) look a little more
certain...potentially making a run at 80kts at 700mb late Saturday
ahead of the front...and 850mb pretty easily running over 60kts at
times through the day, particularly along the Lake Michigan coast
early in the day. An initial inversion will begin to wane..and as it
does so, it should immediately begin to transport some of those
stronger winds down from aloft...though whether we will be able to
reach that 80kt level is a little unclear. Once the inversion starts
to break down...and depending on what level it ends up
at...anticipate we will pretty easily mix down some of those
stronger winds right off the deck. So gusts easily in the realm of
40kts are likely across a bulk of the area at times, though the
greatest threat will be NW Lower. Do have good confidence we'll gust
into the 50-60kt range, and do have concerns we may gust in excess
of 60kts at times, particularly going through the latter half of the
day into the evening...though if by some chance some of the showers
with the cold front are able to drag down the even stronger winds
from aloft...could be looking at some "severe showers" with more
intense bursts of winds from aloft. Additionally...behind the cold
front...as the secondary trough and tight pressure gradient swings
through...anticipate some potential we could see gusts enhanced by
isallobaric influences for a brief time Saturday evening across NW
Lower...though again, just how strong the gusts end up is a little
unclear given some uncertainty attm.

As stalled frontal boundary begins to lift back north as warm front
Saturday morning...anticipate some continued warm advection precip
should continue...particularly across the eastern UP...though some
uncertainty in exactly where this hangs up will be critical. Will
have to monitor this area for localized heavy rainfall, if precip
continues to track over the same areas along this boundary...noting
flow will be largely parallel to the boundary, and pwats look
anomalously high (near an inch).

Anticipate a line of convection should move through Saturday
morning/midday into the afternoon as the cold front sweeps through
from west to east with this system winding up just to our west.
Attm...not a ton of instability anticipated overall...though there
should be some, as a dry slot shoves its way into the region along
the back of the cold front...with some potential for an additional
round of showers to slide through late Saturday afternoon/evening
with the secondary trough. Whether there is thunder is somewhat
uncertain, as instability may have trouble reaching the mixed-phase
layer...but some elevated instability is possible at times,
particularly early. Would not be surprised to get some brief
localized heavier rainfall at any point along the cold front...as
pwats do look to approach 1.5 inches toward our southeastern zones
Monday afternoon ahead of the front...but looks as though the cold
front should be progressive enough to keep things from hanging out
in any one location too long...and best synoptic forcing looks to
remain across the eastern UP as well.

Looks as though a break in the action is possible for a time
Saturday night...before the next niblet approaches from the west
late Saturday night into early Sunday morning. That being said...for
a time Saturday night behind the cold front...925mb temps do drop
enough that there could be some overlake instability generation and
perhaps some shallow, lake-based nuisance activity in southwest flow
areas, particularly early in the night...as 925mb temps rise again
toward morning.

A bit of warm advection precip is possible Sunday morning...and
precip could linger into Sunday afternoon along and ahead of the
next front dropping in...particularly across the eastern UP...as
that niblet punches its way across the northern tier of the
US...leading to slight northwesterly flow across the area for
Monday. With 925mb temps falling again...close enough to have some
concern for overlake instability in the presence of some lingering
boundary layer moisture...anticipate there could be some lake-based
showers, especially across the eastern UP. Some of these could be in
the form of snow, as it will be cooler Monday, especially up that
way. This is not a sure bet, though...given that some guidance is
much drier in the boundary layer for Monday...so will be something
to keep an eye on.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 340 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2022

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal attm...watching potential for
unsettled weather next week...

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Strongly anomalous pattern developing for the start of next
week...as anomalous troughing digs into the western US...resulting
in height rises and surface pressure rises across the eastern US,
including the Great Lakes. As troughing makes its way into the
Rockies...anticipate we should see another round of cyclogenesis
across the Plains into the Upper Midwest...with another round of
potentially strong southerly/southwesterly flow for the middle of
next week...likely resulting in another round of unsettled, and
perhaps mild, weather. A lot of uncertainty currently exists with
respect to the forecast for the latter half of the week, though...as
guidance is struggling with timing/placement of features...as well
as depth of features...but there are some signals we could turn
colder toward the end of next week and beyond. Will certainly keep
an eye on this as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 155 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2022

Worsening conditions into tonight.

A cold front will ease into northern lower MI late today, then
stall. Showers and a few thunderstorms will develop beginning this
afternoon, and continuing thru and beyond this forecast.
Cigs/vsbys will fall off after precip arrives. Expect IFR cigs to
develop for much of tonight, with some improvement late tonight
into Sat morning.

Gusty s to sw winds today, diminishing somewhat tonight, then
drastically increasing on Saturday. LLWS at times tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 340 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2022

Strong winds still expected this weekend. A cold front will sag
south into northern MI this evening, then stall and return
northward late tonight. The front will then blast eastward across
the area, behind departing strengthening low pressure. S to ssw
post-frontal winds should reach storm force on Lake MI, with gales
elsewhere.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...High Wind Warning from 2 PM EDT Saturday to 4 AM EST Sunday for
     MIZ016-020-025-031-095-096-098-099.
     Wind Advisory from 9 AM EDT Saturday to 6 AM EST Sunday for
     MIZ017-018-021>024-026>030-032>036-041-042.
     Wind Advisory from 1 PM EDT Saturday to 6 AM EST Sunday for
     MIZ086>088-097.
LH...Gale Warning from noon EDT Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for
     LHZ345>349.
LM...Gale Warning from 2 PM EDT Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday for
     LMZ323.
     Storm Warning from 2 PM EDT Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday
     for LMZ341-342-344>346.
LS...Gale Warning from 6 PM EDT Saturday to 4 AM EST Sunday for
     LSZ321-322.

&&

NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...FEF
LONG TERM...FEF
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JZ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1029 AM EDT Fri Nov 4 2022

MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-051200-
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-
Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-
Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
1029 AM EDT Fri Nov 4 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for Eastern Upper Michigan and
Northern Lower Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Locally heavy rain is possible across portions of northwest lower
and eastern upper Michigan this afternoon and tonight. While
widespread flooding is not expected, significant rises on area
rivers and ponding of water on roads are possible.

A few thunderstorms are possible through tonight. Severe weather
is not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Very strong and potentially damaging southwest winds are expected
across northern Michigan Saturday into Saturday evening. Wind
gusts over 50 mph are likely across parts of the outlook
area...especially along the Lake Michigan coast.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather and
rainfall amounts to the National Weather Service. Reports may be
made one of three ways:

Online:   weather.gov/gaylord
Facebook: facebook.com/nwsgaylord
Twitter:  twitter.com/nwsgaylord

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-051200-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
1029 AM EDT Fri Nov 4 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for the northern Michigan
nearshore waters of Lake Huron, Lake Michigan and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A few thunderstorms are possible through tonight. Severe weather
is not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Gale and storm force wind gusts are likely Saturday afternoon and
evening across our nearshore waters. Please see the latest marine
weather statements and nearshore forecasts for additional
details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

JZ