Gale Warning 33, NWS Gaylord, MI

383 
WHUS73 KAPX 180816
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
416 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022

LHZ347-348-181630-
/O.EXP.KAPX.SR.W.0002.000000T0000Z-221018T0800Z/
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0033.000000T0000Z-221019T0000Z/
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-
416 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...STORM WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 40 kts from the north and highest 
  waves around 11 feet.

* WHERE...5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI 
  including Bois Blanc Island and Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon 
  Pt MI Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ322-181630-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-221019T0000Z/
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
416 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 40 kts from the north and highest 
  waves around 7 feet.

* WHERE...St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing 
  Bay.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ345-346-349-181630-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-221019T0000Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
416 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 45 kts from the north and highest 
  waves around 6 feet.

* WHERE...Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge 
  including Mackinac Island, St Ignace to False Detour Channel 
  and Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ323-341-342-344>346-181630-
/O.CON.KAPX.SR.W.0002.000000T0000Z-221019T0000Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
416 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 50 kts from the north and highest 
  waves around 18 feet.

* WHERE...Portions of Lake Michigan. 

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ321-181630-
/O.CON.KAPX.SR.W.0002.000000T0000Z-221019T0000Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
416 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 50 kts from the north and highest 
  waves around 15 feet.

* WHERE...Whitefish Bay (U. S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point 
  Iroquois MI.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

JZ

192 
WHUS73 KAPX 181419
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1019 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022

LSZ322-182230-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-221019T0000Z/
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
1019 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 35 kts from the north and highest 
  waves around 6 feet.

* WHERE...St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing 
  Bay.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ345-346-349-182230-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-221019T0000Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
1019 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 35 kts from the north and highest 
  waves around 6 feet.

* WHERE...Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge 
  including Mackinac Island, St Ignace to False Detour Channel 
  and Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ347-348-182230-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0033.000000T0000Z-221019T0000Z/
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-
1019 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 35 kts from the north and highest 
  waves around 9 feet.

* WHERE...5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI 
  including Bois Blanc Island and Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon 
  Pt MI Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ323-341-342-344>346-182230-
/O.CON.KAPX.SR.W.0002.000000T0000Z-221019T0000Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
1019 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 50 kts from the north and highest 
  waves around 18 feet.

* WHERE...Portions of Lake Michigan. 

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ321-182230-
/O.CON.KAPX.SR.W.0002.000000T0000Z-221019T0000Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
1019 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 50 kts from the north and highest 
  waves around 14 feet.

* WHERE...Whitefish Bay (U. S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point 
  Iroquois MI.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

355 
WHUS73 KAPX 181936
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
336 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022

LSZ322-190000-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-221019T0000Z/
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
336 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 35 kts from the north and highest 
  waves around 5 feet.

* WHERE...St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing 
  Bay.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ345-346-349-190000-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-221019T0000Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
336 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 35 kts from the north and highest 
  waves around 5 feet.

* WHERE...Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge 
  including Mackinac Island, St Ignace to False Detour Channel 
  and Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ347-348-190000-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0033.000000T0000Z-221019T0000Z/
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-
336 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 35 kts from the north and highest 
  waves around 6 feet.

* WHERE...5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI 
  including Bois Blanc Island and Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon 
  Pt MI Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ323-341-342-344>346-190000-
/O.CON.KAPX.SR.W.0002.000000T0000Z-221019T0000Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
336 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 50 kts from the north and highest 
  waves around 17 feet.

* WHERE...Portions of Lake Michigan. 

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ321-190000-
/O.CON.KAPX.SR.W.0002.000000T0000Z-221019T0000Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
336 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 50 kts from the north and highest 
  waves around 11 feet.

* WHERE...Whitefish Bay (U. S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point 
  Iroquois MI.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

496 
WHUS73 KAPX 182359
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
759 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022

LMZ323-341-342-344>346-190800-
/O.EXP.KAPX.SR.W.0002.000000T0000Z-221019T0000Z/
/O.EXB.KAPX.GL.W.0032.221019T0000Z-221019T1200Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
759 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
...STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 45 kts from the north and highest 
  waves around 16 feet expected.

* WHERE...Portions of Lake Michigan. 

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves which
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ321-190800-
/O.EXP.KAPX.SR.W.0002.000000T0000Z-221019T0000Z/
/O.EXB.KAPX.GL.W.0032.221019T0000Z-221019T1200Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
759 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
...STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 40 kts from the north and highest 
  waves around 11 feet expected.

* WHERE...Whitefish Bay (U. S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point 
  Iroquois MI.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves which
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ345-346-349-190800-
/O.EXP.KAPX.GL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-221019T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.SC.Y.0104.221019T0000Z-221020T1200Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
759 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY...
...GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kts from the northwest and 
  highest waves around 6 feet expected.

* WHERE...Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge 
  including Mackinac Island, St Ignace to False Detour Channel 
  and Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ347-348-190800-
/O.EXP.KAPX.GL.W.0033.000000T0000Z-221019T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.SC.Y.0104.221019T0000Z-221020T1200Z/
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-
759 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY...
...GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kts from the northwest and 
  highest waves around 8 feet expected.

* WHERE...5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI 
  including Bois Blanc Island and Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon 
  Pt MI Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ322-190800-
/O.EXP.KAPX.GL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-221019T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.SC.Y.0104.221019T0000Z-221019T1600Z/
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
759 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY...
...GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kts from the north and highest 
  waves around 5 feet expected.

* WHERE...St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing 
  Bay.

* WHEN...Until noon EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
759 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 341 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...Windy with early season accumulating snow thru tonight...

High Impact Weather Potential...Wind gusts to 40-50 mph combined
with some accumulating snow will cause hazardous travel along with
some tree damage and possible power outages thru tonight.

Low pressure continues to rapidly deepen over Lake Huron this
afternoon as an also rapidly deepening closed upper low pivots east
out of the Thumb area and into far SE Ontario. Back edge of a
widespread area of rain showers continues to very slowly push
eastward thru NE Lower Michigan...and is still expected to exit into
Lake Huron this evening. Northerly flow lake effect rain showers
have become fully established and are streaming into much of the
rest of our CWA. Deep and further sharpening cyclonic flow continues
to play a role in precip production...and will remain an important
player thru tonight. Another wave will rotate out of Canada and into
Northern Michigan late tonight...providing another shot of
widespread precip for our entire CWA. Certainly lake enhancement
will maintain highest QPF within our northerly flow lake enhancement
areas (mainly west of US-131)...but everyone will see at least some
precip thru tonight. Still cannot rule out a rumble of thunder
across portions of NW Lower Michigan into this evening with little
in the way of an inversion height present.

Big question is precip type as the night evolves and weak CAA takes
place...especially behind the short wave late tonight. Slightly
cooler low levels should lead to more snow mixing in with the rain
and/or switching over to all snow at times later tonight. This is
especially true for our higher terrain areas and within any cells
that become highly convective...thus causing further cooling of the
lowest levels. Some inland areas across Northern Lower Michigan will
see 1 to 2 inches of wet snow accumulation overnight...with another
inch possible Tuesday morning. We will therefore issue a Winter Wx
Advisory for several inland/higher terrain counties across Northern
Lower Michigan for overnight into Tuesday morning...with the
expectation of 1 to 3 inches of heavy wet accumulation along with
strong northerly winds. All of the above will cause hazardous travel
as well as some tree damage and possible power outages.

Regarding our wind event...northerly winds will continue to
gradually strengthen on the back side of what is slowly becoming a
vertically stacked low. Expect to reach solid Wind Advisory criteria
across Western Chippewa county...all NW Lower Michigan lakeshore
counties and across Beaver Island this afternoon thru Tuesday
evening...with wind gusts to 40 to 50 mph expected for these areas.
Will also maintain a Lakeshore Flood Advisory for Grand Traverse
county as waves pile up under the direction of straight northerly
flow down the length of Grand Traverse Bay.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Thursday)
Issued at 341 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022

High Impact Weather Potential: Accumulating snow with gusty winds
tonight and Tuesday. Strong winds are expected to last through
Tuesday...expected to produce sporadic power outages.

An area of low pressure will continue to meander over the Great
Lakes region the next few days. With amplified ridging over western
North America, strong north-northwesterly winds and a couple passing
troughs will continue to filter in cold temperatures and produce
lake enhanced rain/snow. This colder air will produce accumulating
snow for the favored NNW-NW flow areas. With continued guidance
suggesting accumulated snow accumulations over Wexford, Missaukee,
Kalkaska and Crawford Counties with 1-2 additional inches on top of
whatever fell during the overnight hours in the forecast at this
time Tuesday morning. The majority of ensemble members are also
clustered around these amounts. There will once again be chances of
additional accumulations during Tuesday night. Some models hint at
around another 1-3" of snow total by Wednesday morning...with the
highest amounts anywhere from Kalkaska to Otsego Counties again.
This will be after much, if not all, of the snow from the previous
day melts as temperatures reach into the upper 30s to near 40
degrees throughout the day Tuesday. Wednesday will continue to see
lake effect/enhanced precipitation although it will be more
transient as winds back throughout the day to westerly by the
evening hours. Wouldn't be surprised if lake effect clouds and some
showers remain throughout the day Thursday as 850mb temperatures
around -4C, cyclonic west-northwesterly flow, and lingering moisture
all remain overhead.

Winds will continue out of the north-northwesterly Tuesday and be
strong, with gusts of near 50-55 mph possible as the pressure
gradient tightens between the two aforementioned systems even
further. The strongest winds will be along the shorelines of Lake
Michigan and Whitefish Bay. Power outages are expected. Winds begin
to diminish Wednesday and back to more northwesterly as the system
finally begins to trek slowly to the north. Winds Wednesday will
still be breezy, with gusts of 25-30 mph possible and decrease in
intensity further Thursday.

Highs will be in the upper 30s to near 40, with the coastal areas
possibly seeing around 45 degrees, while overnight lows drop to near
30 to the mid 30s. Thursday will warm slightly...reaching into the
mid to upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 341 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022

High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal at this time.

High pressure and drier air finally build into the Great Lakes area
late Thursday night and provides much quieter and warmer
temperatures through the end of the work week and into the weekend.
Temperatures start out at the mid to upper 40s Thursday and warm a
bit each day until 60s are realized by Saturday and possibly even
warmer Sunday and into the next work week. High pressure will
provide light winds along with the warmer temperatures and
precipitation-free weather. The next chance of precipitation will be
late Sunday into Monday as another developing system over the
northern Great Plains begins to approach the Great Lakes region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 740 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022

Mainly MVFR cigs are expected by late this evening with some
temporary drops to IFR possible during the morning hours associated
with the potential for rain showers to mix with snow at some TAF
sites. The most likely sites to experience a switch over to snow
would be CIU, PLN, and APN, but relatively low confidence in this
occurring precludes explicit mention in the 00Z TAF. Mainly NNW flow
will bring the most persistent rain showers to TVC and MBL with
other TAF sites more likely to see breaks in showers throughout the
day. Strong winds around 20 kts with gusts of 35-45 kts will be
possible through the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 341 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022

Winds and waves will continue to strengthen to storm and gale
warning criteria tonight and will continue thru Tuesday evening as
low pressure rapidly deepens and then stalls over Lake Huron.
Widespread rain showers...possibly mixed with snow at times will
remain in the forecast thru the middle of next week thanks to this
persistent upper level troughing entrenched across the Great Lakes.
Isold thunderstorms are also possible thru this evening for our Lake
Michigan nearshore areas.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for MIZ016-020-021-025-
     026-031-086-098-099.
     Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon EDT
     Tuesday for MIZ022-023-027-028-032-033.
     Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for MIZ026.
LH...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for LHZ345>349.
LM...Storm Warning from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
LS...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for LSZ322.
     Storm Warning until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for LSZ321.
&&

NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...TJL
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...DJC
MARINE...MLR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
407 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022

MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-182015-
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-
Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-
Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
407 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for Eastern Upper Michigan and
Northern Lower Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

There is a slight chance for thunderstorms into this evening
across portions of Northwest Lower Michigan. No severe weather is
expected.

Very gusty north to northwest winds will impact the shoreline
counties Lake Michigan and Lake Superior tonight. Please see the
latest Wind Advisories for additional details.

Wet snow accumulation is possible later tonight across the inland
higher terrain areas of Northern Lower Michigan. Wet snow combined
with windy conditions will lead to hazardous travel along with
some tree damage and possible power outages. Please see the latest
Winter Weather Advisories for further details.

Lakeshore flooding is possible for northern portions of Grand
Traverse county tonight. Please see the latest Lakeshore Flood
Advisory for further details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Very gusty north to northwest winds will continue to impact the
shorelines areas of Lake Michigan and Lake Superior through
Tuesday evening. Please see the latest Wind Advisories for
additional details.

Wet snow accumulation will remain possible into Tuesday morning
across the inland higher terrain areas of Northern Lower Michigan.
Wet snow combined with windy conditions will lead to hazardous
travel along with some tree damage and possible power outages.
Please see the latest Winter Weather Advisories for further
details.

Lakeshore flooding is possible for northern portions of Grand
Traverse county through Tuesday evening. Please see the latest
Lakeshore Flood Advisory for further details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather,
rainfall amounts, and snowfall amounts to the National Weather
Service. Reports may be made one of three ways:

Online:   weather.gov/gaylord
Facebook: facebook.com/nwsgaylord
Twitter:  twitter.com/nwsgaylord

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-182015-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
407 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for the northern Michigan
nearshore waters of Lake Huron, Lake Michigan and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

There is a slight chance for thunderstorms into this evening
across portions of Northern Lake Michigan. No severe weather is
expected.

Storm and gale force wind gusts are expected through tonight on our
nearshore waters. Please see the latest Storm and Gale Warnings
for additional details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Storm and gale force wind gusts will continue through Tuesday on
our nearshore waters. Please see the latest Storm and Gale
Warnings for additional details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
306 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 31 E PRESQUE ISLE       45.35N 82.84W
10/17/2022  M40 MPH          LHZ362             MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 45003 30 E PRESQUE ISLE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
353 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 31 E PRESQUE ISLE       45.35N 82.84W
10/17/2022  M43 MPH          LHZ362             MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 45003 30 E PRESQUE ISLE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
400 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 WNW MANISTEE          44.25N 86.34W
10/17/2022  M40 MPH          MANISTEE           MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION MEEM4 MANISTEE.

&&