Small Craft Advisory 89, NWS Gaylord, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
250 AM EDT Sat Sep 3 2022

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 248 AM EDT Sat Sep 3 2022

High Impact Weather Potential: Scattered non-severe thunderstorms
possible today, mainly northern lower MI.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Early this morning, low pressure is
centered across eastern Hudson Bay with a cold front draped across
far western Quebec southwestward to a line roughly from ANJ to GRB.
Weak/secondary low pressure development underway along this boundary
across southwest WI. This front is expected to bisect northern
northern MI early this morning before gradually sagging through the
day, clearing entirely by late afternoon. This boundary and
aforementioned secondary low pressure will be the focus for
additional isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm development
at times today, perhaps lingering into the evening hours.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Isolated to scattered shower/storm
chances today into this evening. Cooler temperatures. Patchy fog
tonight.

Scattered radar returns noted ahead of and along the cold front
across northern Lake Michigan and parts of eastern upper MI early
this morning. Additional showers and embedded convective activity
across parts of central WI. As this boundary sinks south this
morning, a rather tight north-south moisture/instability gradient
expected to set up across the forecast area today with the bulk of
favorable ingredients expected to be limited to northern lower.
This will ultimately make it tough to pinpoint exact placement and
coverage of convection today with initial chances this morning
focused generally north of a TVC-APN line, with greater chances
this afternoon southeast of a line from CAD to APN across
northeast lower. While thunderstorms are possible at virtually any
point today, the latter of these two areas will be better primed
for numerous storms given diurnally driven instability near its
peak and pre-frontal moisture pooling allowing for some locally
heavy downpours. Deep layer bulk shear limited to less than 25 kts
should preclude severe weather, but can't rule out a bit of
gustiness in any stronger storms.

While thunder chances largely diminish beyond sunset with a loss of
instability, lingering shower chances may be slow to end despite
slowly encroaching high pressure from the north and west. Latest hi-
res trends suggest another weak area of low pressure rides along the
front to our south forcing some low-level moisture back into parts
of the southern half of the forecast area...perhaps enough to kick
off additional scattered showers and/or drizzle and patchy fog
during the remainder of the overnight hours.

Wide range in temperatures today with 60s to near 70 across eastern
upper and lots of low-mid 70s across northern lower save for those
near Saginaw Bay where some pre-frontal 80s are possible. Cooler
tonight with lows spanning the 50s for most...touch cooler possible
over interior eastern upper and the Tip of the Mitt where mainly
clear skies are anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 248 AM EDT Sat Sep 3 2022

High Impact Weather Potential...Low.

The surface front to our south is expected to ever so slowly sink
farther to the south Sunday into Monday nudged along by surface high
pressure ridging in from the northeast. Partly to mostly cloudy
skies across southeast zones should give way to increasing afternoon
sunshine Sunday with mostly sunny skies elsewhere. Clear to partly
cloudy skies should cover it for Sunday night and Monday.
Temperatures will be seasonably cool Sunday with some warming
expected for your Labor Day. Highs Sunday in the upper 60s and low
70s then the low and mid 70s Monday. Lows Sunday night in the mid
40s to low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 248 AM EDT Sat Sep 3 2022

High Impact Weather Potential...Very low.

No big changes or surprises to extended guidance since yesterday.
Still expecting upper level ridging to dominate across the Great
Lakes next week while an upper level low hangs out to our south
across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This pattern supports
unseasonably warm daytime temperatures (but with comfortably cool
nights) and no rainfall through the long term across northern
Michigan.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1145 PM EDT Fri Sep 2 2022

A strong cold front will drop into Eastern Upper Michigan overnight
and then progress southeastward thru Northern Lower Michigan Saturday.
A relatively narrow line of scattered showers and isold thunderstorms
along and just ahead of this front will impact our TAF sites. Prevailing
conditions will remain VFR... but may briefly drop to MVFR/IFR within
heavier showers and storms. LLWS will continue to impact Eastern
Upper Michigan (CIU) overnight. Surface winds will remain from the
S/SW at 10 to 15 kts...and then begin to shift to the west late
tonight and eventually to the north at 15 to 25 kts on Saturday
behind the cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Sat Sep 3 2022

Any lingering southwest winds will continue to transition more north-
northwesterly behind a passing cold front this morning. Some low end
Small Craft Advisory gusts possible at times, mainly on Lake
Michigan today before winds veer northeasterly tonight. Northeast
winds are expected to continue Sunday into the start of the upcoming
work week, and while breezy at times, are expected to remain below
advisory criteria at this time.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for LMZ345-346.
LS...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...MJG
SHORT TERM...AJS
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MJG

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