Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
323 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tomorrow...

A robust upper closed low is spinning over south central into
southeast New Mexico with a surface low across eastern New Mexico.
Already seeing some low level moisture advection into the
southern Texas Panhandle with dewpoints in the mid 40s to lower
50s and thunderstorm development along a surface trough. Some
surface based CAPE is present in this environment with about 1000
J/kg with 0-6km bulk shear of 40 to 50 knots capable of producing
large hail and damaging winds gusts. These thunderstorms are
quickly moving north, but will eventually be pushed east as the
surface low pushes east this afternoon.

Meanwhile, the cold front has already entered the northwest
Panhandles with strong north winds and cold air quickly filtering
into the area behind the front. The interaction of this frontal
passage and thunderstorms will need to be monitored as this
collision may enhance storms momentarily before they crossover
into the colder air. Also, the storms have the potential to latch
onto the frontal boundary and ride east as it pushes south.

Heading into this evening, the severe thunderstorm potential will
shift eastward as the front is expected to be through much of the
Panhandles by this evening. Any rain showers will transition to
snow from west to east tonight. The 700mb closed low will swing
across the Panhandles tonight along with the upper closed low,
which will introduce additional wrap around moisture. Some of the
models are hinting at the potential for an axis of moisture to
pivot across the Panhandles. The exact location of this axis of
moisture is not certain, but in general the thought is that this
axis will potentially setup along the I-40 corridor from west to
east before tilting southwest to northeast across the central
Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.

Snow amounts have increased a bit with the potential for 3 to 5
inches across much of the central and southern Panhandles, with
hinting at the banding along the Canadian River Valley across I-40
west. Snow ratios continue to be lower, but they do approach a
10:1 ratio later tonight as colder air filters into the forecast
area with the passing of the upper low. These snow ratios will
give way to wet and heavy snow, which leads to the potential for
slow accumulation given temperatures will be marginal at the
surface. Therefore the roads may start off wet with the snow, but
if heavier snowfall does occur then the accumulation potential
increases as the ground temperatures will be overcome. Strong
north winds are expected to increase behind the front tonight with
sustained winds of 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 50 to 60 mph
possible across much of the Panhandles through tomorrow. Given the
potential for the strong winds to line up with the moderate to
heavy snow periods, there is a likelihood for blizzard like
conditions of strongly reduced visibility. Since the snow is
heavier and wetter this go around, there is not as much of a
chance for the snow to blow and drift around once it starts
accumulating as it will stick to surfaces better.

The Winter Weather Advisory will be upgraded to a Blizzard Warning
in regards to the potential impacts from blowing snow and reduced
visibility across the Oklahoma Panhandle and much of the Texas
Panhandle.

Most of the precipitation will be over by tomorrow morning with a
slight chance for lingering rain/snow across the northeast early
tomorrow afternoon. Strong north winds will continue through the
day tomorrow with the potential for a wind highlight being needed
following the end of the snow and Blizzard Warning tomorrow
morning.

Tomorrow's temperatures have been lowered a bit from NBM to
reflect the potential lingering snow cover along with mostly
cloudy skies and strong north winds.

Rutt

&&

.LONG TERM...
North winds are expected to stay up in the 20 to 30 mph range with
higher gusts Tuesday night and Wednesday as the upper level low
slowly pulls away from the Panhandles. Winds will remain out of the
northwest on Thursday, but will be more in the 15 to 20 mph range.
Another cold front moves across the Panhandles on Friday pushing the
winds back up to 20 to 30 mph as an upper level short wave moves
southeast across the Central Plains.  Upper level heights will then
rise through the weekend which will help to send high temperatures
above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                30  44  30  53  29 /  90   5   0   5   0
Beaver OK                  29  46  28  53  25 / 100  30   0   5   0
Boise City OK              27  43  26  50  25 /  90   5   0   5   0
Borger TX                  32  47  32  55  29 /  90  10   0   5   0
Boys Ranch TX              31  48  29  55  26 /  90   5   0   5   0
Canyon TX                  28  44  28  53  27 /  90   5   0   5   0
Clarendon TX               34  46  33  54  32 /  70  10   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 27  45  26  52  23 /  80   0   0   5   0
Guymon OK                  29  46  29  54  26 / 100  20   0   5   0
Hereford TX                29  46  28  54  26 /  90   5   0   5   0
Lipscomb TX                31  45  30  53  26 /  90  30   0   5   0
Pampa TX                   30  44  30  52  29 /  90  10   0   5   0
Shamrock TX                33  47  33  55  30 /  80  10   0   0   0
Wellington TX              35  48  34  57  30 /  60  10   0   0   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Blizzard Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Tuesday for
     the following zones: Armstrong...Carson...Deaf Smith...
     Gray...Hansford...Hutchinson...Lipscomb...Moore...
     Ochiltree...Oldham...Palo Duro Canyon...Potter...Randall...
     Roberts...Sherman.

     Blizzard Warning until 10 AM CDT Tuesday for the following
     zones: Dallam...Hartley.

OK...Blizzard Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Tuesday for
     the following zones: Beaver...Texas.

     Blizzard Warning until 10 AM CDT Tuesday for the following
     zones: Cimarron.

&&

23/15

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
328 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-221000-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
328 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible today into early this evening across
the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Isolated storms may become
severe across parts of the central and eastern Texas Panhandle,
with large hail and damaging winds the primary hazards.

Accumulating snow along with patchy blowing snow, strong north
winds and sharply reduced visibilities is expected across the
Oklahoma Panhandle and most of the Texas Panhandle except the
southeast section beginning late this afternoon and continuing
through tonight. A Blizzard Warning is in effect for this area
during this time period.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A Blizzard Warning is in effect until mid Tuesday morning across
the Oklahoma Panhandle and most of the Texas Panhandle except the
southeast section. Three to five inches of total snowfall
accumulation are expected along with patchy blowing snow, strong
north winds and sharply reduced visibilities.

Strong north winds are anticipated Tuesday across the area, and
wind headlines may become necessary.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
110 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

TXZ012-017-211845-
Potter TX-Randall TX-
110 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Randall
and southwestern Potter Counties through 145 PM CDT...

At 110 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles northwest of Mescalero Park, or 8 miles southwest of Amarillo,
moving north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Amarillo, Mescalero Park and Bushland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3504 10186 3505 10208 3540 10209 3537 10176
TIME...MOT...LOC 1810Z 185DEG 21KT 3512 10196

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

LFM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
159 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

TXZ011-012-016-017-211930-
Potter TX-Randall TX-Deaf Smith TX-Oldham TX-
159 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Randall,
eastern Oldham, northeastern Deaf Smith and Potter Counties through
230 PM CDT...

At 158 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles north of Amarillo to 3 miles east of
Wildorado to 9 miles southwest of Boys Ranch. Movement was northeast
at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Amarillo, Vega, Boys Ranch, Wildorado, Bushland and Valley De Oro.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3506 10266 3558 10251 3561 10167 3542 10175
      3509 10189
TIME...MOT...LOC 1858Z 227DEG 29KT 3531 10187 3522 10218 3545 10240

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

LFM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
247 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

TXZ011-212015-
Oldham TX-
247 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Oldham
County through 315 PM CDT...

At 246 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northeast of Vega, moving north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Vega, Boys Ranch and Wildorado.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3563 10216 3521 10217 3522 10260 3562 10261
TIME...MOT...LOC 1946Z 192DEG 9KT 3537 10232

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

LFM

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