Wind Advisory 5, NWS Gaylord, MI

392 
WWUS73 KAPX 171349
NPWAPX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
949 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022

MIZ086-172200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WI.Y.0005.221017T1800Z-221019T0600Z/
Western Chippewa-
Including the cities of Paradise, Trout Lake, and Rudyard
949 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Coastal areas of western Chippewa County.

* WHEN...From 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MIZ016-020-021-025-031-099-172200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WI.Y.0005.221017T1800Z-221019T0600Z/
Emmet-Leelanau-Antrim-Benzie-Manistee-Charlevoix-
Including the cities of Petoskey, Northport, Mancelona, 
Frankfort, Manistee, and Charlevoix
949 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...North to northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 
  45 mph expected.

* WHERE...Coastal areas of Emmet, Leelanau, Antrim, Benzie, 
  Manistee and Charlevoix Counties.

* WHEN...From 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

096 
WWUS73 KAPX 171945
NPWAPX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
345 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022

MIZ026-098-180345-
/O.EXA.KAPX.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-221019T0600Z/
Grand Traverse-Beaver Island and surrounding islands-
Including the cities of Traverse City and St. James
345 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Grand Traverse and Beaver Island and surrounding 
  islands Counties.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MIZ086-180345-
/O.CON.KAPX.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-221019T0600Z/
Western Chippewa-
Including the cities of Paradise, Trout Lake, and Rudyard
345 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Western Chippewa County.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MIZ016-020-021-025-031-099-180345-
/O.CON.KAPX.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-221019T0600Z/
Emmet-Leelanau-Antrim-Benzie-Manistee-Charlevoix-
Including the cities of Petoskey, Northport, Mancelona, 
Frankfort, Manistee, and Charlevoix
345 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Emmet, Leelanau, Antrim, Benzie, Manistee and 
  Charlevoix Counties.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

609 
WWUS73 KAPX 180149
NPWAPX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
949 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022

MIZ086-181000-
/O.CON.KAPX.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-221019T0600Z/
Western Chippewa-
Including the cities of Paradise, Trout Lake, and Rudyard
949 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* WHERE...Western Chippewa County.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MIZ016-020-021-025-026-031-098-099-181000-
/O.CON.KAPX.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-221019T0600Z/
Emmet-Leelanau-Antrim-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Manistee-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
Including the cities of Petoskey, Northport, Mancelona, 
Frankfort, Traverse City, Manistee, St. James, and Charlevoix
949 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. A few
  gusts in excess of 55 mph cannot be ruled out along the Lake
  Michigan shoreline.

* WHERE...Emmet, Leelanau, Antrim, Benzie, Grand Traverse, 
  Manistee, Beaver Island and surrounding islands and Charlevoix 
  Counties.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

128 
WWUS73 KAPX 180826
NPWAPX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
426 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022

MIZ086-181630-
/O.CON.KAPX.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-221019T0600Z/
Western Chippewa-
Including the cities of Paradise, Trout Lake, and Rudyard
426 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Western Chippewa County.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MIZ016-020-021-025-026-031-098-099-181630-
/O.CON.KAPX.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-221019T0600Z/
Emmet-Leelanau-Antrim-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Manistee-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
Including the cities of Petoskey, Northport, Mancelona, 
Frankfort, Traverse City, Manistee, St. James, and Charlevoix
426 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Emmet, Leelanau, Antrim, Benzie, Grand Traverse, 
  Manistee, Beaver Island and surrounding islands and Charlevoix 
  Counties.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

JZ

552 
WWUS73 KAPX 181416
NPWAPX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1016 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022

MIZ086-182230-
/O.CON.KAPX.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-221019T0600Z/
Western Chippewa-
Including the cities of Paradise, Trout Lake, and Rudyard
1016 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* WHERE...Western Chippewa County.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MIZ016-020-021-025-026-031-098-099-182230-
/O.CON.KAPX.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-221019T0600Z/
Emmet-Leelanau-Antrim-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Manistee-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
Including the cities of Petoskey, Northport, Mancelona, 
Frankfort, Traverse City, Manistee, St. James, and Charlevoix
1016 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Emmet, Leelanau, Antrim, Benzie, Grand Traverse, 
  Manistee, Beaver Island and surrounding islands and Charlevoix 
  Counties.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

424 
WWUS73 KAPX 181934
NPWAPX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
334 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022

MIZ086-190345-
/O.CON.KAPX.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-221019T0600Z/
Western Chippewa-
Including the cities of Paradise, Trout Lake, and Rudyard
334 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* WHERE...Western Chippewa County.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MIZ016-020-021-025-026-031-098-099-190345-
/O.CON.KAPX.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-221019T0600Z/
Emmet-Leelanau-Antrim-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Manistee-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
Including the cities of Petoskey, Northport, Mancelona, 
Frankfort, Traverse City, Manistee, St. James, and Charlevoix
334 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* WHERE...Emmet, Leelanau, Antrim, Benzie, Grand Traverse, 
  Manistee, Beaver Island and surrounding islands and Charlevoix 
  Counties.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

591 
WWUS73 KAPX 190214
NPWAPX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1014 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022

MIZ086-190600-
/O.CON.KAPX.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-221019T0600Z/
Western Chippewa-
Including the cities of Paradise, Trout Lake, and Rudyard
1014 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Western Chippewa County.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MIZ016-020-021-025-026-031-098-099-190600-
/O.CON.KAPX.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-221019T0600Z/
Emmet-Leelanau-Antrim-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Manistee-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
Including the cities of Petoskey, Northport, Mancelona, 
Frankfort, Traverse City, Manistee, St. James, and Charlevoix
1014 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Emmet, Leelanau, Antrim, Benzie, Grand Traverse, 
  Manistee, Beaver Island and surrounding islands and Charlevoix 
  Counties.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

323 
WWUS73 KAPX 190601
NPWAPX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
201 AM EDT Wed Oct 19 2022

MIZ016-020-021-025-026-031-086-098-099-190715-
/O.EXP.KAPX.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-221019T0600Z/
Emmet-Leelanau-Antrim-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Manistee-
Western Chippewa-Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
Including the cities of Petoskey, Northport, Mancelona, 
Frankfort, Traverse City, Manistee, Paradise, Trout Lake, 
Rudyard, St. James, and Charlevoix
201 AM EDT Wed Oct 19 2022

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
314 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...Deep Fall Storm to bring a variety of Weather Concerns...

High Impact Weather Potential: Increasingly gusty winds and
potential for accumulating snow, especially later tonight into
Tuesday.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

One busy forecast shift, courtesy of rapidly deepening overhead
trough and strong meridional upper level jet core digging south into
the upper Mississippi Valley. Attendant increasing deep layer
forcing within an increasingly favorable lake enhancement regime
kicking off numerous showers across the Northwoods. Precipitation
has remained liquid (at least so far), with a well mixed low level
environment and corridor of best cold air advection remaining to our
west keeping a relatively deep surface-rooted melting layer. Surface
low pressure just starting to get its act together across the "warm"
waters of eastern Lake Huron, with lake enhanced surface trough
extending back west from it...dropping south across northern lower
Michigan this morning.

Cold core gyre will only intensify with time as it ever so slowly
pivots east into southeast Ontario by this evening, only then to
retrograde back northwest into Lake Huron by Tuesday morning.
Maturing eastern lakes thermal gradient (partially driven by the
lakes themselves) will help deepen the surface response, with sub
1000mb low pressure expected to tuck right under parent mid level
circulation by morning...all-the-while 1030+mb Canadian high
pressure digs south into the northern Plains. Combination of all the
above setting the stage for one relatively high impact fall storm to
besiege the Great Lakes for the next few days.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges:

All kind of concerns/challenges...with main focus on accumulating
snow potential and increasingly gusty winds. Headline management
will also need to be considered.

Details:

Forecast concerns only increase with time today and tonight as that
low deepens off to our east. Passage of sharp surface trough this
morning backs cloud bearing winds decidedly more north-northwest,
directing lake enhanced showers into those favored flow areas. Lake
support will remain robust, with lake-induced cape values in excess
of 1k Joules/kg and equilibrium levels in excess of 20k feet.
Isolated thunder is definitely possible, especially off northern
Lake Michigan with evidence of robust updrafts through the ice
producing layer. Good news is lake modification to the low level
environment will be extreme, and when combined with best cold air
advection remaining to our west, should keep the melting layer deep
enough to support rain as the primary precipitation type. Still
wouldn't be shocked to see graupel and brief periods of rain/snow
mix across interior areas, especially given steep low level lapse
rates.

Lake processes in north-northwest flow favored areas continues
unabated tonight, with impressive thermodynamic and kinematic
profiles remaining. However, to complicate things further, strong
evidence for trowal like feature to rotate back southwest into our
area later tonight, expanding synoptic support and further deepening
the moisture profile. Expect showers to increase across much of
northern lower Michigan, with forced upslope flow only helping the
cause for areas along and north of M-72. What type the precipitation
takes remains a significant forecast challenge. Best cold air
advection remains to our west tonight, and gusty winds (will talk
about that more to follow) will keep the low level environment well
mixed. Again, will shy away from all statistical guidance
temperature contribution, using raw guidance output and adjust as
needed. This again keeps temperatures a smidge above freezing across
interior areas, and several degrees above freezing in those lake
modified zones. Melting layer does shrink with time across interior
areas, definitely supporting a mix of rain/snow or even complete
changeover later tonight. Will continue to significantly lower snow-
to-liquid ratios given the expected warmer near-surface environment.
Upshot to the above, do think (as of now at least) that snow
accumulations will struggle, with most areas likely remaining at or
below an inch by morning, with perhaps up to two inches in the
higher locations around Gaylord and Cadillac. Of course, bursts of
heavier snow could still bring some travel impacts by the Tuesday
morning commute. Definitely continue to monitor the forecast as we
head into tonight.

Winds: Pressure gradient ramps up significantly today and tonight.
Expect frequent gusts this afternoon and tonight in excess of 25 to
30 mph across most areas. However, coastal areas of Lake Michigan
and Whitefish Bay will likely see significant higher gusts with
momentum off the waters (deep over-water instability will promote
much stronger winds over those waters). Will likely need wind
advisories for several coastal counties by tonight with wind gusts
exceeding 45 mph at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022

High Impact Weather Potential: Messy rain/snow junk Tuesday
into Wednesday...strong winds/gusts Tuesday into part of Tuesday
night...

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Lobe of energy already diving into the Great Lakes as of 3z/17,
accompanied by strong height falls...with nearly meridional 120+kt
jet pointing down into the Upper Midwest from northern Canada over
strong baroclinic zone aloft. Northern stream of the flow remains
quite amplified...with anomalous ridging over western Canada, and
troughing poking down into the eastern CONUS. Steepening mid-level
lapse rates settling in over the Upper Lakes as cold advection takes
over, with 850mb temps as cold as -12C over Manitoba/Ontario to our
northwest...and synoptic moisture deepens. 850mb low starting to
close off over us, positively tilted and centered over southeastern
Ontario. As of 3z/17...already occluding surface low is centered on
the downstream side of this...over southwestern Quebec...with
remainder of the surface boundary following the baroclinic zone
southwestward into TX; and additional surface cold front following
the BCZ aloft from the central Plains up into the Canadian
Rockies...with confluence zone across the southern US keeping the
bulk of the better moisture across the southern US.
Meanwhile...watching a cold front sweep down toward us from
Ontario...which is crossing western Lake Superior as of 0z...with
anomalous 1033mb surface high sliding into Manitoba.

As energy continues to dive into the base of the trough...surface
low will continue to occlude quite rapidly to our east/northeast
following the passage of the cold front to our north as of 3z/17.
Energy already beginning to drive inland tonight on the West Coast
will make its way over the ridge with time this week, dropping into
the back of the anomalous troughing hanging out in our vicinity by
Wednesday morning. In the meantime...upper low and its occluded
surface reflection will continue to spin around just to our
northeast...with signals for a surface trough to swing through the
area again Tuesday...as surface low pressure areas spread northward
toward James Bay with energy spiraling around the upper low. This
will keep strong northerly flow in the region for a time...with
things beginning to wane later Wednesday as additional energy
entering the West Coast will begin to flatten the ridge out
west...and finally start to eject the upper trough northeastward.

Primary Forecast Concerns:  Continued rain/snow (accumulating snow?)
potential and continuation of winds into at least Tuesday...

Lobe of energy swinging through early Tuesday will drag yet another
surface trough through the area. This should result in enhancement
of synoptic/lake-enhanced precipitation already ongoing...with a
shift from more NNW ahead of the front...to N/NNE perhaps toward
afternoon behind the front. Slight low-level warm advection
associated with this...as warmer air continues to wrap around the
north side of the low...though mid-level lapse rates look to remain
steep as cold air hangs on aloft amid reasonably deep moisture
through late Tuesday afternoon. Guidance points toward wet-bulb
temps aloft remaining a little more supportive of a mix of snow/rain
across the interior higher terrain of northern Lower and perhaps
eastern Upper into the daytime Tuesday...and again beyond.
Anticipate NNW flow lake convection could be somewhat intense at
times, given some signals for low-level CAPE to enhance updraft
strength...though with soundings pointing at an inversion/more
stable layer just to the warm side of the DGZ...indicating that if
snow is to fall, it would likely be the heavier/wetter variety;
strong winds will also diminish SLRs. Main question will
remain...will it snow during the day, and if so, will it stick?
Better chance of this will be Tuesday morning and perhaps again
later Tuesday afternoon...and with signals pointing toward good
convergence along the Lake Superior coast...anticipate the eastern
UP may have one of the better shots at seeing accumulating snow,
despite some wind shifts, as northerly flow will remain somewhat
more favorable for lake effect for them compared to parts of
northern Lower. This being said...signals point at the coasts being
under the gun as well...though nearer the coasts, there is a greater
potential for it to remain more rain than snow.

Going into Tuesday night, flow looks a little more
northnorthwesterly as the surface low begins to pivot away. With
deeper moisture lingering in the area, and more than sufficient
overlake instability continuing into Wednesday and Wednesday
night...looks as though lake-based convection will hang around for a
while. Guidance does seem to point toward moisture trying to
diminish for a time Wednesday, though this may be enhanced one more
time later Wednesday night by that energy diving into the backside
of the trough and/or energy pinwheeling around from the north again.
As deeper moisture does depart, perhaps as early as Tuesday
night...will have to keep an eye out for ice nuclei activation
issues to come into play...though attm...we have much bigger fish to
fry in the nearer term. In the meantime...given that moisture
doesn't look quite as deep for Tuesday night into
Wednesday...inversion heights fall...and flow begins to
wane...anticipate things may begin to slow down a bit across the
bulk of the area...with NW flow areas, particularly of the eastern
UP, holding onto snow the longest.

Winds will remain strong right on into Tuesday...likely into the
first part of Tuesday night at least, diminishing with time toward
morning. As such, have opted to extend gale warning for Lake
Michigan through 6z Wed for now, as guidance points toward gales
holding on at least that long. Pressure gradient with this system
will be very strong...and align with the bulk of Lake Michigan, such
that the strongest winds may ultimately remain just offshore. That
being said...it will still be windy along the Lake Michigan and Lake
Superior coasts in particular, with sustained winds strong enough to
support hoisting wind advisories through Tuesday. As anomalously
strong 850mb N-NNW oriented LLJ slides in Tuesday
morning...have concerns that gusts could at least reach storm force
on the Lake Michigan nearshores of NW Lower (Manistee to Northport
in particular...perhaps )...but for now will hold at high-end gales.
Additionally...I also have concerns we may reach high wind warning
criteria gusts Tuesday morning as that LLJ passes by, in these same
areas...with some probabilistic guidance trying to hint at gusts
of at least 50kts for Manistee Tuesday morning...so will certainly
have to keep an eye on this. Do have gusts up to around 45kts along
the coast there (Manistee-Leelanau in particular, though Antrim may
get in on it, too) Tuesday morning for now though. In the
meantime...with the strong northerly component to the wind
channeling its way down Grand Traverse Bay...have opted to hoist a
lakeshore flood advisory given the favorable flow for those types of
impacts. Definitely a good event to wonder at the power of nature
from a SAFE distance (i.e., not piers/jetties...not the edge of the
surf...etc.).

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal attm...

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

As mentioned at the end of the short term synopsis...looks as though
energy sliding across the top of the ridge will start to flatten
it...and help eject the upper low northeastward with time through
the end of the week. Things may not be completely quiet...as that
energy slides by to our north Friday and Saturday, with some warm
advection returning to the area. Pattern looks somewhat complex
going into the weekend...with some uncertainty...as additional
energy digs into the West Coast. At this point...signals point
toward a shift to troughing-west, ridging-east...which, while
warmer, could keep things a little more active as well, given
increased potential for Gulf Moisture transport. Will be something
to watch going forward.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday evening)
Issued at 1059 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022

Unsettled weather remains the rule across northern Michigan through
the entirety of the TAF period. MVFR cigs expected to prevail for
much of the period, although some drops to IFR not out of the
question, especially in heavier showers. Numerous showers will
continue, potentially mixing with a bit of snow late tonight across
parts of the area. Generally light winds tonight turn out of the
north-northwest Monday morning, becoming increasingly gusty through
the day into Monday night. More widespread snow chances arrive
Monday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022

Very high impact period of weather across the big waters as deep low
pressure slowly pivots across the eastern Great Lakes. Strong
pressure gradient within a very unstable over-water thermal
environment will bring widespread gales to Lake Michigan and
Whitefish Bay this afternoon through Tuesday. May even see some
isolated storm force wind gusts at times. Winds will be a bit slower
to pick up across Lake Huron, but still think a period of gales is
possible across the northern third of that lake. Will adjust
headlines accordingly. Winds gradually subside Tuesday night into
Wednesday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for
     MIZ016-020-021-025-031-086-099.
     Lakeshore Flood Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT
     Wednesday for MIZ026.
LH...Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for
     LHZ345>349.
LM...Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
LS...Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for
     LSZ322.
     Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for LSZ321.
&&

NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...FEF
LONG TERM...FEF
AVIATION...MJG
MARINE...MSB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
326 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022

MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-181200-
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-
Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-
Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
326 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for Eastern Upper Michigan and
Northern Lower Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a slight chance for thunderstorms today across portions
of northwest Lower Michigan. No severe weather is expected.

Very gusty north to northwest winds will impact the coastal areas
of Lake Michigan and Lake Superior this afternoon and tonight.
Please see the latest wind advisory for additional details.

Slushy snow accumulation is possible later tonight across the
interior highlands of northern lower Michigan. Some impact to the
Tuesday morning commute is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Very gusty north to northwest winds will continue to impact the
coastal areas of Lake Michigan and Lake Superior through Tuesday
evening. Please see the latest wind advisory for additional
details.

Accumulating snow may lead to travel impacts Tuesday through
Wednesday, especially across interior areas of eastern upper and
northwest lower Michigan.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather,
rainfall amounts, and snowfall amounts to the National Weather
Service. Reports may be made one of three ways:

Online:   weather.gov/gaylord
Facebook: facebook.com/nwsgaylord
Twitter:  twitter.com/nwsgaylord

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-181200-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
326 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for the northern Michigan
nearshore waters of Lake Huron, Lake Michigan and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a slight chance for thunderstorms today across portions
of northern Lake Michigan. No severe weather is expected.

Gale force wind gusts are expected through tonight on all of our
nearshore waters. Please see the latest gale warnings for
additional details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Gale force wind gusts will continue through Tuesday evening on all
of our nearshore waters. In addition, isolated storm force wind
gusts are possible Tuesday on northern Lake Michigan. Please see
the latest gale warnings for additional details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.