Gale Watch 13, NWS Gaylord, MI

171 
WHUS73 KAPX 130219
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1019 PM EDT Tue Apr 12 2022

LMZ323-341-342-344-131200-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0042.220413T0400Z-220413T2000Z/
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.A.0013.220414T1200Z-220415T0000Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
1019 PM EDT Tue Apr 12 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...For the SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, Highest gusts up to 30 kt 
  from the southeast and highest waves around 5 feet expected. 
  For the GALE WATCH, Highest gusts up to 40 kt from the 
  southwest and highest waves around 9 feet possible.

* WHERE...Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse 
  Light to Norwood MI, Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse 
  Light MI, Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including 
  Little Traverse Bay and Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of 
  Mackinac Bridge.

* WHEN...For the SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, until 4 PM EDT Wednesday. 
  For the GALE WATCH, from Thursday morning through Thursday 
  evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous highest waves which 
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and highest
waves.

&&

$$

LMZ345-346-131200-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0042.220413T0400Z-220414T0000Z/
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.A.0013.220414T1200Z-220415T0000Z/
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
1019 PM EDT Tue Apr 12 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...For the SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, Highest gusts up to 30 kt 
  from the south and highest waves around 5 feet expected. For 
  the GALE WATCH, Highest gusts up to 40 kt from the southwest 
  and highest waves around 9 feet possible.

* WHERE...Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI and Manistee to 
  Point Betsie MI.

* WHEN...For the SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, until 8 PM EDT Wednesday. 
  For the GALE WATCH, from Thursday morning through Thursday 
  evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous highest waves which 
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and highest
waves.

&&

$$

LHZ345-131200-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0042.220413T0400Z-220413T2000Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-
1019 PM EDT Tue Apr 12 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt from the east and highest 
  waves around 5 feet expected.

* WHERE...Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge 
  including Mackinac Island.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ321-322-131200-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0042.220413T0600Z-220414T0000Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
1019 PM EDT Tue Apr 12 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 25 kt from the east expected.

* WHERE...St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing 
  Bay and Whitefish Bay (U. S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point 
  Iroquois MI.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ346>349-131200-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0042.220413T0400Z-220413T2000Z/
St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
1019 PM EDT Tue Apr 12 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt from the southeast and 
  highest waves around 6 feet expected.

* WHERE...5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI 
  including Bois Blanc Island, Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI, St 
  Ignace to False Detour Channel and Presque Isle Light to 
  Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

251 
WHUS73 KAPX 130839
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
439 AM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022

LMZ323-341-342-344-131645-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0042.000000T0000Z-220413T2000Z/
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.A.0013.220414T1200Z-220415T0000Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
439 AM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...For the SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, Highest gusts up to 30 kt 
  from the southeast and highest waves around 5 feet. For the 
  GALE WATCH, Highest gusts up to 40 kt from the southwest and 
  highest waves around 10 feet possible.

* WHERE...Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse 
  Light to Norwood MI, Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse 
  Light MI, Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including 
  Little Traverse Bay and Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of 
  Mackinac Bridge.

* WHEN...For the SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, until 4 PM EDT this 
  afternoon. For the GALE WATCH, from Thursday morning through 
  Thursday evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous highest waves which 
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and highest
waves.

&&

$$

LMZ345-346-131645-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0042.000000T0000Z-220414T0000Z/
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.A.0013.220414T1200Z-220415T0000Z/
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
439 AM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...For the SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, Highest gusts up to 30 kt 
  from the south and highest waves around 5 feet. For the GALE 
  WATCH, Highest gusts up to 40 kt from the southwest and 
  highest waves around 9 feet possible.

* WHERE...Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI and Manistee to 
  Point Betsie MI.

* WHEN...For the SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, until 8 PM EDT this 
  evening. For the GALE WATCH, from Thursday morning through 
  Thursday evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous highest waves which 
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and highest
waves.

&&

$$

LHZ345-131645-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0042.000000T0000Z-220413T2000Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-
439 AM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 25 kt from the east and highest 
  waves around 5 feet.

* WHERE...Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge 
  including Mackinac Island.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ321-322-131645-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0042.000000T0000Z-220414T0000Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
439 AM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 25 kt from the east and highest 
  waves around 3 feet.

* WHERE...St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing 
  Bay and Whitefish Bay (U. S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point 
  Iroquois MI.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ346>349-131645-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0042.000000T0000Z-220413T2000Z/
St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
439 AM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt from the southeast and 
  highest waves around 6 feet.

* WHERE...5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI 
  including Bois Blanc Island, Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI, St 
  Ignace to False Detour Channel and Presque Isle Light to 
  Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

437 
WHUS73 KAPX 131445
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1045 AM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022

LMZ323-341-342-344-132245-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0042.000000T0000Z-220413T2000Z/
/O.UPG.KAPX.GL.A.0013.220414T1200Z-220415T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.GL.W.0023.220414T1100Z-220415T0000Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
1045 AM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...For the GALE WARNING, Highest gusts up to 40 kt from 
  the southwest and highest waves around 10 feet expected. For 
  the SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, Highest gusts up to 25 kt from the 
  east and highest waves around 4 feet.

* WHERE...Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse 
  Light to Norwood MI, Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac 
  Bridge, Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including 
  Little Traverse Bay and Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse 
  Light MI.

* WHEN...For the GALE WARNING, from 7 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday. 
  For the SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, until 4 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ345-346-132245-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0042.000000T0000Z-220413T2000Z/
/O.UPG.KAPX.GL.A.0013.220414T1200Z-220415T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.GL.W.0023.220414T1100Z-220415T0000Z/
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
1045 AM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...For the GALE WARNING, Highest gusts up to 40 kt from 
  the southwest and highest waves around 10 feet expected. For 
  the SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, Highest gusts up to 25 kt from the 
  south and highest waves around 4 feet.

* WHERE...Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI and Manistee to 
  Point Betsie MI.

* WHEN...For the GALE WARNING, from 7 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday. 
  For the SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, until 4 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ345-132245-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0042.000000T0000Z-220413T2000Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.GL.W.0023.220414T1100Z-220415T0000Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-
1045 AM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...For the GALE WARNING, Highest gusts up to 40 kt from 
  the southwest and highest waves around 3 feet expected. For 
  the SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, highest waves around 5 feet.

* WHERE...Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge 
  including Mackinac Island.

* WHEN...For the GALE WARNING, from 7 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday. 
  For the SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, until 4 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ321-322-132245-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0042.000000T0000Z-220413T2000Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.GL.W.0023.220414T1500Z-220415T0000Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
1045 AM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...For the GALE WARNING, Highest gusts up to 35 kt from 
  the southwest and highest waves around 3 feet expected. For 
  the SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, Highest gusts up to 25 kt from the 
  east.

* WHERE...Whitefish Bay (U. S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point 
  Iroquois MI and St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. 
  Potagannissing Bay.

* WHEN...For the GALE WARNING, from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday. 
  For the SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, until 4 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ346-347-349-132245-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0042.000000T0000Z-220413T2000Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.GL.W.0023.220414T1100Z-220415T0000Z/
St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
1045 AM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...For the GALE WARNING, Highest gusts up to 40 kt from 
  the southwest and highest waves around 8 feet expected. For 
  the SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, Highest gusts up to 25 kt from the 
  east and highest waves around 6 feet.

* WHERE...St Ignace to False Detour Channel, 5NM East of 
  Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including Bois Blanc 
  Island and Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI.

* WHEN...For the GALE WARNING, from 7 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday. 
  For the SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, until 4 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ348-132000-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0042.000000T0000Z-220413T2000Z/
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-
1045 AM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 25 kt and waves around 6 feet.

* WHERE...Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder 
  Bay National Marine Sanctuary.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1124 AM EDT Tue Apr 12 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1119 AM EDT Tue Apr 12 2022

Lots of sunshine out there this morning, although some pockets of
high clouds currently rolling in across parts of northern
Michigan. Nice temperature surge this morning with many in the 50s
already this morning. Gradually increasing high clouds continue
this afternoon with shower/storm chances holding off until this
evening. Highs topping out in the 60s for many, although weak lake
breezes may prevent some of those immediate coastal locations from
staying mild for too long...already seen at PZQ weak with a weak
northeast wind off Lake Huron.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 403 AM EDT Tue Apr 12 2022

...Showers and storms tonight...

Forecast/Synopsis: Elongated west-east orientated troughing is
moving well to our north now, with the associated occluded surface
low from Monday continuing to weak as it also lifts north.
Broad/flat ridging over the eastern half of the CONUS, with weak
high pressure keeping us quiet for a good portion of the day. Next
precipitation chances look to hold off until Tuesday night with the
next system approaching the Great Lakes.

Details/concerns: Cloud trends, high temperatures, and timing of
rain moving in late overnight.

Slightly better moisture resides north of the bridge through the
morning hours, thus we could see clouds linger a bit longer up there
through the morning hours, but confidence in this is low. Per
forecast soundings and high-res guidance some mid and high level
clouds move back in across northern lower from the west around mid
day...the first hints of mid level WAA/isentropic lift across the
region ahead of the surface low still well upstream in Nebraska,
with its warm front extending east through Iowa into the Ohio
Valley.

Even with the filtered sunshine we should rapidly warm up through
the morning, and then into the upper 50's to low 60s south, and mid
50s north. The one exception would be right along the southern shore
of Eastern Upper where light generally southerly winds will advect
colder air off the cold lakes with some lingering ice cover.

Weak winds through much of the day will eventually ramp up a bit in
the evening/overnight with the tightening gradient. As WAA and
moisture advection finally overcome the dry air, showers and storms
are expected overnight. Some heavy rain is possible with abnormally
high PWAT's (+1-2 St. Dev) and plenty of dynamic lift to help out.
As of now the heaviest rain is expected to be along and north of M-
32 where the best 925-850mb moisture transport and convergence sets
up, as well as steeper mid-level lapse rates. Thunder is definitely
possible given the few hundred Joules of instability, but convection
should remain elevated with little potential of severe surface wind
gusts given the WAA regime...although some small hail is possible if
it doesn't fully melt within the surface-based warm layer.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 403 AM EDT Tue Apr 12 2022

High Impact Weather Potential: Strong winds, heavy rain potential,
and thunderstorms...

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Last 24-48 hours has seen sharp ridging cross the Great Lakes in
advance of a niblet of energy digging through the central Plains and
lifting northeastward through the flow overnight Sunday
night...resulting in some showers and thunderstorms across the area.
Height rises and subsidence behind this feature and its resultant
occluded surface system resulted in a beautiful afternoon across the
Northwoods. Surface low is actually still to our north, west of
James Bay, with an occluded front wrapping back to a triple point in
southern Ontario and a cold front which follows some semblance of a
baroclinic zone back southwestward into northern Texas, where
convection is firing along the front across Arkansas on return flow
off the Gulf. Same surface boundary then takes a turn back to the
northwest to follow the BCZ ahead of a slug of warm air aloft
advecting into southern Texas in advance of an anomalous trough
digging across the northwestern US...which is also associated with
some stronger (120+kt) upper level jet action both ahead of and
behind the base of said trough. Abundant moisture is present along
and south of the cold front stretching through the Ohio
Valley...again, thanks to return flow with high pressure holding on
off the coast of the Carolinas. Northern stream of the flow across
the Northern Plains features a couple cold fronts along a second,
cold baroclinic zone, associated with some troughing hanging out
just north of the international border in central Saskatchewan.

Meanwhile...upstream...sharp and somewhat anomalous ridging holds on
in the Gulf of Alaska behind the aforementioned northwestern US
troughing...and in advance of another closed low approaching the
Aleutians...with a niblet of energy riding over the top of the ridge
north of Alaska.

Looking forward...will look for anomalous troughing currently across
the northwestern US to progress eastward with time across the
northern half of the Plains, deepening with time Thursday over the
Upper Midwest as a niblet of energy dives into the Central Plains
and swings back northward around the base of said deepening trough
Wednesday night into Thursday, sort of like a big league slugger
swinging for the fences...potentially connecting with the pitch over
the Great Lakes...though there remains some uncertainty in the exact
details attm. Even so, this will result in a deep surface system
shifting eastward out of the lee of the Rockies tonight into
Wednesday...occluding over the Upper Midwest as the low aloft
deepens...with a warm front sliding northward through the state.
That big league niblet swinging up into Michigan Wednesday night
into Thursday will result in a cold front sliding through the state
later Wednesday or so (though again, exact details on timing,
position, and evolution of the surface low(s) remains somewhat
uncertain attm). Though the main system will have slowly spun its
way northward into Ontario like a curling stone...broad troughing
aloft will linger over the northern Great Lakes into the end of the
week.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Strong winds through the period...rain
and storm potential through the period...

Still a fair bit of uncertainty attm in the forecast with respect to
placement and timing of the niblet and its resultant surface details
Wednesday morning...but does appear that the warm front should be
driving through the region early with decently strong southerly flow
behind it for the bulk of the day. Will look for sustained winds to
run around 10kts or so, diminishing to some extent as the cold front
and secondary low at the triple point crosses through our region
(convection-related winds notwithstanding). That being said...could
be a bump up in winds right behind the front Wednesday evening/night
as it passes through, with winds shifting to southwest for the bulk
of the remainder of the period. May also have to watch for
isallobaric component of the wind to attempt to enhance winds as the
cold front passes through Wednesday evening/night. Another round of
breezy conditions is likely going into Thursday as the occluded low
across the Upper Midwest curls eastward, bringing the much tighter
pressure gradient associated with it into our region...resulting in
a breezier day Thursday than Wednesday, though by the time the low
gets to us, the gradient may be waning some. Will have to keep an
eye on it. Will also be looking for it to be rather gusty on
Thursday in particular, given cold advection and noting potential
for 850mb winds of at least 40kts, and 700mb winds of around 50kts
(both about 2-3 standard deviations above the mean)...and we may be
able to mix up that high at times...so will have to keep an eye on
Thursday, as some headlines may not be out of the realm of
possibilities.

Wednesday morning...will be looking for ongoing precip... There
should be good upper level forcing ahead of the shortwave, still
somewhat in the right entrance region of a WNW-ESE oriented jet max
to our north...some lingering fgen signals, particularly over the e.
UP...and some lower-level forcing along the largely E-W oriented
warm front itself cutting across the vicinity of the Tip of the Mitt
or so around 12z. As that next niblet approaches later Wednesday
afternoon/evening and the N-S oriented upper level jet max ahead of
it strengthens...we will end up in its right entrance region as
well...providing sufficient broad scale lift, in addition to some
good signals for fgen ahead of the cold front late Wednesday, which
itself should provide low-level lifting. Forcing signals appear to
largely wane going into Thursday and Thursday night.

The above signals for strong forcing occur while anomalous deep
moisture resides over the area in the warm sector of the system.
Pwats in excess of 1-1.25" Wednesday into Wednesday night would be
approaching climatological max values. This suggests a threat for
heavy rain potential, which could be further amplified (albeit in
localized form) by convective potential, which should come into play
with this system...though more intense convective potential attm
appears to remain to our south where it will be warmer and in a
better position related to the low/mid level jet. Looks like some
weaker stability moves through in the vicinity of/just behind the
warm front early Wednesday, noting steeper lapse rates above
700mb...which could also suggest potential for some elevated
convection, above an inversion centered around 850mb which seems to
wane with time through the day as we get into the warm sector.
Additionally...do see signals for increasing low-level instability
through the day in the warm sector, despite largely dreary (albeit
probably warm) conditions in the area. Depending on how deep into
the warm sector we get, and if we are able to break into the sun to
help warm the boundary layer, it could help further destabilize
things...though how much sun we would actually see is the big
question, given that guidance currently likes the idea of things
staying pretty dreary and cloudy overall ahead of the cold front.
Attm...best signals for instability/higher MUCAPEs appear to be
early in the day Wednesday along the warm front...so will have to
keep an eye on this as flow would be veering with height along the
warm front, suggestive of some directional shear and helicity as
well. Would be watching for some more widely scattered convection
through the afternoon, with some semblance of a more organized line
of storms zipping through with the cold front Wednesday
evening/night. May have to keep an eye on the E. UP Wednesday,
depending on where the warm front stalls out (more potential for
veering winds/low-level shear and helicity, particularly as the
triple point approaches), but we'll see, as it will be chilly north
of the warm front.

Otherwise...as temps fall behind the front Wednesday night into
Thursday...in combination with lingering moisture associated with
the closed upper low to our north and deep low to our west...will
have to watch out for some snowflakes to start mixing in and/or
falling as we go into Thursday. (Much drier air behind the system
Wednesday night into Thursday may even be able to clear some areas
out for a time...) That being said...does look like there could be a
pretty stout low-level dry layer that could evaporate anything that
tries to fall, which may not be much, given lack of good forcing
aloft, unless a niblet scooting through is able to kickstart
something. Might even start to get cold enough aloft by late
Thursday night or so to get some overlake instability again? We'll
see...as there are still some questions about the exact evolution of
the pattern beyond Wednesday that may lead to tweaks in the details
for the latter half of the week.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 403 AM EDT Tue Apr 12 2022

High Impact Weather Potential: Lingering impacts from midweek
system...

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

As mentioned at the end of the rather sporting short term
synopsis...will be expecting closed low aloft to still linger in our
general vicinity, though attm...there is some uncertainty in how far
south it holds on, which should have some impact on surface temps
and weather through the end of the workweek and into the weekend.
Even so, will be watching for breezier/gustier winds to hold on into
part of Friday. As upstream pattern amplifies in response to a
niblet digging into the northwestern US again...will look for a bit
of cold energy to slide through the Great Lakes late Friday into
Saturday. This should ultimately help boot this annoying system out
through the remainder of the weekend...though it does appear to
settle a cold high pressure in over the region for a time going into
Easter Sunday. Attm...there is a fair bit of uncertainty in how that
upstream niblet will evolve as it moves eastward with time...but
will have to keep an eye on it going forward.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 652 AM EDT Tue Apr 12 2022

High pressure will keep the region quiet and dry with relatively
light winds and VFR conditions through this afternoon. Then winds
become more consolidated out of the southeast and become gusty this
evening ahead of a warm front moving into the area. Showers and
storms move in late evening with conditions deteriorating overnight
into MVFR and IFR range.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 403 AM EDT Tue Apr 12 2022

Light and variable winds before daybreak will swing to south
and southeast through the morning hours. We gain a more
southeasterly component and become more gusty this evening and
tonight ahead of the next weather system set to bring another round
of showers and storms to the region for Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Winds remain strong and gusty Wednesday and especially into
Thursday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
     Thursday for LHZ345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 2 AM to 11 AM EDT Wednesday for
     LHZ346>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
     Thursday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT
     Wednesday for LSZ321.
&&

UPDATE...MJG
NEAR TERM...STJ
SHORT TERM...FEF
LONG TERM...FEF
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...STJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
719 AM EDT Tue Apr 12 2022

MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-131130-
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-
Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-
Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
719 AM EDT Tue Apr 12 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for Eastern Upper Michigan and
Northern Lower Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a chance for thunderstorms tonight with heavy downpours
possible. Severe storms are not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is a chance for thunderstorms Wednesday through Wednesday
night. Heavy downpours are possible. Some storms could become
strong to severe, with damaging wind gusts and small hail as the
primary hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-131130-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
719 AM EDT Tue Apr 12 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for the northern Michigan
nearshore waters of Lake Huron, Lake Michigan and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a chance for thunderstorms tonight with heavy downpours
possible. Severe storms are not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is a chance for thunderstorms Wednesday through Wednesday
night. Heavy downpours are possible. Some storms could become
strong to severe, with damaging wind gusts and small hail as the
primary hazards.

Gale force wind gusts are possible on Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.