Severe Thunderstorm Warning 178, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
656 PM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022

.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs, expect showers and thunderstorms to continue
across parts of the area tonight. However, confidence is very low
as to whether any TAF sites will be impacted or not so have
refrained from mentioning in this fcst cycle. Will monitor radar
trends closely, and amendments may become necessary. Otherwise, in
the absence of thunderstorms, VFR conditions are forecast to
prevail at the terminal sites through late Wednesday afternoon.

02

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 251 PM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022/

SHORT TERM...Tonight Wednesday Night...

High pressure continues to circulate over the NM area with subtle
shortwaves embedded.  With higher humidities today convective
temperatures in the low to mid 90s, in conjunction with a shortwave
that is moving over the area, certainly could set up chances for
storms.  CAMs are a bit mixed with the overall coverage and chances,
with a few suggesting the southwest may only see a storm, to
possibly more scattered storms along the I40 Corridor along and
mostly west of Amarillo.  Storms could produce outflows that push
east and trigger new storms as the weak 500mb flow will be out of
the west, so that could help to push some storms east with those new
outflows. Heavy rain will be favored with any storms as PWAT's are
expected to be in the 1.10" to 1.30" range.  Given the weak steering
flow storms could be slow moving and cause localized flooding
issues.  Right now storms that trigger are only expected to be
strong in nature, but it's summer and there's always that chance
that something could over perform, the DCAPE values in the west don't
support very strong wind gusts, but surface based CAPE could be
upwards of 2000 J/kg,which might allow a storm to over perform,
despite it being summer.

Tuesday is expected to be a bit warmer as the high shifts over the
area, however dewpoints will still remain in the 50s to maybe 60 in
a few areas, so it will still be a bit more muggy, and that will
keep the convective temperature in reach, but given that the high
will be further east, there may be enough subsidence to keep the
precipitation chances in check, and therefore have gone with less
than 10 pops for tomorrow.  Residual boundaries from todays storms
could play a role in convection tomorrow, so there is always a
chance that thunderstorms pick back up again tomorrow.

Weber

LONG TERM...
The center of an upper level high is expected to be near south-
central Colorado on Thursday.  This high is then expected move back
to the 4-corners region by Friday night.  Then the high may expand
more eastward across southern Colorado by early next week.

Subtropical moisture will continue to get caught up in the high
across the Southern Plains and Southern Rockies.

The devil will be in the details from day to day from Thursday
through next Monday.  Our chances of rain will tend to go up as the
upper high moves farther away from the Panhandles and our chances of
rain will tend to go down as the high moves closer to our area. But,
if a surface boundary ends up in the Panhandles while the high is
closer, it still may be strong enough to help lift the atmosphere to
get some showers and thunderstorms going.  But, the more likely
scenario for getting showers and thunderstorms into our area will be
when we are under a northwest flow aloft which will tend to bring
the shower and storm activity this way from the mountains.

Highs are expected to remain above normal Thursday through Monday
with readings generally in the 95 to 105 range, give or take a
few degrees.

AVIATION...18Z TAFS...
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24
hours. Possible storms at TAF sites from 22-06z time period, but
confidence is too low to note TAFs with anything other than
Amendments as needed. Most favorable TAF site would be KAMA,
possibly KDHT, but still couldn't rule out KGUY. Winds will be
east 5-15kts, shifting southeast in the 0-6z time period. Skies
will be few to scattered high clouds, but possible BKN-OVC mid
clouds if storms come near the TAF sites.

Weber

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

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