Wind Advisory 7, NWS Albany, NY

831 
WWUS71 KALY 080136
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
936 PM EDT Thu Apr 7 2022

MAZ001-NYZ054-VTZ013-080600-
/O.CON.KALY.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-220408T0600Z/
Northern Berkshire-Eastern Rensselaer-Bennington-
Including the cities of Dalton, Hancock, Pittsfield, Florida, 
North Adams, Berlin, Eagle Bridge, Hoosick Falls, Stephentown, 
Stamford, Bennington, Woodford State Park, and Pownal
936 PM EDT Thu Apr 7 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* WHERE...In Vermont, Bennington County. In New York, Eastern 
  Rensselaer County. In Massachusetts, Northern Berkshire County.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The highest wind gusts will likely occur
  late this afternoon into this evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

546 
WWUS71 KALY 080547
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
147 AM EDT Fri Apr 8 2022

MAZ001-NYZ054-VTZ013-080700-
/O.CAN.KALY.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-220408T0600Z/
Northern Berkshire-Eastern Rensselaer-Bennington-
Including the cities of Dalton, Hancock, Pittsfield, Florida, 
North Adams, Berlin, Eagle Bridge, Hoosick Falls, Stephentown, 
Stamford, Bennington, Woodford State Park, and Pownal
147 AM EDT Fri Apr 8 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Although east to southeast winds may still gust up to 35 mph over
the next few hours, the potential for stronger wind gusts up to 50
mph has ended.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
635 AM EDT Thu Apr 7 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A large, slow moving storm system will move towards the area
today into tonight, bringing periods of rain, with some locally
moderate bursts of rain and a rumble of thunder possible later
this afternoon into early tonight. Rain will finally taper off
later tonight. Although it will be seasonable mild, a few
lingering showers and some clouds will continue for Friday, with
cooler and unsettled conditions expected over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 630 AM EDT, areas of light to moderate rain continue
translating northeast from the eastern Catskills, Capital Region
and southern VT and points north and west, with little if any
rain ongoing across western MA, the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT.
There could be some showers grazing northwest portions of the
mid Hudson Valley, central Taconics and Berkshires over the next
1-3 hours, with occasional showers continuing farther north and
west.

As mid level winds back more into the south/southwest, the area
of rain should become more confined to areas mainly west of the
Hudson River by mid to late morning, with some areas of western
New England potentially remaining dry for several hours through
early afternoon. Even within portions of the immediate Hudson
River Valley from Albany south and east, there could be a break
from any rain or showers later this morning through early
afternoon, while areas from northern Schoharie County into the
western Mohawk Valley and southwest Adirondacks experience
periods of light to moderate rain through a good portion of the
day.

Low level southeast winds will increase through the day, and may
become quite gusty at times later this morning into this
afternoon across or just west of the southern Greens, Berkshires
and Taconics, where some gusts of 30-40 mph may occur. Even
stronger gusts are possible, especially if rain holds off,
allowing for slightly deeper mixing.

Max temps should range from the mid 40s to lower/mid 50s, with
the warmest temperatures possibly across portions of the upper
Hudson Valley, where rain may become more showery at times, and
some added warming from downsloping E/SE winds are possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight, steady rain should overspread the region this evening,
with moderate to locally heavy elements embedded within. The
best chance for heaviest rain will be across favorable upslope
areas of the southeast Catskills, and portions of the SW
Adirondacks and northern portions of the Mohawk Valley, which
tend to maximize QPF within a southeast H925-850 flow regime
per CSTAR research. There could be localized rainfall amounts of
2-3" in some of these areas. In addition, there could be some
rumbles of thunder, mainly for areas south of I-90 this evening
through around midnight, as some elevated instability develops.
Models remain consistent suggesting a wave of low pressure
develops near or over the Delmarva region this evening, and then
translates north/northeast into southern New England,
intensifying the southeast low level jet into our region this
evening. In fact, some hi-res guidance suggests H925 winds reach
40-45 KT across portions of the Taconics, southern Greens and
northern Berkshires for a few hours this evening. If there
remains any dry air within the boundary layer, this could allow
for slightly deeper mixing and stronger winds to reach the
surface in these areas. At this time, current forecast indicates
max wind gusts of 35-45 mph in this area, however should the
potential for even stronger wind gusts increase, a wind advisory
may be needed. Steady rain should taper to showers from
southwest to northeast after midnight, along with decreasing
winds for areas of the southern Greens/Taconics and northern
Berkshires. Lows by daybreak mainly in the mid 30s to lower 40s.
There could be some wet snow mixing in for elevations above 1800
feet as well after midnight.

Friday-Friday night, main forcing lifts north/east of the region
Friday morning, with mainly diurnal instability driven shower
potential for the afternoon/evening hours, especially across the
southwest Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley extending into the
eastern Catskills. Latest 00Z/07 HREFs suggest some pockets of
shallow instability may develop Friday afternoon, as there could
be some breaks of sun developing. So, in addition to isolated to
scattered showers developing, can not rule out a rogue
thunderstorm or two. Showers may become more numerous later
Friday night, as a PV anomaly rotates around the eastern side of
upper level low. Some snow may also occur for higher terrain
areas of the eastern Catskills and SW Adirondacks after
midnight, as colder air aloft builds in. It should be milder
Friday, with highs reaching the 50s in many valley areas, with
some lower 60s possible, especially within the mid Hudson
Valley. Lows Friday night in the mid 30s to around 40.

Aforementioned upper level disturbance should pass by Saturday
morning, with main upper level trough still approaching from the
west. This should lead to fairly numerous coverage of showers,
especially during the morning, and again later in the afternoon
due to increasing instability. Isolated thunderstorms containing
graupel/small hail can not be ruled out, especially should any
breaks in the clouds develop. Also, higher terrain areas may see
some snow showers in the afternoon. Highs Saturday in the mid
40s to lower 50s. Showers may decrease in coverage Saturday
night as instability wanes, however showers may persist across
portions of the Mohawk Valley and southwest Adirondacks, which
may turn to snow with minor accumulations possible. Lows mainly
in the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Guidance is in agreement the upper trough axis, remnants of the
upper low level, will finally begin to move off to our east
Sunday. However cyclonic flow will persist across region with
short waves moving through the flow with lingering chances for
some showers along with cool temperatures. Heights will finally
begin to rise Sunday night as a sharp ridge builds in with
seasonable lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s expected. The upper
ridge is expected to crest over the region Monday as well as the
high pressure at the surface with fair and warmer conditions.

The ridging at the surface and aloft is expected to weaken and
shift off to the east Monday night. A warm front is expected to
lift north across the region Tuesday however the guidance does
differs with the amount of forcing that will accompany the
boundary and hence the threat for showers. At this time have
slight to low chance pops, but what is more certain is warmer,
above normal temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs
Tuesday are expected to range from around 50 degrees into the
upper 60s with readings a bit warmer Wednesday from the mid 50s
to around 70 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A slow moving storm system will impact the area through tonight.
The area of low pressure over the Great Lakes Region will
gradually weaken while a secondary low develops over the mid-
Atlantic region and tracks northeastward into southern New
England tonight. Periods of rain are expected through much of
the day with steadier and heavier rain developing by late this
afternoon and continuing through this evening as an occluded
boundary gets closer to the area. Widespread MVFR conditions
will develop with IFR developing in the heavier rain then
persisting through the overnight. Isolated thunderstorms are
possible late in day into this evening with the best chances of
occurrence at KPOU so have a PROB30 mention there. The occluded
boundary will cross the area overnight with the steady rain
tapering off to showers from southwest to northeast.

A strong southeasterly low level jet will impact KPOU late in
the day into this evening with flow at 2000 feet increasing to
40 to 50 knots.

Surface winds will be east-southeast and will increase today
especially across the higher terrain particularly across
western New England. Winds at KPSF are expected the strongest
with sustained winds near 20 knots and gusts around 30 knots in
the evening. Winds will subside and shift the the north-
northwest overnight.

Outlook...

Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Numerous SHRA.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low  Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A widespread soaking rain will develop across the region later
today into tonight. Cool and unsettled conditions are then
expected Friday through Sunday.

RH values will drop to 55-70 percent early this afternoon,
lowest across southern VT and the upper Hudson Valley, then will
climb to near 100 percent tonight.

Southeast winds will become gusty today into this evening, with
some gusts of 35 to 45 mph possible across higher elevations,
especially southern Vermont and the northern Taconics. Winds
will become lighter, and shift into the south to southwest for
Friday and Friday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A slow moving frontal boundary will bring periods of rain to the
region today into tonight. Rainfall will taper off to showers
late tonight. The heaviest rainfall will likely be late this
afternoon into early tonight, when rainfall rates may exceed
0.25 inch per hour. Rainfall amounts will 1-2 inches for most
valley areas, with some high terrain areas receiving up to
three inches (especially the eastern Catskills and southern
Adirondacks).

This rainfall will allow for ponding of water on roadways, as
well as in urban, low lying and poor drainage areas. Some small
streams may reach bankfull across the high terrain. There is a
marginal risk for flash flooding. While rises are expected on
larger rivers, the main stem rivers are not expected to reach
flood stage at this time.

Although some showers are expected Friday into the weekend,
any rainfall will be lighter and rivers and streams will be
receding.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Frugis/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...Frugis/KL
HYDROLOGY...Frugis/KL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
452 AM EDT Thu Apr 7 2022

CTZ001-013-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>053-058>060-063>066-082>084-VTZ015-
081100-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-
Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-
Northern Warren-Northern Washington-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany-
Western Rensselaer-Western Greene-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-
Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-
Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-Southern Washington-Eastern Windham-
452 AM EDT Thu Apr 7 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut,
eastern New York excluding the central Taconics, and for eastern
Windham County in southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A slow moving storm system will bring periods of rain to the region
for today into tonight. Some of the rainfall may be moderate to
heavy at times, which may result in ponding of water in urban, low
lying and poor drainage areas. There is a marginal risk for flash
flooding for the area.

There is a slight chance for a thunderstorm this afternoon and
evening, mainly for areas south of Interstate 90.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon into early
tonight.

MAZ001-025-NYZ054-061-VTZ013-014-081100-
Northern Berkshire-Southern Berkshire-Eastern Rensselaer-
Eastern Columbia-Bennington-Western Windham-
452 AM EDT Thu Apr 7 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Massachusetts, the
central Taconics of eastern New York, and for Bennington and western
Windham Counties in southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A slow moving storm system will bring periods of rain to the region
for today into tonight. Some of the rainfall may be moderate to
heavy at times, which may result in ponding of water in urban, low
lying and poor drainage areas. There is a marginal risk for flash
flooding for the area.

Gusty east to southeast winds are possible across the high terrain
of the Taconics, Berkshires and southern Greens this afternoon and
evening. Winds may be strong enough to down some trees or tree limbs.
Should the potential for strong winds increase, then a Wind Advisory
may be needed.

There is a slight chance for a thunderstorm this afternoon and
evening, mainly for areas south of Interstate 90.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon into early
tonight.