Red Flag Warning 39, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1241 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

.AVIATION...
18Z Issuance...All sites are expected to remain VFR through the
period. Southwest winds this afternoon will be gusting 25-30kts.
Winds will remain breezy overnight with winds around 13-15kts. A
cold front will turn winds northerly from 09-13Z and have gusts of
25-30kts again.

Beat

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 452 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022/

DISCUSSION...Today through Wednesday.
Dry weather returns for today through Sunday since the low level
moisture will be scoured out as broad west to southwest flow
aloft commences as an upper level trof of low pressure develops
over the western and northern parts of the United States. Well
above normal temperatures in the 90s to around 104 degrees are
anticipated this afternoon, with the Palo Duro Canyon State Park
possibly reaching 106 degrees or so, and a Heat Advisory has been
issued for that area with this forecast package. A strong cold
front will track across the region late tonight and Friday morning
with much cooler temperatures in store Friday into early next
week. Medium range models have continued to trend towards better
agreement with additional precipitation prospects late Sunday
night through Tuesday night as a fairly sharp upper level trof of
low pressure traverses the southern and central high plains. NBM
pops support the above scenario and were incorporated into the
grids for late Sunday night through Tuesday night. Dry weather
resumes Wednesday.

02

FIRE WEATHER...Today and Friday.
Most of the showers and thunderstorms occurred across northern
and western parts of the forecast area late Tuesday afternoon and
night. The recent rainfall that has occurred the past few days is
expected to preclude widespread critical fire weather conditions
today. However, elevated fire weather conditions are expected to
develop this afternoon into early this evening across the western
Oklahoma Panhandle as well as western and parts of the south
central Texas Panhandle due to twenty foot west southwest winds of
15 to 25 mph with some higher gusts along with minimum relative
humidity values of 5 to 8 percent. Elevated fire weather conditions
may develop across parts of the area on Friday.

Information worth noting from the day shift forecasters on Wednesday
regarding greenup in our area is that greenup is prevalent on the
NDVI satellite imagery to the west of Dalhart eastward and also east
of a Guymon to Amarillo line.

02

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...OK...
&&

16/29

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
423 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-192100-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
423 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

High temperatures around 106 degrees are anticipated today at
the Palo Duro Canyon State Park. A Heat Advisory is in effect
for this area from 2 PM this afternoon until 7 PM CDT this
evening.

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to develop this
afternoon into early this evening across the western Oklahoma
Panhandle as well as western and parts of the south central Texas
Panhandle due to west southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with some
higher gusts along with minimum relative humidity values of 5 to
8 percent.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Elevated fire weather conditions may develop across parts of the
area on Friday.

Thunderstorms are possible across the area late Sunday night through
Tuesday night. Any storms that form are expected to remain below
severe levels at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Area fire managers and emergency officials should be alert for
elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon into early this
evening and possibly again on Friday.

02