Alert archive / New York / Wind Advisories in 2022

Wind Advisory 2, NWS Albany, NY

February 18, 202212 counties in New York; Northwest Hills Planning Region, Connecticut; Berkshire County, Massachusetts

NWS Albany, NY issued this wind advisory at Feb 18, 2022, 3:30 PM EST for 12 counties in New York; Northwest Hills Planning Region, Connecticut; Berkshire County, Massachusetts. It took effect at Feb 19, 2022, 10:00 AM EST. It was in force for 12 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Feb 18, 2022, 3:30 PM EST (20:30 UTC)
In effect from
Feb 19, 2022, 10:00 AM EST
Expired
Feb 19, 2022, 10:00 PM EST
In force
12 hr
Issued by
NWS Albany, NY

Counties Northwest Hills Planning Region, CT, Berkshire County, MA, Albany County, NY, Columbia County, NY, Dutchess County, NY, Fulton County, NY, Greene County, NY, Herkimer County, NY, Montgomery County, NY, Rensselaer County, NY, Saratoga County, NY, Schenectady County, NY, Schoharie County, NY, Ulster County, NY

The radar

The Albany radar (KENX), 8 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 8.5 hours before the alert went out and 21 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Albany, NY at 12:00Z on 2022-02-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Albany, NY at 12:00Z on 2022-02-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -361 square meters per square second.1939587897117136156175Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
746 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
103 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-361 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-388 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

114 
WWUS71 KALY 182030
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
330 PM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ038>040-047>054-058>061-063>066-191100-
/O.NEW.KALY.WI.Y.0002.220219T1500Z-220220T0300Z/
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-Montgomery-
Schoharie-Western Schenectady-Eastern Schenectady-
Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany-
Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-Western Greene-
Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-
Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-
Including the cities of Torrington, Oakville, Gaylordsville, 
New Milford, Terryville, Thomaston, Dalton, Hancock, Pittsfield, 
Florida, North Adams, Sandisfield, Great Barrington, 
South Egremont, Ilion, Herkimer, Little Falls, Mohawk, Frankfort,
Dolgeville, Gloversville, Johnstown, Amsterdam, Cobleskill, 
Breakabeen, Gilboa, Livingstonville, Middleburgh, North Blenheim,
Jefferson, Mariaville, Delanson, Duanesburg, Schenectady, 
Rotterdam, Burnt Hills, Ballston Spa, Mechanicville, 
Clifton Park, Waterford, Westerlo, Altamont, Berne, Knox, 
Preston Hollow, Albany, Troy, Berlin, Eagle Bridge, 
Hoosick Falls, Stephentown, Hunter, Tannersville, Windham, 
Prattsville, Catskill, Coxsackie, Athens, Cairo, 
Jefferson Heights, Hudson, New Lebanon, Ellenville, Woodstock, 
West Hurley, West Shokan, Kerhonkson, Napanoch, Sundown, 
Kingston, New Paltz, Poughkeepsie, Beacon, Arlington, Pawling, 
Wingdale, Dover Plains, Millbrook, Stanfordville, Pine Plains, 
and Amenia
330 PM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...The Mohawk and Schoharie valleys, Capital District,
  eastern Catskills, Taconics and mid-Hudson Valley in eastern 
  New York, western Massachusetts and northwestern Connecticut

* WHEN...From 10 AM to 10 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$
4 follow-up statements
477 
WWUS71 KALY 190832
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
332 AM EST Sat Feb 19 2022

NYZ041-082-192130-
/O.EXA.KALY.WI.Y.0002.220219T1500Z-220220T0300Z/
Northern Saratoga-Northern Fulton-
Including the cities of Saratoga Lake, Saratoga Springs, 
and Caroga Lake
332 AM EST Sat Feb 19 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts 40 to 50 mph

* WHERE...Northern Saratoga and Northern Fulton Counties.

* WHEN...From 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ038>040-047>054-058>061-063>066-192130-
/O.CON.KALY.WI.Y.0002.220219T1500Z-220220T0300Z/
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-Montgomery-
Schoharie-Western Schenectady-Eastern Schenectady-
Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany-
Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-Western Greene-
Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-
Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-
Including the cities of Torrington, Oakville, Gaylordsville, 
New Milford, Terryville, Thomaston, Dalton, Hancock, Pittsfield, 
Florida, North Adams, Sandisfield, Great Barrington, 
South Egremont, Ilion, Herkimer, Little Falls, Mohawk, Frankfort,
Dolgeville, Gloversville, Johnstown, Amsterdam, Cobleskill, 
Breakabeen, Gilboa, Livingstonville, Middleburgh, North Blenheim,
Jefferson, Mariaville, Delanson, Duanesburg, Schenectady, 
Rotterdam, Burnt Hills, Ballston Spa, Mechanicville, 
Clifton Park, Waterford, Westerlo, Altamont, Berne, Knox, 
Preston Hollow, Albany, Troy, Berlin, Eagle Bridge, 
Hoosick Falls, Stephentown, Hunter, Tannersville, Windham, 
Prattsville, Catskill, Coxsackie, Athens, Cairo, 
Jefferson Heights, Hudson, New Lebanon, Ellenville, Woodstock, 
West Hurley, West Shokan, Kerhonkson, Napanoch, Sundown, 
Kingston, New Paltz, Poughkeepsie, Beacon, Arlington, Pawling, 
Wingdale, Dover Plains, Millbrook, Stanfordville, Pine Plains, 
and Amenia
332 AM EST Sat Feb 19 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...The Mohawk and Schoharie valleys, Capital District,
  eastern Catskills, Taconics and mid-Hudson Valley in eastern 
  New York, western Massachusetts and northwestern Connecticut.

* WHEN...From 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$
308 
WWUS71 KALY 191154
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
654 AM EST Sat Feb 19 2022

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082-
192130-
/O.CON.KALY.WI.Y.0002.220219T1500Z-220220T0300Z/
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-Montgomery-
Northern Saratoga-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-
Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-
Western Greene-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-
Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-
Northern Fulton-
Including the cities of Torrington, Oakville, Gaylordsville, 
New Milford, Terryville, Thomaston, Dalton, Hancock, Pittsfield, 
Florida, North Adams, Sandisfield, Great Barrington, 
South Egremont, Ilion, Herkimer, Little Falls, Mohawk, Frankfort,
Dolgeville, Gloversville, Johnstown, Amsterdam, Saratoga Lake, 
Saratoga Springs, Cobleskill, Breakabeen, Gilboa, 
Livingstonville, Middleburgh, North Blenheim, Jefferson, 
Mariaville, Delanson, Duanesburg, Schenectady, Rotterdam, 
Burnt Hills, Ballston Spa, Mechanicville, Clifton Park, 
Waterford, Westerlo, Altamont, Berne, Knox, Preston Hollow, 
Albany, Troy, Berlin, Eagle Bridge, Hoosick Falls, Stephentown, 
Hunter, Tannersville, Windham, Prattsville, Catskill, Coxsackie, 
Athens, Cairo, Jefferson Heights, Hudson, New Lebanon, 
Ellenville, Woodstock, West Hurley, West Shokan, Kerhonkson, 
Napanoch, Sundown, Kingston, New Paltz, Poughkeepsie, Beacon, 
Arlington, Pawling, Wingdale, Dover Plains, Millbrook, 
Stanfordville, Pine Plains, Amenia, and Caroga Lake
654 AM EST Sat Feb 19 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...The Mohawk and Schoharie valleys, Capital
  District,Saratoga Region, eastern Catskills, Taconics and mid-
  Hudson Valley in eastern New York, western Massachusetts and 
  northwestern Connecticut.

* WHEN...From 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$
786 
WWUS71 KALY 191815
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
115 PM EST Sat Feb 19 2022

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082-
200300-
/O.CON.KALY.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-220220T0300Z/
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-Montgomery-
Northern Saratoga-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-
Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-
Western Greene-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-
Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-
Northern Fulton-
Including the cities of Torrington, Oakville, Gaylordsville, 
New Milford, Terryville, Thomaston, Dalton, Hancock, Pittsfield, 
Florida, North Adams, Sandisfield, Great Barrington, 
South Egremont, Ilion, Herkimer, Little Falls, Mohawk, Frankfort,
Dolgeville, Gloversville, Johnstown, Amsterdam, Saratoga Lake, 
Saratoga Springs, Cobleskill, Breakabeen, Gilboa, 
Livingstonville, Middleburgh, North Blenheim, Jefferson, 
Mariaville, Delanson, Duanesburg, Schenectady, Rotterdam, 
Burnt Hills, Ballston Spa, Mechanicville, Clifton Park, 
Waterford, Westerlo, Altamont, Berne, Knox, Preston Hollow, 
Albany, Troy, Berlin, Eagle Bridge, Hoosick Falls, Stephentown, 
Hunter, Tannersville, Windham, Prattsville, Catskill, Coxsackie, 
Athens, Cairo, Jefferson Heights, Hudson, New Lebanon, 
Ellenville, Woodstock, West Hurley, West Shokan, Kerhonkson, 
Napanoch, Sundown, Kingston, New Paltz, Poughkeepsie, Beacon, 
Arlington, Pawling, Wingdale, Dover Plains, Millbrook, 
Stanfordville, Pine Plains, Amenia, and Caroga Lake
115 PM EST Sat Feb 19 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...The Mohawk and Schoharie valleys, Capital District,
  Saratoga Region, eastern Catskills, Taconics and mid- Hudson 
  Valley in eastern New York, western Massachusetts and 
  northwestern Connecticut.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$
816 
WWUS71 KALY 200256
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
956 PM EST Sat Feb 19 2022

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082-
200400-
/O.EXP.KALY.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-220220T0300Z/
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-Montgomery-
Northern Saratoga-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-
Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-
Western Greene-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-
Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-
Northern Fulton-
Including the cities of Torrington, Oakville, Gaylordsville, 
New Milford, Terryville, Thomaston, Dalton, Hancock, Pittsfield, 
Florida, North Adams, Sandisfield, Great Barrington, 
South Egremont, Ilion, Herkimer, Little Falls, Mohawk, Frankfort,
Dolgeville, Gloversville, Johnstown, Amsterdam, Saratoga Lake, 
Saratoga Springs, Cobleskill, Breakabeen, Gilboa, 
Livingstonville, Middleburgh, North Blenheim, Jefferson, 
Mariaville, Delanson, Duanesburg, Schenectady, Rotterdam, 
Burnt Hills, Ballston Spa, Mechanicville, Clifton Park, 
Waterford, Westerlo, Altamont, Berne, Knox, Preston Hollow, 
Albany, Troy, Berlin, Eagle Bridge, Hoosick Falls, Stephentown, 
Hunter, Tannersville, Windham, Prattsville, Catskill, Coxsackie, 
Athens, Cairo, Jefferson Heights, Hudson, New Lebanon, 
Ellenville, Woodstock, West Hurley, West Shokan, Kerhonkson, 
Napanoch, Sundown, Kingston, New Paltz, Poughkeepsie, Beacon, 
Arlington, Pawling, Wingdale, Dover Plains, Millbrook, 
Stanfordville, Pine Plains, Amenia, and Caroga Lake
956 PM EST Sat Feb 19 2022

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

The Wind Advisory for the Mohawk and Schoharie valleys, Capital 
District, Saratoga Region, eastern Catskills, Taconics and mid- 
Hudson Valley, Berkshires, and northwestern Connecticut will
expire at 10 pm. Winds will remain brisk and gusty for another 2
to 3 hours then they will weaken overnight. 

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this wind advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Albany, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this wind advisory went out at Feb 18, 1:45 PM EST, 1 hour 45 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 18, 1:45 PM EST, 1 hour 45 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
145 PM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Blustery and colder conditions will continue for the remainder
of the day with just a few lingering flurries across the
Adirondacks and Mohawk and Schoharie valleys. There will still
be some localized river and ice jam flooding potential into this
evening. A fast moving clipper system and cold front will bring
some snow showers and squalls on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Flood Watch remains in effect for the southern Adirondacks,
Mohawk Valley, Schoharie Valley, eastern Catskills, Capital
District, Lake George Saratoga Region, and southern Vermont into
this evening...

.UPDATE...As of 1230 PM EST, in the wake of our storm system,
colder air continues to build into the region with gusty winds
continuing. Wind gusts remain in the 30 to 40 mph range and are
concentrated from the Mohawk Valley to the Schoharie Valley,
Capital District and into the Berkshires. Winds will gradually
subside later this afternoon into this evening but still expect
winds to generally remain below advisory criteria.

Outside of a lingering flurry in some western areas, expect dry
weather under a partly to mostly cloudy sky. Temperatures are
currently in the teens across the Adirondacks to the low to
mid-30s in the mid-Hudson Valley and into northwestern
Connecticut. Temperatures may hold steady for a time before
falling further later this afternoon.

Main focus continues to be any localized river or ice jam
flooding issues. More on this can be found in the hydro section.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mainly dry conditions with much colder temperatures expected
tonight. Lows will range from the single digits in the
Adirondacks and southern Greens to 10s elsewhere. Winds will
decrease further as a surface ridge moves eastward across the
area. However, a fast-moving clipper-type system will already be
approaching from the Great Lakes and may bring some snow
showers to the southern Adirondacks prior to sunrise Saturday.
Most of the area will be dry until after sunrise Saturday into
the afternoon.

On Saturday, the primary surface cyclone associated with the
clipper system looks to track eastward just north of the
NY/Canada border during the day. The associated upper level
trough will dig south into the mid Atlantic region, with
cyclonic vorticity advection occurring across our area. With the
surface cyclone passing by to the north, its attendant cold
front will sweep eastward across the eastern NY and western New
England from late morning through the afternoon. Guidance
indicating good convergence along the front, with a well-
demarcated surface pressure trough. Investigation of forecast
soundings indicate steepening lapse rates up to 650 mb, with
sufficient moisture/forcing to produce a fairly solid line of
snow showers and snow squalls accompanying the frontal passage.
CAMs such as the HRRR and NAMNest in good agreement with this
scenario. Snow squalls look to be linear, so once they move
through the threat should end quickly by late afternoon. Winds
will shift to the W-NW and will become quite gusty due to
increased mixing heights. Gusts of 30-40 mph expected behind the
cold front late Saturday into Saturday evening.

In wake of the surface front and short wave passage, lake
effect snow will likely set up into the western Adirondacks
Saturday afternoon into early evening in the developing westerly
flow regime and Conditional to Moderate lake induced
instability. The flow should turn more northwesterly during the
evening pushing lake effect southward, so residence time will be
a factor in how much snow can accumulate in the western
Adirondacks before shifting south. Will mention potential for
Advisory level accumulations for now in the HWO with 3-6 inches.
Lesser accumulations around 1-3 inches expected for the western
Mohawk Valley as the lake effect shifts south Saturday evening.
Surface ridge builds in quickly Saturday night, with inversion
heights crashing and squelching the lake effect. It will be
another cold night, with lows ranging from just below zero in
the Adirondacks to 10s in the Hudson Valley.

Zonal flow aloft on Sunday, with southerly low level winds
developing as the surface ridge moves eastward off the mid
Atlantic coast. After a cold start to the day, temperatures
should rebound back to near normal levels (upper 20s to upper
30s) during the afternoon with dry conditions persisting.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Long term period will feature an active weather pattern, with a
few chances for precipitation across the area. Temperatures
will be above normal for the first half of the week, with
cooler, more seasonable temperatures for the second half of the
week. Overall, lots of forecast uncertainty, so did not stray
too far from NBM guidance. More details below...

Long term begins Sunday night with zonal flow aloft and a
surface high pressure system moving off the Mid-Atlantic Coast.
At the same time, a surface low pressure system will pass well
to the north of our region through Ontario and Quebec Sunday
night into Monday. The departing high will result in a
tightening pressure gradient across the region Sunday night,
while we will see warm advection with the low track to our
north. This should set the stage for a relatively warm night
(compared to the previous few nights) with temperatures only
dropping into the mid 20s for most areas outside of the high
terrain. A similar pattern continues through the day Monday, as
the syclone's cold front will not have made it to our region
yet. Warm advection should help highs rise into the 50s for the
mid Hudson Valley while our Adirondack zones remain in the upper
30s.

Monday night, the trailing cold front associated with the low
tracking to the north of our region will attempt to move in from
the west, with some help from an arctic high building across
southern Canada beneath confluent flow aloft. However, the first
of multiple southern stream disturbances aloft will track out
of the deep south towards our region, with surface cyclogenesis
taking place somewhere over the middle of the country. Cyclonic
flow around the surface low will attempt to advect warmer air
northwards into our region, and will impede the progress of the
cold front as it tries to drop southwards. Which of these air
masses eventually wins out remains a source of forecast
uncertainty, but at this time guidance suggests that we remain
in the warm airmass for Monday night into Tuesday, with Monday
night lows only in the upper 20s to around 30.

Tuesday, a wave of low pressure associated with the southern
stream disturbance aloft tracks towards our region, which may
result in a widespread precipitation event for our region thanks
to abundant moisture and plenty of forcing for ascent. Over the
past 24 hours, guidance has trended slightly warmer (ie surface
low tracks further to the west of our region) with this system,
which would result in mainly rain for our forecast area.
However, the 1040mb + arctic high to the north most likely will
not be "pushed" out of the way as easily as guidance suggests at
this point. Furthermore, we have seen these setups (southern
stream shortwave moving out of the southeastern US) trend south
and east in the medium range so far this winter. Therefore, will
continue to at least mention there is a chance for some wintry
precipitation, mainly across our northern areas, especially if
this system trends colder. For all of the above reasons,
forecast confidence remains low at this time, but hopefully
details will come into better focus over the coming days.

Guidance actually shows multiple southern stream shortwaves
tracking towards our region, so we may deal with a couple rounds
of rain Tuesday into Wednesday. At this time, best chance for
precip appears to be Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday night,
where we have likely to categorical PoPs. Precip looks to wind
down Wednesday by the afternoon or evening as the last of these
disturbances moves off to the north and east of the region. It
also appears that a cold front will track through the region
Wednesday night or Thursday with surface high pressure
attempting to build in from the west. The CMC has been insistent
on another southern stream wave tracking towards the region
Thursday, while the GFS and Euro do not. Therefore, did not
deviate much from NBM Pops Thursday afternoon and night, with
slight chance PoPs north of I-90 and chance PoPs to the south.
Regardless, all sources of guidance are in agreement that
another weather system may impact our region on Friday, but with
this over a week away it is much too early to get into details
regarding exact timing or precip type.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions in place this afternoon but with continued cold air
advection and moisture contributions from the lake, some MVFR
conditions are possible at PSF.

From 00 UTC to 06 UTC, an enhanced moisture fetch and an upper level
disturbance could result in MVFR ceilings at ALB and PSF along with
some flurries or a snow shower. After 06 UTC, VFR conditions should
return to all sites.

Then, ahead of a period of snow tomorrow morning, OVC ceilings at 6-
8kft overspreading the GFL, ALB, PSF and finally POU terminals from
10 UTC to 13 UTC. Then an area of light snow will overspread the
terminals from 12 UTC to 18 UTC. After a brief break, we will be
closely monitoring snow squalls that could impact the ALB and GFL
terminals mainly from 19 UTC to 21 UTC before reaching POU and PSF
between 20 UTC to 22 UTC. During any snow squall, visibilities could
drop below 1SM for a short period (under 1 hour), ceilings become
MVFR and winds abruptly shift to the west-northwest with gusts to 30-
40mph, strongest at PSF and ALB.

Breezy westerly winds this afternoon are sustained between 10 and
20mph with gusts to 25 - 35mph. Once we lose daytime heating, wind
gusts should subside by 00 - 03 UTC. Sustained winds should then
drop under 5kts by 03 - 06UTC and shift to the south-southeast;
however, south-southeast winds quickly increase again by 09 - 12 UTC
becoming sustained 9-12kts with gusts to 20-25kts. Winds then
abruptly shift to northwest and rapidly increase shortly after 18
UTC when snow squalls push through the terminals.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy. Scattered SHSN.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Washingtons Birthday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Flood Watch remains in effect for the southern Adirondacks,
Mohawk Valley, Schoharie Valley, eastern Catskills, Capital
District, Lake George Saratoga Region, and southern Vermont into
this evening.

In the wake of our storm system, localized river and ice jam
flooding remains possible into this evening. Minor flooding
will continue at Granville on the Mettawee. Most other rivers
are expected to remain below minor flood, though some will rise
or crest at action stage.

Ice jams may still form, allowing for localized flooding into
this evening. The main focus for this potential is along the
rivers in eastern Windham County as well as the Mohawk River in
Schenectady County. No ice jam flooding has been reported at
this time.

River levels should start to recede later today. However, if
any ice jams freeze in place, then issues may still continue
locally into tonight.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Flood Watch until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ032-033-038>043-
     047>054-058-063-082>084.
MA...None.
VT...Flood Watch until 7 PM EST this evening for VTZ013>015.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPV/Rathbun
NEAR TERM...Rathbun
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...Main
AVIATION...Speciale
HYDROLOGY...JPV/Rathbun
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 18, 9:38 AM EST, 5 hours 52 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
938 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ059>061-064>066-191200-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-
Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-
938 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut,
western Massachusetts and the mid-Hudson Valley in eastern New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Snow showers and squalls are likely on Saturday along the passage of
a strong cold front.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058-063-082>084-VTZ013>015-191200-
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-
Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-Northern Washington-
Schoharie-Western Schenectady-Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-
Western Albany-Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-
Western Greene-Western Ulster-Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-
Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
938 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Vermont and eastern
New York except for the mid-Hudson Valley.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Snow showers and squalls are likely on Saturday along the passage of
a strong cold front.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report flooding to the National
Weather Service in Albany New York.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Feb 18, 11:34 AM EST, 3 hours 56 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
1134 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

VTZ015-182200-
Eastern Windham-
1134 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...Potential Flooding Today Due to Ice Jams on Rivers in Eastern
Windham County, Vermont...

Local emergency managers in eastern Windham County, Vermont have
reported ice build-up where the Williams River drains into the
Connecticut River and along the West River just north of Route 30
in Brattleboro. Due to high river flows, water could jam up
behind ice and result in flooding today. The National Weather
Service welcomes any reports of water impacting roads or
properties. Contact us on Facebook, Twitter or
alb.stormreport@noaa.gov.
Special weather statement, Feb 18, 11:52 AM EST, 3 hours 38 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
1152 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

NYZ049-182245-
Eastern Schenectady-
1152 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...Potential Flooding Along the Mohawk River Today in Schenectady
County, NY....

High river flows on the Mohawk River today combined with ice sheets
may result in ice jam flooding, especially between Lock 8 and
Freeman's Bridge in Schenectady. The National Weather Service
appreciates any reports of flooding that is impacting properties or
homes. Contact us on Facebook, Twitter or email us at
alb.stormreport@noaa.gov.

LAT...LON 4283 7398 4282 7397 4283 7394 4282 7393
      4282 7395 4281 7397 4282 7399 4283 7400

CS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Albany, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 17, 9:49 PM ESTRiver Flood WarningALYWashington19 hr
Feb 18, 4:45 AM ESTAreal Flood AdvisoryALYFulton, Herkimer, Montgomery3 hr
Feb 18, 4:57 AM ESTSpecial Weather StatementALYAlbany, Columbia, Dutchess, Greene, Rensselaer, Schenectady and 1 more48 min
Feb 18, 5:06 AM ESTSpecial Weather StatementALYAlbany, Columbia, Dutchess, Greene, Rensselaer, Ulster54 min
Feb 18, 5:09 AM ESTSpecial Weather StatementALYAlbany, Columbia, Dutchess, Greene, Rensselaer, Ulster66 min
Feb 18, 5:13 AM ESTSpecial Weather StatementALYColumbia, Dutchess, Rensselaer, Ulster32 min
Feb 18, 5:19 AM ESTSpecial Weather StatementALYColumbia, Dutchess, Rensselaer, Ulster56 min
Feb 18, 8:19 AM ESTAreal Flood WarningALYMontgomery6 hr
Feb 18, 11:52 AM ESTSpecial Weather StatementALYSchenectady6 hr
Feb 18, 2:26 PM ESTAreal Flood WarningALYHerkimer6 hr
Feb 18, 3:30 PM ESTWinter Weather AdvisoryALYHamilton, Herkimer28 hr
Feb 18, 4:37 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementALYSchenectady4 hr
Feb 18, 6:15 AM ESTSpecial Weather StatementALY45 min

Nearby

Wind Advisories in New York, 2022Wind Advisories in Connecticut, 2022Wind Advisories in Massachusetts, 2022Every wind advisory in 2022

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.