Wind Chill Advisory 7, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
211 PM EST Sat Jan 29 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Our coastal storm will depart tonight with very cold
temperatures and blustery winds resulting in dangerous wind
chills overnight, especially in higher terrain areas. Then, high
pressure will remain in control through early next week giving
us dry yet chilly temperatures. Milder air returns to the area
middle part of next week.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Winter Storm Warning in effect for Litchfield County until
midnight tonight.

Winter Weather Advisory in effect for Dutchess, Berkshire and
Windham counties until midnight tonight.

As of 1pm...Coastal storm continues exiting into the Canadian
Maritimes early this afternoon with latest RAP and WPC analysis
suggesting the coastal low has deepened impressively to ~975hPa
and met the definition of a "bomb cyclone" (deepening 24 hPa in
24 hours). As the storms tracks well north and east of the
40N/70W benchmark, snow will pull out of the mid-Hudson Valley,
Taconics and western New England late this afternoon, ending for
most areas by 19 UTC and 22 UTC (2 to 5pm). Latest radar
reflectivity show northerly winds advecting in dry air which is
eroding away the precipitation shield.

Very cold temperatures and increasingly breezy conditions will
be the next hazards to monitor closely as northerly winds are
funneling in very chilly arctic air. While temperatures in the
single digits are improving ever so slightly as the snow ends
and clouds thin some, cold air draining southward will prevent
temperatures from rising much more and should peak in the upper
single digits to low teens. With winds strengthening to 8 to 15mph
and gusts up to 20 - 30mph through sunset, wind chills will be
-15F to 0 so dress appropriately in layers and limit your time
outdoors if you venture out to clear walkways, driveways or
vehicles. In addition, the winds have resulted in blowing and
drifting snow and snow could recover roads or sidewalks even
after they have been cleared.

Clouds clear out tonight and winds strengthen this evening as
the pressure gradient tightens overhead. Sustained winds 12 to
18mph and gusts to 20 to 30mph combined with temperatures in the
single digits will result in dangerous wind chills falling to -10F
to -30F. While winds gradually weaken after midnight, temperatures
will continue to drop, bottoming out between 0 and -15F by
sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will bring a mostly sunny and dry but chilly day
on Sunday with less wind. After a cold start, temperatures will
rebound into the teens and 20s for most with perhaps some
lingering single digits across the Adirondacks and southern
Greens.

Sunday night, a weak shortwave trough and weak, moisture starved
surface low, will push across the region bringing a slight
increase in cloud cover. There may be enough of a time for
organized westerly wind flow to result in a brief period of
lake-effect snow for the southern Adirondacks, though there are
some differences in the guidance on this potential. Will hold
pops in the slight chance to low chance category at this time.
Should it evolve, light accumulations will be possible.
Elsewhere, it will remain dry with lows mainly in the single
digits with some higher elevations possible dipping a few
degrees below zero.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Changeable weather this week with temperatures moderating to
above normal with rain expected then a return to winter as the
work week ends.

Guidance continues to develop a deep elongated trough over the
western United States by midweek and has it moving eastward
across the CONUS with downstream ridging occurring and deep
southwest flow developing across our region. The result will be
a slow moving front expected to cross our region late in the
week as waves of low pressure move northward along it bringing
above normal temperatures and widespread precipitation to the
area. There are timing differences with the passage of the
boundary across our region and timing and amplitude differences
regarding the main wave of low pressure. Best chances for
widespread precipitation are Wednesday night through Thursday
night with precipitation transitioning from snow to rain back to
snow with a wintry mix possible. The system is expected to tap
gulf moisture. Expecting highs Thursday 10 to 15 degrees above
normal in the mid 30s to near 50 degrees with a return to
seasonable cold readings for Friday behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Conditions range from VFR at ALB and GFL to
LIFR at POU and PSF as of 1230 PM EST. ALB and GFL should remain VFR
through the TAF period. Strengthening coastal storm continues to
impact the region with snow and wind. At POU, expecting reduced
visibilities and snow to continue for the next couple hours, with
conditions then becoming VFR by mid to late afternoon as the snow
ends. Similar story at PSF, although snow may likely lasts a couple
hours longer here into late afternoon/early evening. Stronger wind
gusts at PSF could also lead to some blowing snow this afternoon and
evening. However, PSF too will see improvement to VFR ceilings and
visibilities by this evening. Once conditions become VFR, they
should remain VFR through at least the end of the TAF period with
just some SCT mid to high clouds.

Winds are mainly from the north at this time at around 10 kt with
some gusts up to 25 kt. With coastal storm continuing to strengthen
offshore through the evening, expecting winds to pick up this
evening to 10-15 kts with gusts of 25-30 kts. Winds also gradually
shift from the north to northwest this afternoon and evening.
Tonight, wind remain elevated until around midnight from the
west/northwest. After midnight, winds decrease to around 10 kt and
gusts diminish at all TAF sites except PSF. For tomorrow, winds will
be mainly between 5-10 kt from the northwest with gusts to 15 kt
possible at ALB and PSF.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA.
Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA...SN.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Cold weather will remain in place through the weekend into early
next week, although temps will start to moderate towards
midweek. With the cold temperatures in place, this should
continue to keep plenty of ice in place on rivers and streams.

A winter storm will impact southeastern areas into tonight.
Precipitation with this system will be all snow, which will
have no immediate impact on rivers and streams. Behind this
storm, mainly dry weather is expected through the middle of
next week, which will keep river levels fairly steady. Our next
round of precipitation looks to arrive toward the end of next
week and could be a mix of rain and snow.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Chill Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Sunday
     for CTZ001-013.
     Winter Storm Warning until midnight EST tonight for CTZ001-013.
NY...Wind Chill Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Sunday
     for NYZ038>043-048-054-061-066-082-083.
     Wind Chill Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Sunday
     for NYZ032-033-047-051-058-063.
     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for NYZ065-
     066.
MA...Wind Chill Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Sunday
     for MAZ001-025.
     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for MAZ001-
     025.
VT...Wind Chill Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Sunday
     for VTZ013-014.
     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for VTZ014-
     015.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Speciale
NEAR TERM...Speciale
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...Main
HYDROLOGY...Rathbun

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
612 AM EST Sat Jan 29 2022

MAZ001-025-NYZ065-066-VTZ014-015-301200-
Northern Berkshire-Southern Berkshire-Western Dutchess-
Eastern Dutchess-Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
612 AM EST Sat Jan 29 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Massachusetts, Dutchess
County in eastern New York and Windham County in southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

Cold air and gusty winds will likely result in dangerously low wind
chills tonight into Sunday morning. A Wind Chill Advisory will
likely be needed for some areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report winter precipitation
amounts to the National Weather Service in Albany New York via phone,
email or social media.

NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063-064-082>084-VTZ013-301200-
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-
Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-Northern Washington-
Schoharie-Western Schenectady-Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-
Western Albany-Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-
Western Greene-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-
Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-
Southern Washington-Bennington-
612 AM EST Sat Jan 29 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern New York excluding
Dutchess County and Bennington County in southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A coastal storm may spread some light snowfall to parts of the area
on Saturday. Slippery travel is possible, mainly for areas south and
east of the Capital Region.

Cold air and gusty winds will result in dangerously low wind chills
tonight into Sunday morning. A Wind Chill Advisory will be needed
for some areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

CTZ001-013-301200-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-
612 AM EST Sat Jan 29 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Litchfield County in
northwestern Connecticut.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

Cold air and gusty winds may result in dangerously low wind chills
Saturday night into Sunday. A Wind Chill Advisory may be needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report winter precipitation
amounts to the National Weather Service in Albany New York via phone,
email or social media.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
154 PM EST SAT JAN 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     SNOW             HOPEWELL JUNCTION       41.59N  73.80W
01/29/2022  M5.0 INCH        DUTCHESS           NY   SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY2200898

MEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
204 PM EST SAT JAN 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0125 PM     SNOW             CHATHAM                 42.36N  73.60W
01/29/2022  M2.5 INCH        COLUMBIA           NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY2200899

MEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
226 PM EST SAT JAN 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1116 AM     SNOW             WEST KILL               42.20N  74.33W
01/29/2022  M5.2 INCH        GREENE             NY   WEATHERNET6

            WEATHERNET6

1149 AM     SNOW             ANCRAMDALE              42.05N  73.59W
01/29/2022  M2.1 INCH        COLUMBIA           NY   WEATHERNET6

            WEATHERNET6

1156 AM     SNOW             WOODFORD                42.89N  73.01W
01/29/2022  M3.0 INCH        BENNINGTON         VT   WEATHERNET6

            WEATHERNET6

0114 PM     SNOW             RED HOOK                42.02N  73.88W
01/29/2022  M4.2 INCH        DUTCHESS           NY   WEATHERNET6

            WEATHERNET6

0156 PM     SNOW             CATSKILL                42.22N  73.87W
01/29/2022  M1.5 INCH        GREENE             NY   WEATHERNET6

            WEATHERNET6

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY2200900
EVENT NUMBER ALY2200901
EVENT NUMBER ALY2200902
EVENT NUMBER ALY2200903
EVENT NUMBER ALY2200904

JPV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
229 PM EST SAT JAN 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0218 PM     SNOW             3 S SANDISFIELD         42.07N  73.14W
01/29/2022  M5.6 INCH        BERKSHIRE          MA   SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY2200905

MEM

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
254 PM EST SAT JAN 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     SNOW             1 ENE BEEKMAN           41.64N  73.73W
01/29/2022  M3.5 INCH        DUTCHESS           NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY2200907

ATE