Severe Thunderstorm Warning 199, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
200 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

An upper level short wave trough was slowly moving south through
eastern New Mexico.  A surface trough was found from LBL to GUY to
DHT and a cold front was pushing south across southeast Colorado and
southwest Kansas.  A cluster of thunderstorms has developed on the
eastern side of the short wave right near the New Mexico state line.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop and expand across the western
and central Texas Panhandle this afternoon.  Other more isolated
storms may form across the central or eastern Oklahoma Panhandle
ahead of the surface trough. Other storms may form in the southeast
Texas Panhandle where other outflow boundaries exist.  The main
threats with thunderstorms through tonight will be heavy rain which
may lead to localized flooding and strong gusty winds.  More
thunderstorms will be possible mainly for the southern Texas
Panhandle towards sunrise along the cold front.

On Tuesday, thunderstorms will be possible, mainly for the southern
Texas Panhandle where the better moisture and instability will
exist. Storms should slowly end from north to south late Tuesday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

A mostly quiet long term period is expected for the Texas and
Oklahoma Panhandles. Temperatures over the next week will be near
normal, with highs in the mid to upper 80s and low 90s. A few
low-end chances for precipitation are possible on Wednesday and
Friday.

High pressure centered over the Desert Southwest will continue to
bring north to northwest flow across the Southern High Plains
during the extended forecast. The 29/12z suite of model guidance
continues to trend downwards with regards to possible
precipitation on Wednesday across the CWA. There is still an
outside chance a shower or storm forms across the southern zones
or reaches for the northwest in the evening, but chances are
decreasing. Thursday and a majority of the day on Friday will be
quiet weather wise, with slightly increasing temperatures on both
days. A subtle disturbance is forecast to trek across the
forecast area on Friday evening into early morning Saturday. Given
possible northerly to northeasterly flow aloft and a disparity
between deterministic/ensemble guidance, have kept the low-end NBM
PoPs for now. The flow aloft is not ideal for precipitation
chances, but will keep the chances in for now. Upper level high
continues to build across the western CONUS through the weekend
with temperatures cooling off by a couple of degrees on Saturday
and continuing into Sunday.

Muscha

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1153 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

Thunderstorms are expected to affect the DHT and AMA TAF sites
this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms should remain southwest
of GUY. The storms may bring localized strong wind gusts. Winds
are expected to switch around to the north behind a cold front
overnight, but speeds are still expected to remain around 10 knots
or less. Skies are expected to be VFR outside of thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                64  87  64  86 /  50  30  10  10
Beaver OK                  66  92  63  93 /  20  10   0   0
Boise City OK              62  87  60  89 /  20  10   0   0
Borger TX                  67  92  67  92 /  30  20  10  10
Boys Ranch TX              64  88  65  88 /  50  30  10  10
Canyon TX                  63  86  63  86 /  60  40  10  10
Clarendon TX               67  87  67  88 /  60  40  20  10
Dalhart TX                 60  88  60  88 /  30  20  10  10
Guymon OK                  64  91  62  91 /  20  10   0   0
Hereford TX                63  87  63  86 /  70  40  20  20
Lipscomb TX                65  91  63  92 /  30  10   0   0
Pampa TX                   65  89  64  89 /  30  20  10  10
Shamrock TX                67  91  66  91 /  40  30  10  10
Wellington TX              69  91  68  92 /  40  40  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...15

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
144 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-300845-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
144 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms will be possible today across the Panhandles. The
better chances will be to the south. Storms could be severe with
wind and hail as the main threats. Localized heavy rainfall could
lead to flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Thunderstorms possible again on Tuesday. Coverage will be very
limited and isolated to the far south on Tuesday. Thunderstorms
will be possible again Friday night across the western and central
Panhandles. Thunderstorms are not expected to be severe at this
time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

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