Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
635 PM CDT Wed May 4 2022

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions at the Amarillo and Dalhart TAF sites will become
MVFR to IFR between 02Z and 13Z Thursday and will then become VFR
again after 12Z to 15Z Thursday. VLIFR to IFR conditions at the
Guymon TAF site will continue through about 12Z to 15Z Thursday
and then become VFR after 12Z to 15Z Thursday. East to southeast
winds at the Amarillo TAF site 10 to 20 knots will become north to
northwest 10 to 20 knots with gusts near 30 knots after 04Z to 06Z
Thursday. East to northeast winds 10 to 20 knots at the Guymon
TAF site will become north to northwest around 15 to 25 knots with
gusts near 30 knots after 06Z to 08Z Thursday. North to northwest
winds at the Dalhart TAF site 15 to 25 knots will continue through
00Z Friday.

Schneider

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 200 PM CDT Wed May 4 2022/

SHORT TERM...
Thunderstorms are expected to continue east along a dryline early
this evening.  Large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two will
also be possible from these storms.  More thunderstorms may develop
in the cooler air to the northeast of the surface low across the
Oklahoma Panhandle and northern Texas Panhandle this afternoon and
evening.  These storms will likely pose a hail threat.  A cold front
is expected to sweep through the Panhandles early this evening as an
upper upper low moves from south-central colorado to southeast
Colorado.  This cold front should sweep the low level moisture and
any showers and storms off to the southeast this evening.

Some showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday across
the northeast half of the CWA on the west side of the upper level
low as it moves across southwest and south-central Kansas.

Highs on Thursday are expected to be in the mid 60's in the eastern
Oklahoma Panhandle to the upper 70's in the southwest Texas
Panhandle.

LONG TERM...

Precipitation potential ends Friday in the wake of the upper wave.
Buildings heights and large scale descent will lead to an uptick in
temperatures with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Relatively
light winds should preclude notable fire danger aside from the far
western Panhandles.

Saturday, apex of the shortwave ridge builds over the CWA. As this
occurs, belt of strong flow to our north over the Rockies will lead
to lee cyclogenesis in E CO, driving southwesterly winds at the
surface in our forecast area. This will lead to the hottest day of
the year thus far, with triple digit highs possible and records for
May 7th, which are generally in the mid to upper 90s, in jeopardy.
Breezy downslope winds also favor critical fire weather conditions,
as discussed below.

Sunday, while temperatures will likely take a step downward as the
aforementioned ridge shifts eastward, only a small trend downward is
favored given continued lee troughing in E CO and downslope winds in
the Panhandles. Dry conditions would once again favor critical fire
danger.

Monday into Tuesday, flow aloft transitions to southwesterly. High
pressure building over the SE CONUS may allow for return flow from
the Gulf of Mexico. While am not overly enthused given the several
days of antecedent dry conditions, have retained low end mentions of
precip for Tuesday.

Ferguson

FIRE WEATHER...Saturday through Tuesday...

Saturday and Sunday, increasing flow aloft, particularly over the
Rockies to our north, will drive lee pressure falls in E CO. As a
shortwave ridge brings building heights aloft to the area,
particularly on Saturday, very dry conditions are favored as
temperatures rise and, given the downslope orientation of the
surface winds, available moisture decreases. At this time, neither
day favors the development of a notable jet aloft, so wind speeds
will be largely gradient drive. Thus, solidly critical conditions
are expected but, at this time, fire outbreak conditions are not
favored. Will keep an eye on this period, however.

Monday and Tuesday, flow aloft becomes southwesterly. While some
return flow may advect moisture northward by Tuesday, this pattern
should keep things warm and dry with concomitant critical
conditions.

Ferguson

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

11

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
634 PM CDT Wed May 4 2022

TXZ014-015-050000-
Gray TX-Wheeler TX-
634 PM CDT Wed May 4 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Wheeler and
southeastern Gray Counties through 700 PM CDT...

At 634 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles west of Kellerville, or 21 miles southeast of Pampa, moving
east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Briscoe, Wheeler, New Mobeetie, Kellerville and Mobeetie.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for the Panhandle
of Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3537 10012 3526 10067 3543 10074 3562 10024
      3562 10022
TIME...MOT...LOC 2334Z 251DEG 35KT 3537 10065

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Ferguson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
728 PM CDT Wed May 4 2022

TXZ010-015-050100-
Hemphill TX-Wheeler TX-
728 PM CDT Wed May 4 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Wheeler and
southeastern Hemphill Counties through 800 PM CDT...

At 728 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles east of Wheeler, or 15 miles northeast of Shamrock, moving east
at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Briscoe, Wheeler, Allison and Twitty.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for the Panhandle
of Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3527 10033 3571 10028 3577 10000 3525 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0028Z 272DEG 25KT 3542 10012

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Ferguson

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