Severe Thunderstorm Warning 175, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
203 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022

.DISCUSSION...

As the main northern stream continues its low amplitude
propagating flow across the northern CONUS/southern Canada, the
main H500 subtropical anti-cyclonic flow continues to be a quasi-
stationary feature for the southern CONUS. With steering winds to
the north not strong enough to change the synoptic pattern, the
southern stream H500 broad high and where it sets up will dictate
our weather pattern for the next several days.

Starting this afternoon through portions of tonight, latest
RAP/hi-res data analysis shows a broad closed anti-cyclonic
circulation across eastern New Mexico where high terrain
convection has developed. Any perturbation around the periphery of
this broad closed H500 high may also help to generate additional
storms further east into the western Panhandles in-conjunction
with peak heating of the day. As thunderstorm develop, generated
outflow boundaries along with propagating cold pools may generate
more convection moving in multiple directions as the main
steering flow remains under 15 kts and areas under mostly clear
skies may see additional thunderstorm development as well.
Thunderstorms this afternoon may become severe with damaging winds
gusts being the main threat along with localized heavy rainfall
and/or flooding.

As the main H500 high pressure system becomes quasi-stationary
over the southern High Plains as of the latest 08/12Z model and
numerical data, monsoon flow should keep thunderstorm chances
south and west of the Panhandles Saturday through the first half
of Monday as large scale subsidence resides over the Panhandles
keeping us dry. As the center of the main H500 high moves west
over the Four Corners region, weak northerly H500 flow should
suffice for diurnal convection to move into the Panhandles for the
high terrain of CO/NM starting Monday night through Thursday. Not
everyone will see rainfall each day, but at least there will be
some chance of rainfall.

Temperatures through the forecast period will be near to above
average for mid July. The hottest days of the forecast period
will be Sunday and Monday where most locations could be near 100
degrees or above, especially on Monday where some heat headlines
maybe needed as some locations could reach 105 degrees.

Meccariello

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                68  95  70  97 /  30  10   5   0
Beaver OK                  69  96  71 101 /  20   5   0   0
Boise City OK              63  93  67  97 /  40   5   5   0
Borger TX                  71  98  72 101 /  30   5   5   0
Boys Ranch TX              69  97  71 100 /  40  10   5   0
Canyon TX                  67  95  68  98 /  30  10   5   0
Clarendon TX               72  95  72  98 /  20  10   5   0
Dalhart TX                 64  94  67  98 /  40   5   5   0
Guymon OK                  67  96  70 101 /  30   5   0   0
Hereford TX                68  96  69  99 /  30  10  10   0
Lipscomb TX                70  96  70 100 /  20   5   0   0
Pampa TX                   68  95  70  98 /  20   5   5   0
Shamrock TX                72  97  71  98 /  20   5   5   0
Wellington TX              74  99  72 100 /  20   5   5   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

29/29

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
209 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-091100-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
209 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through tonight across
the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. A few storms may become severe,
with damaging winds the primary hazard. In addition, the
strongest storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall,
which may lead to localized flooding or flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Panhandles
Monday afternoon through Wednesday evening. Widespread severe
storms are not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Limited spotter activation may become necessary late this
afternoon and evening.

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