Storm Warning 5, NWS Gaylord, MI

213 
WHUS73 KAPX 150251
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
951 PM EST Wed Dec 14 2022

LSZ321-322-151100-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0040.000000T0000Z-221216T0000Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
951 PM EST Wed Dec 14 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 45 kts from the east and highest 
  waves around 8 feet.

* WHERE...Whitefish Bay (U. S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point 
  Iroquois MI and St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. 
  Potagannissing Bay.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ345>349-151100-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0040.000000T0000Z-221215T2100Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
951 PM EST Wed Dec 14 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 45 kts from the east and highest 
  waves around 17 feet.

* WHERE...Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge 
  including Mackinac Island, St Ignace to False Detour Channel, 
  5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including 
  Bois Blanc Island, Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI 
  Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary and Sturgeon 
  Pt to Alabaster MI.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ323-341-342-344>346-151100-
/O.CON.KAPX.SR.W.0005.000000T0000Z-221215T1500Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
951 PM EST Wed Dec 14 2022

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 55 kts from the east and highest 
  waves around 11 feet.

* WHERE...Portions of Lake Michigan. 

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

427 
WHUS73 KAPX 150516
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1216 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2022

LHZ345>347-151330-
/O.UPG.KAPX.GL.W.0040.000000T0000Z-221215T2100Z/
/O.EXA.KAPX.SR.W.0005.000000T0000Z-221215T1500Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
1216 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2022

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 50 kts from the east and highest 
  waves around 17 feet.

* WHERE...Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge 
  including Mackinac Island, St Ignace to False Detour Channel 
  and 5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI 
  including Bois Blanc Island.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ321-322-151330-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0040.000000T0000Z-221216T0000Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
1216 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 45 kts from the east and highest 
  waves around 8 feet.

* WHERE...Whitefish Bay (U. S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point 
  Iroquois MI and St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. 
  Potagannissing Bay.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ348-349-151330-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0040.000000T0000Z-221215T2100Z/
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
1216 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 45 kts from the southeast and 
  highest waves around 17 feet.

* WHERE...Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder 
  Bay National Marine Sanctuary and Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ323-341-342-344>346-151330-
/O.CON.KAPX.SR.W.0005.000000T0000Z-221215T1500Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
1216 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2022

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 50 kts from the east and highest 
  waves around 11 feet.

* WHERE...Portions of Lake Michigan. 

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

906 
WHUS73 KAPX 150822
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
322 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2022

LSZ321-322-151500-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0040.000000T0000Z-221216T0000Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
322 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 45 kts from the east and highest 
  waves around 9 feet.

* WHERE...Whitefish Bay (U. S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point 
  Iroquois MI and St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. 
  Potagannissing Bay.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ348-349-151500-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0040.000000T0000Z-221215T2100Z/
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
322 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 45 kts from the southeast and 
  highest waves around 17 feet.

* WHERE...Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder 
  Bay National Marine Sanctuary and Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ323-341-342-344>346-151500-
/O.CON.KAPX.SR.W.0005.000000T0000Z-221215T1500Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
322 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2022

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 55 kts from the east and highest 
  waves around 11 feet.

* WHERE...Portions of Lake Michigan. 

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ345>347-151500-
/O.CON.KAPX.SR.W.0005.000000T0000Z-221215T1500Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
322 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2022

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 55 kts from the east and highest 
  waves around 17 feet.

* WHERE...Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge 
  including Mackinac Island, St Ignace to False Detour Channel 
  and 5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI 
  including Bois Blanc Island.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

122 
WHUS73 KAPX 151451
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
951 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2022

LHZ345>347-151900-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SR.W.0005.000000T0000Z-221215T1500Z/
/O.EXB.KAPX.GL.W.0040.000000T0000Z-221215T1900Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
951 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2022

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 40 kts from the southeast and 
  highest waves around 17 feet.

* WHERE...Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge 
  including Mackinac Island, St Ignace to False Detour Channel 
  and 5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI 
  including Bois Blanc Island.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ341-342-151900-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SR.W.0005.000000T0000Z-221215T1500Z/
/O.EXB.KAPX.GL.W.0040.000000T0000Z-221215T1900Z/
Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-
951 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2022

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 40 kts from the southeast and 
  highest waves around 9 feet.

* WHERE...Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge and 
  Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little 
  Traverse Bay.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ323-344>346-152300-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SR.W.0005.000000T0000Z-221215T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.SC.Y.0125.221215T1500Z-221216T0000Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
951 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kts from the south and highest 
  waves around 6 feet expected.

* WHERE...Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse 
  Light to Norwood MI, Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse 
  Light MI, Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI and Manistee 
  to Point Betsie MI.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ321-322-152300-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0040.000000T0000Z-221216T0000Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
951 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 40 kts from the southeast and 
  highest waves around 9 feet.

* WHERE...Whitefish Bay (U. S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point 
  Iroquois MI and St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. 
  Potagannissing Bay.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ348-349-152100-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0040.000000T0000Z-221215T2100Z/
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
951 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 40 kts from the southeast and 
  highest waves around 17 feet.

* WHERE...Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder 
  Bay National Marine Sanctuary and Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
324 PM EST Wed Dec 14 2022

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 318 PM EST Wed Dec 14 2022

...Gusty Winds with Mixed Precipitation Arriving...

High Impact Weather Potential...Fairly high.

The well advertised Plains storm system will begin to bring
impacts to northern Michigan tonight. The first impact will be
increasingly gusty winds tonight into Thursday. This will be
followed by mixed precipitation which will move from southwest to
northeast into northern Michigan later tonight into Thursday
morning. The details of Thursday can be found below in the short
term section. Looking at model soundings, an abundance of dry
mid/low level air will lead to evaporative cooling but with a warm
nose in evidence so snowflakes aloft will likely partially melt
which could lead to sleet formation. If the snowflakes totally
melt, surface temperatures around freezing could lead to freezing
rain. Farther north, melting is expected to be less so a mixture
of snow and sleet is likely. Ice accumulation is expected to be up
to a tenth of an inch which will be generally limited to M-32 on
south. Snow accumulations of up to an inch are possible through
early Thursday. All in all it looks like a mess and an arrival
late tonight into early Thursday is bad timing for morning commuters.
Frequent wind gusts of around 45 mph can be expected late tonight
into Thursday morning which in combination with the mixed
precipitation could even lead to some power outages.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Saturday)
Issued at 318 PM EST Wed Dec 14 2022

...Messy System Thursday Yields Some Lake Effect Friday...

High Impact Weather Potential...Brief window of elevated impacts
possible early Thursday morning into the afternoon from wintry
mix... Additional waves of synoptic snow possible Thursday night and
Friday night...lake effect limited Friday?

Pattern Synopsis: Meandering cutoff low pressure will continue to
slowly move through the upper Great Lakes on Thursday and Friday,
with synoptic moisture being drawn into the area by lingering theta-
e advection, aided by a shortwave surging up this baroclinic zone,
which will force out lingering layers of dry air by providing enough
lift and moisture to overwhelm any ongoing virga. This area of
concentrated lift and moisture will then surge through northern
lower MI through Thursday morning, but will be drying in the mid-
levels as it passes into the eastern Yoop. Following the passage of
this boundary, low level moisture associated with the cutoff low
will be stagnant across the area, with the potential for some lake
effect instability to develop late Thursday and into Friday, but the
extent of this will be heavily dependent on wind direction, as
southerly flow may fail to advect this instability inland.
Regardless, another vort looks to pass through late Thursday night,
which will be enough to resaturate the profile in places before once
again drying out by Friday morning. Another vort associated with the
slow moving low pressure looks to pass through later Friday, which
will lead to the resaturation of profiles as cooler air begins to
finally filter into the region on the backside of the low pressure
center.

Primary Forecast Concerns...concerns mounting over shorter temporal
and spatial extent of impacts from frontal band of precip
Thursday...additional waves of snow Thursday night and again Friday
night?

A complex forecast remains in play for Thursday, as concerns over
dry air and p-type continue to add to the final outcome of this
system, which looks to occur during the morning commute, and
coinciding with the start of the school day. We begin Thursday with
an area of precip along an occluded boundary, likely mixed as snow,
sleet, and perhaps some freezing rain pending the exact
area...roughly situated south of M-72. This will be a narrow and
quick-moving band, with warmer air aloft leading to mixing with
sleet and even some freezing rain in this area (particularly the
higher elevations across and south of the the M-55 corridor where
temperatures hold near or below freezing) with more snow possible
closer to M-72. As this band lifts north, there will be a weakening
of the moisture as it surges right into a dry air plume. This adds a
lot of uncertainties further north with accumulations...basically
that they could lower some north of M-32. P-type in this area should
favor mainly snow, but with moisture slowly decreasing aloft, p-type
may transition to a dreary drizzle given saturation not really
exceeding the warmer layer aloft (some models have saturation
stopping in the low levels at -4 to -6 degrees, particularly in the
eastern Yoop). This will add yet another layer of uncertainty to the
forecast... potentially resulting in a lighter snow mixed with
drizzle in the Tip of the Mitt and into the eastern Yoop, which,
again, pending surface temps, may increase impacts some.

Beyond the passage of the frontal boundary, in general, profiles
aloft look to be dry through the DGZ, with plentiful saturation
below the 850mb layer (which will have temps generally around -3 to -
7 degrees celsius). This will lead to a stoppage in most snow
concerns outside of some mangled flakes. The issue with this will be
the probability of drizzle occurring and where surface temps remain.
Owing to the heavily occluded nature of the parent low, cold air
will be slow to return, and sfc temps may even bump some in the wake
of the frontal band clearing the area, which may alleviate lingering
freezing drizzle concerns, with some impacts still possible in
colder and higher hills. Late Thursday night, colder air aloft will
slowly build into the region as an area of vorticity pivots around
the 500mb low. This can lead to a brief instance of snow showers
returning to the area Thursday night, but any resulting
accumulations look to be minimal on the order of an inch or less.

As we head into Friday, the 500mb low will be situated over the
central Yoop, with surface flow generally from the S or even SSE
over Lake Michigan, generally SSW over much of Lake Huron (but
backed SSE closer to the Straits). Owing to colder 850mb temps
(closer to -10 degrees Celsius as the day progresses), it is possible
for some lake effect to try and build east of I-75 in the Yoop, and
into western Mackinac County, and perhaps into coastal Manistee,
Benzie, and Leelanau Counties (if winds are veered slightly more SSW
by later in the afternoon). These areas will be where the most
appreciable snow accums will be possible Friday, but exact amounts
remain uncertain. Most other areas will likely be locked into a
grungy and drizzly/flurrying pattern, with the occasional snow
shower not entirely ruled out. Another shortwave is expected to
build into the area Friday evening/overnight, which, combined with
cooler temps aloft (saturation and temps -10 to -14 at 850mb), may
bring snow showers and perhaps the occasional steadier period of
snow back to the area, with some lake enhancement more likely owing
to more WSW flow. Accumulations from this particular window of snow
may be heavier owing to the more favorable dendritic growth
processes. The window for this will also be limited, which may keep
totals low.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 PM EST Wed Dec 14 2022

High Impact Weather Potential...continued lake effect into next week

The slow moving 500mb low will slowly move through the upper Great
Lakes through the weekend, and with a modest amount of synoptic
moisture trapped into the region (along with lingering vorticity),
it is expected for lake effect to linger into the weekend, and even
into the start of next week. By this time, appreciable colder air
will be present through the region after filtering in from the back
side of the low. In addition, backside flow will be more westerly
(give or take a few degrees N or S). The aforementioned
uncertainties in exact wind direction will make it difficult to pin
down the exact specifics of accumulations and exact locations
impacted by the snow. Going into next week, the lingering lake
effect instability is expected to continue into Monday and
potentially Tuesday, as colder air really tightens its grip on the
region, with high temperatures expected to be hovering generally in
the low to mid 20s. Lake effect may become more spatially limited
with time early next week owing to high pressure trying to build
back into the region, but we will have to see how this picture gets
painted over the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 233 PM EST Wed Dec 14 2022

Deteriorating conditions heading into tonight and Thursday as a
Plains storm system affects the region. Winds will continue to
increase and be very gusty with LLWS expected late tonight.
Mixed precipitation arrives late tonight with a mixture of snow,
sleet, freezing rain and rain expected. Cigs will slowly come
down, falling to IFR and possibly even LIFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 318 PM EST Wed Dec 14 2022

Widespread gale producing gusty east to southeast winds expected
across the big waters through Thursday morning. A few storm force
wind gusts are expected Thursday morning, especially on Lake
Michigan and the Straits region. Winds will gradually subside
Thursday afternoon and Thursday night.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Thursday for
     MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-097>099.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 3 PM EST Thursday for
     MIZ086>088-095-096.
LH...Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Thursday for
     LHZ345>349.
LM...Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Thursday for LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
LS...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Thursday for LSZ321-322.
&&

NEAR TERM...AJS
SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...AJS
MARINE...AJS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
329 PM EST Wed Dec 14 2022

MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-152030-
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-
Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-
Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
329 PM EST Wed Dec 14 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for Eastern Upper Michigan and
Northern Lower Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Mixed precipitation and very gusty winds will spread north across
lower Michigan tonight, resulting in travel impacts by Thursday
morning. Please see the winter weather advisory for additional
details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A wintry mix of precipitation will continue Thursday, resulting
in travel impacts, especially in the morning. Please see the
winter weather advisory for additional details.

Lake effect snow is expected across some of our traditional snow
belt locations Friday into the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-152030-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
329 PM EST Wed Dec 14 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for the northern Michigan
nearshore waters of Lake Huron, Lake Michigan and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Gale force wind gusts are expected across the northern Great Lakes
tonight into Thursday morning. A few storm force wind gusts are
likely, especially on Lake Michigan and near the Straits region
toward Thursday morning. Please see the latest gale and storm warnings
for additional details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Gale force wind gusts will continue into Thursday. A few storm
force wind gusts are likely on Lake Michigan and the Straits
region Thursday morning. Please see the latest gale and storm warnings
for additional details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.