Gale Warning 41, NWS Gaylord, MI

164 
WHUS73 KAPX 241515
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1015 AM EST Sat Dec 24 2022

LMZ323-341-342-344>346-242315-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0041.000000T0000Z-221225T1000Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
1015 AM EST Sat Dec 24 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 45 kts from the northwest and 
  highest waves around 14 feet.

* WHERE...Portions of Lake Michigan. 

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ321-322-242315-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0041.000000T0000Z-221225T1000Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
1015 AM EST Sat Dec 24 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 45 kts from the northwest and 
  highest waves around 17 feet.

* WHERE...Whitefish Bay (U. S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point 
  Iroquois MI and St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. 
  Potagannissing Bay.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ345>349-242315-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0041.000000T0000Z-221225T1000Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
1015 AM EST Sat Dec 24 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 45 kts from the west and highest 
  waves around 14 feet.

* WHERE...Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge 
  including Mackinac Island, St Ignace to False Detour Channel, 
  5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including 
  Bois Blanc Island, Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI 
  Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary and Sturgeon 
  Pt to Alabaster MI.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

384 
WHUS73 KAPX 242107
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
407 PM EST Sat Dec 24 2022

LMZ323-341-342-344>346-250515-
/O.EXT.KAPX.GL.W.0041.000000T0000Z-221225T1200Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
407 PM EST Sat Dec 24 2022

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 45 kts from the northwest and 
  highest waves around 15 feet.

* WHERE...Portions of Lake Michigan. 

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ321-322-250515-
/O.EXT.KAPX.GL.W.0041.000000T0000Z-221225T1200Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
407 PM EST Sat Dec 24 2022

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 40 kts from the northwest and 
  highest waves around 18 feet.

* WHERE...Whitefish Bay (U. S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point 
  Iroquois MI and St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. 
  Potagannissing Bay.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ345>349-250515-
/O.EXT.KAPX.GL.W.0041.000000T0000Z-221225T1200Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
407 PM EST Sat Dec 24 2022

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 40 kts from the west and highest 
  waves around 12 feet.

* WHERE...Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge 
  including Mackinac Island, St Ignace to False Detour Channel, 
  5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including 
  Bois Blanc Island, Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI 
  Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary and Sturgeon 
  Pt to Alabaster MI.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

380 
WHUS73 KAPX 250228
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
928 PM EST Sat Dec 24 2022

LMZ323-341-342-344>346-251030-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0041.000000T0000Z-221225T1200Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
928 PM EST Sat Dec 24 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 40 kts from the northwest and 
  highest waves around 14 feet.

* WHERE...Portions of Lake Michigan. 

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ321-322-251030-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0041.000000T0000Z-221225T1200Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
928 PM EST Sat Dec 24 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 40 kts from the northwest and 
  highest waves around 18 feet.

* WHERE...Whitefish Bay (U. S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point 
  Iroquois MI and St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. 
  Potagannissing Bay.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ345>349-251030-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0041.000000T0000Z-221225T1200Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
928 PM EST Sat Dec 24 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 40 kts from the west and highest 
  waves around 12 feet.

* WHERE...Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge 
  including Mackinac Island, St Ignace to False Detour Channel, 
  5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including 
  Bois Blanc Island, Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI 
  Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary and Sturgeon 
  Pt to Alabaster MI.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

173 
WHUS73 KAPX 250844
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
344 AM EST Sun Dec 25 2022

LSZ321-322-251600-
/O.CAN.KAPX.GL.W.0041.000000T0000Z-221225T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.SC.Y.0129.221225T0844Z-221226T0000Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
344 AM EST Sun Dec 25 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kts from the northwest and 
  highest waves around 16 feet.

* WHERE...Whitefish Bay (U. S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point 
  Iroquois MI and St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. 
  Potagannissing Bay.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ323-341-342-344>346-251600-
/O.CAN.KAPX.GL.W.0041.000000T0000Z-221225T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.SC.Y.0129.221225T0844Z-221226T0000Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
344 AM EST Sun Dec 25 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kts from the northwest and 
  highest waves around 11 feet.

* WHERE...Portions of Lake Michigan. 

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ345-346-349-251600-
/O.CAN.KAPX.GL.W.0041.000000T0000Z-221225T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.SC.Y.0129.221225T0844Z-221226T0000Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
344 AM EST Sun Dec 25 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kts from the west and highest 
  waves around 7 feet.

* WHERE...Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge 
  including Mackinac Island, St Ignace to False Detour Channel 
  and Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ347-348-251600-
/O.EXT.KAPX.GL.W.0041.000000T0000Z-221225T1600Z/
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-
344 AM EST Sun Dec 25 2022

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 40 kts from the west and highest 
  waves around 11 feet.

* WHERE...5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI 
  including Bois Blanc Island and Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon 
  Pt MI Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

613 
WHUS73 KAPX 251505
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1005 AM EST Sun Dec 25 2022

LHZ347-348-252315-
/O.CAN.KAPX.GL.W.0041.000000T0000Z-221225T1600Z/
/O.EXB.KAPX.SC.Y.0129.000000T0000Z-221226T1200Z/
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-
1005 AM EST Sun Dec 25 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kts from the west and highest 
  waves around 9 feet.

* WHERE...5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI 
  including Bois Blanc Island and Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon 
  Pt MI Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ321-322-252315-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0129.000000T0000Z-221226T1200Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
1005 AM EST Sun Dec 25 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kts from the northwest and 
  highest waves around 13 feet.

* WHERE...Whitefish Bay (U. S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point 
  Iroquois MI and St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. 
  Potagannissing Bay.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ323-341-342-344>346-252315-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0129.000000T0000Z-221226T0600Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
1005 AM EST Sun Dec 25 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kts from the west and highest 
  waves around 8 feet.

* WHERE...Portions of Lake Michigan. 

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ345-346-349-252315-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0129.000000T0000Z-221226T1200Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
1005 AM EST Sun Dec 25 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kts from the west and highest 
  waves around 7 feet.

* WHERE...Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge 
  including Mackinac Island, St Ignace to False Detour Channel 
  and Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
304 AM EST Sat Dec 24 2022

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 301 AM EST Sat Dec 24 2022

High Impact Weather Potential: Lake enhanced snows and gusty winds
will continue to result in very hazardous travel conditions,
especially across our traditional lake effect regions.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Incredibly deep low pressure continues to slowly pinwheeling north
across southern Quebec early this morning (~965mb surface low).
Northern Michigan well within its broad circulation, with moisture
rich cyclonic flow across the Great Lakes. Focus for snows since
yesterday morning has really been confined to our traditional lake
belt locations, with seeder-feeder processes impinging on a
respectably deep over-water convective layer. Convective cloud depth
pegged right within the dendritic growth zone resulting in some
heavy snowfall rates...easily exceeding an inch per hour at times in
those heavier convective elements. Snowfall totals across parts of
northwest lower Michigan making a run a two feet already since the
storm started. Other, perhaps bigger story, is the persistent very
gusty winds...made so by shallow over-land convective layer making
full utilization of robust overhead pressure gradient. Continue to
see west/northwest winds topping 35 to 40 mph at times, causing
widespread blowing and drifting snow...especially on those north-
south roadways.

Eastern Lakes gyre will continue to slowly pull north with time
today and tonight, gradually filling in the process. Deep cyclonic
flow will remain overhead, supporting conditions that remain more
than favorable for continued lake moisture contribution right
through tonight. Combine that with maintenance of very gusty winds,
and unfortunately very hazardous travel conditions will continue,
especially across those favored lake effect areas.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges:

Focus remains on additional snow amounts and gusty winds through
tonight.

Details:

Persistence looks to be the key through tonight with continued lake
enhanced snows and gusty winds. Moisture profiles do begin to thin a
bit tonight as low pressure slowly loses it grip, suggesting lake
snows will become a bit less organized and intense with time. Until
then, over-water convective boundary layer depths just short of H7
level (and within the dendritic growth zone) and ample moisture
above this layer continues to support robust lake snows today...with
rates easily exceeding an inch per hour at times. Additional
snowfall today of several inches are likely in some of those snow
belt locations, with the highest totals centered in the Chippewa
County snow belt. Much lighter snows away from these favored areas.
Again, perhaps bigger story will be those gusty winds, with bufkit
momentum transfer properties and cross sectional analysis supporting
frequent gusts in excess of 30 mph, with even higher gusts (in
excess of 40), especially near Lake Michigan. This will continue to
support widespread blowing and drifting snow, only exacerbating the
already very hazardous driving conditions.

As mentioned snow shower organization and intensity will slowly
subside tonight as moisture begins to thin and convective depths
lower. They definitely won't stop however, and could easily see a
few more inches in the traditional lake effect areas. Winds do begin
to subside, but still think at least some blowing and drifting snow
will continue in those more open and exposed areas.

A chilly stretch of weather, with highs today in the upper teens and
lower 20s, and lows tonight in the lower and middle teens. Of
course, those winds will make it feel several degrees colder, with
wind chill readings running in the single digits above and below
zero.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 301 AM EST Sat Dec 24 2022

High Impact Weather Potential...Lake effect snow light to moderate
amounts.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast and Possible Impacts...Christmas day, The
NW winds begin to back to the WNW during the day and the 850 mb
temperatures start to warm, not to mention the synoptic moisture
moves out of the Upper Great Lakes (although the RAP13 leaves the
moisture in). So the snow begins to ramp down leaving minor to light
amounts (less than 3 inches). Christmas night, the winds continue to
ramp down and stay WNW or even West overnight. A new 500 mb
shortwave trough and associated sfc low come out of the N Plains,
which starts to spread minor snow amounts over portions of N Lower
and E Upper. Some of this is due to the 850 mb still around -14 or -
15c and the synoptic moisture returning to the cloud layer. The snow
look to remain into Monday morning. Monday, The models continue to
get into better agreement with this system. The WNW flow that the
models prior to the sfc low moving through veers more NW when the
trough moves through in the morning, then begins to back again to
the WNW So more light to moderate snow amounts again during the day.
Monday night the winds back to the West, the 850 mb temperatures
rise, and the cloud layer moisture begins to dry out. Minor to light
snow amounts as this much smaller system comes to an end.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 301 AM EST Sat Dec 24 2022

High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal.

Extended (Monday through Thursday)...Tuesday, The jet stream looks
to turn more progressive as we head into the middle of the week. all
of the shortwave troughs at 500 mb are about the same now on the all
of the models. This looks like a more northern riding Alberta
clipper system with the warm front just dangling into the UP by
Tuesday afternoon. The GFS has snow to start in the afternoon, while
the ECMWF isn't until the evening. The CMC is much farther south,
pretty much with light snow through most of Lower Michigan, as well
as the UP. The NBM numbers favor the GFS idea, which seem good.
Wednesday, 500 mb ridging on both the GFS and ECMWF drying things
out for the day. Wednesday night, however, a feature moves through
the region, and kicks off precipitation from the south. Looked
through the soundings tonight, and it looks like there could be a
mix of rain and snow to start. The GFS and the ECMWF switch it to
rain by 12z/Thu, although it could be just drizzle. the freezing
idea is still there, in E Upper early Thursday morning. Thursday,
any freezing drizzle idea is gone by the afternoon with the models
only showing rain. Both of the models has a light rain that rides
over the region through the night. 850 mb temperatures are up to +5c
by 12z/Fri, so we are going to start losing the snow we gained this
week and the early part of next week. Friday, the GFS ends the rain
by the afternoon and continues dryness into Saturday morning. The
ECMWF rains in the morning, takes a break in the afternoon, and then
start rain and warms considerably with the 850 mb temperatures
warming to near +10c, as the sfc low moves northeast through the
Upper Mississippi Valley. We are going to seriously lose a big chunk
of our snow if the ECMWF is right.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1052 PM EST Fri Dec 23 2022

Little change tonight into Saturday as locally heavy lake
enhanced snow continues along with winds gusting as high as 40
knots to create blizzard/near blizzard conditions at times.
Primarily IFR/LIFR conditions at northwest lower MI terminals,
along with CIU. Occasionally better/MVFR conditions at APN. Any
significant improvement to conditions will likely hold off until toward
the end of the TAF period or beyond.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 301 AM EST Sat Dec 24 2022

Gusty west to northwest winds will continue through tonight as deep
low pressure slowly pulls away from the region. While may yet see an
isolated storm force wind gust today, especially on northern Lake
Huron, expect widespread gales across the waters. Winds will begin
to slowly subside later tonight, but especially Sunday into Sunday
night.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Blizzard Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ016>018-
     020>023-025>028-031-032-086>088-095>099.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ024-029-
     033-034.
     Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM EST early this morning for
     MIZ030-035-036-041-042.
LH...Gale Warning until 5 AM EST Sunday for LHZ345>349.
LM...Gale Warning until 5 AM EST Sunday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
LS...Gale Warning until 5 AM EST Sunday for LSZ321-322.
&&

NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...MJG
MARINE...MSB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
928 PM EST Fri Dec 23 2022

MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-250230-
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-
Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-
Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
928 PM EST Fri Dec 23 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for Eastern Upper Michigan and
Northern Lower Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Gusty winds and significant accumulating snow will result in
blizzard or near blizzard conditions at times through tonight.
Please see the latest Blizzard Warnings and Winter Storm Warnings
for additional details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Gusty winds and significant accumulating snow will result in
blizzard or near blizzard conditions at times through Saturday.
Please see the latest Blizzard Warnings and Winter Storm Warnings
for additional details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report snowfall amounts to the
National Weather Service. Reports may be made one of three ways:

Online:   weather.gov/gaylord
Facebook: facebook.com/nwsgaylord
Twitter:  twitter.com/nwsgaylord

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-250230-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
928 PM EST Fri Dec 23 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for the northern Michigan
nearshore waters of Lake Huron, Lake Michigan and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Storm force winds are expected through tonight. Please see the
latest storm warnings for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Storm force winds are expected to continue through Saturday
morning. Please see the latest storm warnings for details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1006 PM EST FRI DEC 23 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1003 PM     HEAVY SNOW       3 N SPARR               45.10N 84.59W
12/23/2022  M26.0 INCH       OTSEGO             MI   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL THROUGH 9:30PM NEAR TREETOPS
            NORTH.

&&

HAD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1020 PM EST FRI DEC 23 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1018 PM     SNOW             STERLING                44.03N 84.02W
12/23/2022  M4.5 INCH        ARENAC             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL ENDING AT 1000 PM.

&&

JSL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1049 PM EST FRI DEC 23 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SW WURTSMITH AIRFIELD 44.45N 83.40W
12/23/2022  M51 MPH          IOSCO              MI   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KOSC OSCODA - WURTSMITH AFB.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1050 PM EST FRI DEC 23 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0922 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 E PARKDALE            44.27N 86.25W
12/23/2022  M48 MPH          MANISTEE           MI   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KMBL MANISTEE - BLACKER
            AIRPORT.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1051 PM EST FRI DEC 23 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0839 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 WNW PELLSTON          45.57N 84.80W
12/23/2022  M46 MPH          EMMET              MI   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KPLN PELLSTON - RGNL AIRPORT OF
            EMMET COUNTY.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
147 AM EST SAT DEC 24 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     HEAVY SNOW       6 ESE ALBA              44.94N 84.87W
12/23/2022  E24.0 INCH       ANTRIM             MI   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL SNOW ENDING AT 9 PM. 5 INCHES
            FELL BETWEEN 5PM AND 9PM.

&&

JSL