Gale Warning 7, NWS Gaylord, MI

653 
WHUS73 KAPX 211453
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
953 AM EST Fri Jan 21 2022

LMZ323-341-342-344>346-212300-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0007.220122T0100Z-220122T1500Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
953 AM EST Fri Jan 21 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 40 kt from the southwest and 
  highest waves around 13 feet expected.

* WHERE...Portions of Lake Michigan. 

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ321-322-212300-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0009.220121T1800Z-220123T0600Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
953 AM EST Fri Jan 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt from the southwest and 
  highest waves around 9 feet expected.

* WHERE...St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing 
  Bay and Whitefish Bay (U. S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point 
  Iroquois MI.

* WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ345>349-212300-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0009.220121T2300Z-220123T0900Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
953 AM EST Fri Jan 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt from the southwest and 
  highest waves around 8 feet expected.

* WHERE...Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge 
  including Mackinac Island, 5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to 
  Presque Isle Light MI including Bois Blanc Island, Sturgeon Pt 
  to Alabaster MI, St Ignace to False Detour Channel and Presque 
  Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay National 
  Marine Sanctuary.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

467 
WHUS73 KAPX 212011
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
311 PM EST Fri Jan 21 2022

LMZ323-341-342-344>346-220415-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0007.220122T0100Z-220122T1500Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
311 PM EST Fri Jan 21 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 40 kt from the southwest and 
  highest waves around 13 feet expected.

* WHERE...Portions of Lake Michigan. 

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ321-322-220415-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-220123T0600Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
311 PM EST Fri Jan 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt from the southwest and 
  highest waves around 10 feet.

* WHERE...St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing 
  Bay and Whitefish Bay (U. S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point 
  Iroquois MI.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ345>349-220415-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0009.220121T2300Z-220123T0900Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
311 PM EST Fri Jan 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt from the southwest and 
  highest waves around 7 feet expected.

* WHERE...Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge 
  including Mackinac Island, 5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to 
  Presque Isle Light MI including Bois Blanc Island, Sturgeon Pt 
  to Alabaster MI, St Ignace to False Detour Channel and Presque 
  Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay National 
  Marine Sanctuary.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

915 
WHUS73 KAPX 220329
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1029 PM EST Fri Jan 21 2022

LMZ323-341-342-344>346-221200-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-220122T1500Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
1029 PM EST Fri Jan 21 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 40 kt from the southwest and 
  highest waves around 13 feet.

* WHERE...Portions of Lake Michigan. 

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ321-322-221200-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-220123T0600Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
1029 PM EST Fri Jan 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt from the southwest and highest
  waves around 10 feet.

* WHERE...St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing 
  Bay and Whitefish Bay (U. S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point 
  Iroquois MI.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ345>349-221200-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-220123T0900Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
1029 PM EST Fri Jan 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt from the southwest and 
  highest waves around 8 feet.

* WHERE...Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge 
  including Mackinac Island, 5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to 
  Presque Isle Light MI including Bois Blanc Island, Sturgeon Pt 
  to Alabaster MI, St Ignace to False Detour Channel and Presque 
  Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay National 
  Marine Sanctuary.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

468 
WHUS73 KAPX 220901
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
401 AM EST Sat Jan 22 2022

LMZ323-341-342-344>346-221500-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-220122T1500Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
401 AM EST Sat Jan 22 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 40 kt from the southwest and 
  highest waves around 13 feet.

* WHERE...Portions of Lake Michigan. 

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ321-322-221715-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-220123T0600Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
401 AM EST Sat Jan 22 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt from the west and highest 
  waves around 11 feet.

* WHERE...St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing 
  Bay and Whitefish Bay (U. S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point 
  Iroquois MI.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ345>349-221715-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-220123T0900Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
401 AM EST Sat Jan 22 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt from the west and highest 
  waves around 8 feet.

* WHERE...Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge 
  including Mackinac Island, 5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to 
  Presque Isle Light MI including Bois Blanc Island, Sturgeon Pt 
  to Alabaster MI, St Ignace to False Detour Channel and Presque 
  Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay National 
  Marine Sanctuary.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

164 
WHUS73 KAPX 221459
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
959 AM EST Sat Jan 22 2022

LMZ323-341-342-344>346-222300-
/O.CAN.KAPX.GL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-220122T1500Z/
/O.EXB.KAPX.SC.Y.0009.220122T1500Z-220123T0900Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
959 AM EST Sat Jan 22 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt from the west and highest 
  waves around 11 feet expected.

* WHERE...Portions of Lake Michigan. 

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ321-322-222300-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-220123T0900Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
959 AM EST Sat Jan 22 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt from the northwest and 
  highest waves around 11 feet.

* WHERE...St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing 
  Bay and Whitefish Bay (U. S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point 
  Iroquois MI.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ345>349-222300-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-220123T0900Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
959 AM EST Sat Jan 22 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt from the west and highest 
  waves around 7 feet.

* WHERE...Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge 
  including Mackinac Island, 5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to 
  Presque Isle Light MI including Bois Blanc Island, Sturgeon Pt 
  to Alabaster MI, St Ignace to False Detour Channel and Presque 
  Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay National 
  Marine Sanctuary.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
349 AM EST Fri Jan 21 2022

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 349 AM EST Fri Jan 21 2022

...Synoptic snow arrives very late tonight...

High Impact Weather Potential...Nearing moderate toward Sat
morning. Light lake effect snow along Lake MI coast today/this
evening. System snow moves in very late tonight.

High pressure centered over central/northern lower MI. Despite
this, lake-induced low clouds are pretty widespread, with some
breaks in ne lower MI. Some lake effect snow showers are hugging
the nw lower MI coastline, extending up into eastern upper MI.
Under the clouds, surface temps are mainly +10 to 15f. But where
it's cleared even a little bit...well, OSC is -10f.

As the high moves south and east, sw low-level flow will develop,
and steadily increase, thru the near-term period. This will
continue to support lake effect snow showers along the nw lower MI
coastal counties, extending up into eastern upper MI, thru this
evening. There should be something of a relative lull this
afternoon, as warm advection shallows out inversion heights, and
before synoptic-scale moisture starts to increase tonight. Have
daytime snow accums of up to an inch for Frankfort and the Dunes,
up to Beaver Isl and into central Mackinac Co.

Elsewhere, the primary question for today is cloud cover. With
some breaks already present in ne lower MI, expect that area to be
partly to mostly sunny today. Eastern upper MI, and the nw lower
MI coast, will stay on the cloudy side. Have trended the forecast
a bit cloudier in the in-between zone of n central lower.

For tonight, lake effect snow showers remain a possibility this
evening, especially at the end of the sw fetch over Beaver Isl
and eastern upper MI. Snow amounts will be less than an inch.
Overnight, a clipper shortwave digs into nw WI, will a sharp cold
front advancing just ahead of it. The increasing deep sw flow
finally finds a little moisture to tap, with the warm conveyor
belt developing into nw lower and eastern upper MI very late. Have
increased pops in the 09z-12z window (after 4 am) in western and
northern sections. Forcing/isentropic ascent is reasonably potent,
and once snow does get going, snowfall rates will be decent. This
will be aided by a deep DGZ (a near-isothermal layer extends from
3k to 12k ft in eastern upper MI), supporting relatively high
snow-liquid ratios. And 850mb temps of -13 to -15C will contribute
to lake enhancement near and downwind of Lake MI.

Despite the very late onset of snow, expect 1-1.5" of snow by 7
am for MBL- Empire, to Beaver Isl and Cross Village, and into a
good portion of eastern upper MI. This will be accompanied by
gusty sw winds and some blowing/drifting snow. Meanwhile, do not
expect snow to reach as far east as APN and W Branch by 7 am. For
overnight into Saturday, this does look like an advisory-level
event for some of the area (nw lower and eastern upper MI) due to
snow amounts, snowfall rates, and winds/blowing/drifting. Will not
be issuing this headline yet though, given timing of very late
2nd period into the 3rd period.

Max temps today near 20f. Lows tonight from mid-single digits
above zero in the se, to be mid teens near Lake MI.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Jan 21 2022

High Impact Weather Potential: Accumulating snowfall with
blowing/drifting Saturday...

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Last evening's surface analysis showed high pressure holding on
across the majority of the central/eastern CONUS as ridging aloft
shifts eastward across the Canadian Prairies...save for a smidgen of
surface troughing holding on across the Great Lakes (thanks to lake
aggregate effects, which are also keeping us warmer than points west
and north of the Lakes). Downstream...strong thermal gradient at the
surface and aloft along cold front lingering largely just off the
East Coast of the US is also (appropriately) associated with a
strengthening upper level jet max (140+kts) extending from southwest
to northeast along the cusp of upper level troughing departing our
region. Further upstream...next niblet of energy plowing across the
western Canadian Prairies is helping to shift aforementioned ridging
eastward...and in the meantime, is resulting in warm advection into
the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes...though the surface
boundary itself currently extends the length of the lee side of the
Rockies...with a cold front dropping down from the north in central
Alberta...associated with the northern sections of this niblet out
to our west. Plume of moisture is present ahead of this niblet...but
do note that it appears to be waning with time as it heads eastward
into the anomalously dry air mass across much of our region.

Going forward in time...ridging will move through the region
Friday...leading to a relatively quiet period of weather ahead of
the system for Friday night into Saturday. Will be looking for
impacts to linger into the start of the short term from Friday night
as the system progresses through the region...as the shortwave
niblet traverses the region through the day. A second niblet
Saturday night into Sunday will help reinforce the troughing and
cyclonic flow across the region...before it, too, departs...leaving
relatively zonal flow for a time Sunday night...before another
shortwave trough swings down out of northern Canada late Sunday
night...fixing its sights on the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes for the
start of the next workweek.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Gusty winds early Saturday...periods of
accumulating snow Saturday and Saturday night...and again Sunday
night...

Strong southwesterly flow should remain in place ahead of the
surface cold front Saturday morning...with the strongest winds
sliding eastward/southeastward with time through the day as the
front drops in, and winds becoming primarily westerly (with more of
a northerly component across eastern Upper late Saturday night as
that niblet drops in). Fropa appears to be toward the middle of the
day, more or less from west to east. Given that most of the strong
winds aloft and at the surface are ahead of the front...will
therefore look for the strongest winds earlier in the
day...diminishing with time behind the front...though this certainly
does not preclude stronger gusts along/behind the cold front, given
a pretty strong isallobaric gradient (gradient of lines of constant
pressure change) with fropa...suggesting gusts could be somewhat
enhanced at times. Gales are not completely out of the question for
Lake Huron zones in the early part of the day...given some stronger
winds aloft (925mb winds running around 30-40kts, 850mb winds around
40-50kts), though suspect we will not mix terribly deeply Saturday
morning across this area, given warm advection and also that the
lake is for the most part in the wrong place for better developing
low-level instability (as opposed to the Lake Michigan side of
things...where there is much better potential for mixing down some
of those stronger winds aloft). Even so...could see even our Lake
Huron zones mixing up towards 925mb and getting some gales at times.

Saturday morning...narrow plume of deeper moisture should be sliding
through the region in advance of the surface cold front...along with
some upper level forcing in advance of the shortwave. Top down
saturation over some southwest flow lake effect already in play
Friday night indicates snow should be ongoing Saturday morning
across northwest Lower and into eastern Upper...where strong
southwest flow up most of the length of Lake Michigan indicates
moisture transport should be more than sufficient to overcome ice
cover on northern Lake Michigan...and allow for lake enhancement of
synoptic snowfall. During this timeframe...continue to note a more
stable and/or isothermal layer in the DGZ above the ~4kft(ish) deep
unstable lake-related boundary layer...suggesting there is potential
for a bit of a fluff factor (as dendrites tend to lead to higher
SLRs) to additionally increase snowfall totals in some areas,
particularly in those favored southwest flow areas, where signals
point toward better upward motion in the DGZ. (It's a little more
hit-or-miss away from the lake initially.) Will ultimately look for
highest snowfall totals near the Lake Michigan coastline and across
eastern Upper, particularly in those southwest flow favored areas.

As the cold front, moisture, and better upper-level forcing press
through the area Saturday...will look for snowfall to spread
eastward with time Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon. Mid
level moisture should be relatively quick to move out behind the
front...indicating that widespread snowfall will not be terribly
long-lasting. Snow will, however, continue across west-flow favored
areas of northwest Lower and eastern Upper...where lake processes
will continue snowfall production, given cold advection aloft (925mb
temps ~-16C, 850mb temps dropping to ~-18C by 0z Sun...more than
sufficient for overlake instability, given lake surface temps in the
vicinity of 2-4C where ice cover has not yet begun to develop). Do
have some decent signals for low-level convergence across northwest
Lower with today's guidance, compared to last night's
guidance...suggesting NW Lower could remain a bit of a concern for
LES later Saturday into Saturday night, with inversion heights
potentially up around 7kft(ish). That being said...still looking at
some good signals for low-level convergence over Chippewa County
Saturday night with that niblet of energy dropping in...and
primarily northwest flow leading to good fetch over the still open
waters of Lake Superior...with some signals for better instability
eking in during the overnight up that way. Will have to keep an eye
on this going forward, though...as that surface trough may shift
winds enough to keep the bands from totally sticking over one
location for a long time...though total 1000-850mb mean wind
direction change between 0z Sun and 12z Sun currently appears to
between 20-30 degrees...which is on the high end, but may still be
sufficiently small enough to allow for higher totals (i.e., firehose
vs. evenly watering the garden).

Elsewhere Saturday night...a niblet of energy and resultant surface
low diving by to our south may lead to some top-down
saturation/seeder-feeder action...though guidance isn't entirely
sold on that idea. Do note that tonight's runs seem to be a little
further south with the moisture ahead of the niblet and along that
old BCZ than last night...so will not be surprised if this actually
turns out to miss us completely, if that trend continues.

Otherwise... NW flow lake effect should hold on into Sunday morning,
at the very least...if not longer...but will look for winds to shift
back to the west later Sunday...and eventually southwest...as some
brief ridging moves into the region ahead of the next system. This
should swing the lake bands around through the day...such that
totals will be more "water the garden" type...and ultimately more
nuisance-y than extremely impactful. Mid-level moisture should
already be on its way in by late Sunday night into early
Monday...allowing for top-down saturation (and perhaps more seeder-
feeder action) to commence ahead of the surface low and shortwave
aloft digging through the Northern Plains Sunday night. Flow ahead
of this system does not appear to be as strong as tonight's
attm...and it will be further south than tonight's...so while it
currently doesn't look as favorable, some southwest flow lake
enhancement will remain possible late Sunday night as things
saturate. Guidance is still struggling a bit with some of the
details on the front end of this system...so will have to keep an
eye on it in the coming days.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 349 AM EST Fri Jan 21 2022

High Impact Weather Potential: Accumulating snow potential
Monday...with more cold air midweek...

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

As mentioned at the end of the short term discussion...next
shortwave swings down from northern Canada into the region for
Monday, which should bring another decent shot at accumulating snow
to the region. As this system will track further south than
tonight's...will expect it to bring some colder weather along with
it for the first part of the week...returning us to a similar state
to that which we're currently in (with troughing overhead and a
potential system near the East Coast on the downstream side of the
trough.) Additional niblets of energy look to swing through the flow
at times...sort of the same old, same old that we've been dealing
with the last week or two (temperatures generally remaining colder
than normal, with periods of snow and/or lake effect snow)...though
details are more nebulous and uncertain the further in time you go
(not terribly out of the norm for long term forecasting, though).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1142 PM EST Thu Jan 20 2022

Still some lingering MVFR cigs along western taf locations early
this morning. Backing winds to southwest will punt the lake
clouds offshore, resulting in scattering out of skies through this
morning and VFR conditions. VFR conditions expected through this
evening, with lower cigs returning after this taf cycle ends.
Light winds become gusty out of the south and southwest later
today into this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 349 AM EST Fri Jan 21 2022

Sw winds will develop and increase today and tonight, as high
pressure moves off to the se. Gales are likely on Lake MI, and
possible on other waters. Gale warnings will be issued shortly on
Lake MI, and perhaps some other waters as well.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH from this evening through Saturday morning for LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...FEF
LONG TERM...FEF
AVIATION...MB
MARINE...JZ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
359 AM EST Fri Jan 21 2022

MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-221200-
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-
Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-
Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
359 AM EST Fri Jan 21 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for Eastern Upper Michigan and
Northern Lower Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Accumulating snow, briefly heavy, will move into eastern upper and
northwest lower Michigan after 4 am tonight. Gusty southwest winds
will result in some blowing and drifting snow.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Accumulating snow is expected across northern Michigan Saturday,
with lake effect snow likely Saturday night. Gusty winds during
this time frame may also result in blowing and drifting snow.

Another round of accumulating snow is likely Sunday night into
Monday.

Cold temperatures and ice development on area rivers and streams
may result in ice jams and localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report snowfall amounts to the
National Weather Service. Reports may be made one of three ways:

Online:    weather.gov/gaylord
Facebook: facebook.com/nwsgaylord
Twitter: twitter.com/nwsgaylord

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-221200-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
359 AM EST Fri Jan 21 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for the northern Michigan
nearshore waters of Lake Huron, Lake Michigan and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Gale force winds are likely on Lake Michigan tonight, and are
possible on other waters. See ongoing marine warnings and
advisories for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Gale force wind gusts may continue into Saturday, again mainly on
Lake Michigan. See ongoing marine warnings and advisories for
details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Contact us online via Facebook and Twitter anytime with weather
reports.

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

JZ