Wind Advisory 1, NWS Albany, NY

280 
WWUS71 KALY 171048
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
548 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-084-
VTZ013>015-172100-
/O.CON.KALY.WI.Y.0001.220218T0300Z-220218T1400Z/
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-Montgomery-
Northern Saratoga-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-
Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-
Western Greene-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-
Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-
Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
Including the cities of Torrington, Oakville, Gaylordsville, 
New Milford, Terryville, Thomaston, Dalton, Hancock, Pittsfield, 
Florida, North Adams, Sandisfield, Great Barrington, 
South Egremont, Ilion, Herkimer, Little Falls, Mohawk, Frankfort,
Dolgeville, Gloversville, Johnstown, Amsterdam, Saratoga Lake, 
Saratoga Springs, Cobleskill, Breakabeen, Gilboa, 
Livingstonville, Middleburgh, North Blenheim, Jefferson, 
Mariaville, Delanson, Duanesburg, Schenectady, Rotterdam, 
Burnt Hills, Ballston Spa, Mechanicville, Clifton Park, 
Waterford, Westerlo, Altamont, Berne, Knox, Preston Hollow, 
Albany, Troy, Berlin, Eagle Bridge, Hoosick Falls, Stephentown, 
Hunter, Tannersville, Windham, Prattsville, Catskill, Coxsackie, 
Athens, Cairo, Jefferson Heights, Hudson, New Lebanon, 
Ellenville, Woodstock, West Hurley, West Shokan, Kerhonkson, 
Napanoch, Sundown, Kingston, New Paltz, Poughkeepsie, Beacon, 
Arlington, Pawling, Wingdale, Dover Plains, Millbrook, 
Stanfordville, Pine Plains, Amenia, Hudson Falls, Fort Edward, 
Cambridge, Greenwich, Middle Falls, North Easton, Stamford, 
Bennington, Woodford State Park, Pownal, Stratton, Londonderry, 
Brattleboro, Guilford Center, West Brattleboro, and Bellows Falls
548 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
9 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...The Mohawk and Schoharie Valleys, eastern Catskills, 
  greater Capital District, Saratoga region, mid Hudson Valley 
  and Taconics of eastern New York, southern Vermont, 
  northwestern Connecticut, and western Massachusetts.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

936 
WWUS71 KALY 171945
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
245 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-084-
VTZ013>015-180400-
/O.CON.KALY.WI.Y.0001.220218T0300Z-220218T1400Z/
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-Montgomery-
Northern Saratoga-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-
Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-
Western Greene-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-
Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-
Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
Including the cities of Torrington, Oakville, Gaylordsville, 
New Milford, Terryville, Thomaston, Dalton, Hancock, Pittsfield, 
Florida, North Adams, Sandisfield, Great Barrington, 
South Egremont, Ilion, Herkimer, Little Falls, Mohawk, Frankfort,
Dolgeville, Gloversville, Johnstown, Amsterdam, Saratoga Lake, 
Saratoga Springs, Cobleskill, Breakabeen, Gilboa, 
Livingstonville, Middleburgh, North Blenheim, Jefferson, 
Mariaville, Delanson, Duanesburg, Schenectady, Rotterdam, 
Burnt Hills, Ballston Spa, Mechanicville, Clifton Park, 
Waterford, Westerlo, Altamont, Berne, Knox, Preston Hollow, 
Albany, Troy, Berlin, Eagle Bridge, Hoosick Falls, Stephentown, 
Hunter, Tannersville, Windham, Prattsville, Catskill, Coxsackie, 
Athens, Cairo, Jefferson Heights, Hudson, New Lebanon, 
Ellenville, Woodstock, West Hurley, West Shokan, Kerhonkson, 
Napanoch, Sundown, Kingston, New Paltz, Poughkeepsie, Beacon, 
Arlington, Pawling, Wingdale, Dover Plains, Millbrook, 
Stanfordville, Pine Plains, Amenia, Hudson Falls, Fort Edward, 
Cambridge, Greenwich, Middle Falls, North Easton, Stamford, 
Bennington, Woodford State Park, Pownal, Stratton, Londonderry, 
Brattleboro, Guilford Center, West Brattleboro, and Bellows Falls
245 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
9 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...The Mohawk and Schoharie Valleys, eastern Catskills, 
  greater Capital District, Saratoga region, mid Hudson Valley 
  and Taconics of eastern New York, southern Vermont, 
  northwestern Connecticut, and western Massachusetts.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

282 
WWUS71 KALY 180329
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
1029 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-084-
VTZ013>015-181100-
/O.CON.KALY.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-220218T1400Z/
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-Montgomery-
Northern Saratoga-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-
Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-
Western Greene-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-
Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-
Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
Including the cities of Torrington, Oakville, Gaylordsville, 
New Milford, Terryville, Thomaston, Dalton, Hancock, Pittsfield, 
Florida, North Adams, Sandisfield, Great Barrington, 
South Egremont, Ilion, Herkimer, Little Falls, Mohawk, Frankfort,
Dolgeville, Gloversville, Johnstown, Amsterdam, Saratoga Lake, 
Saratoga Springs, Cobleskill, Breakabeen, Gilboa, 
Livingstonville, Middleburgh, North Blenheim, Jefferson, 
Mariaville, Delanson, Duanesburg, Schenectady, Rotterdam, 
Burnt Hills, Ballston Spa, Mechanicville, Clifton Park, 
Waterford, Westerlo, Altamont, Berne, Knox, Preston Hollow, 
Albany, Troy, Berlin, Eagle Bridge, Hoosick Falls, Stephentown, 
Hunter, Tannersville, Windham, Prattsville, Catskill, Coxsackie, 
Athens, Cairo, Jefferson Heights, Hudson, New Lebanon, 
Ellenville, Woodstock, West Hurley, West Shokan, Kerhonkson, 
Napanoch, Sundown, Kingston, New Paltz, Poughkeepsie, Beacon, 
Arlington, Pawling, Wingdale, Dover Plains, Millbrook, 
Stanfordville, Pine Plains, Amenia, Hudson Falls, Fort Edward, 
Cambridge, Greenwich, Middle Falls, North Easton, Stamford, 
Bennington, Woodford State Park, Pownal, Stratton, Londonderry, 
Brattleboro, Guilford Center, West Brattleboro, and Bellows Falls
1029 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...The Mohawk and Schoharie Valleys, eastern Catskills, 
  greater Capital District, Saratoga region, mid Hudson Valley 
  and Taconics of eastern New York, southern Vermont, 
  northwestern Connecticut, and western Massachusetts.

* WHEN...Through 9 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

428 
WWUS71 KALY 180834
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
334 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-084-
VTZ013>015-181400-
/O.CON.KALY.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-220218T1400Z/
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-Montgomery-
Northern Saratoga-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-
Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-
Western Greene-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-
Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-
Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
Including the cities of Torrington, Oakville, Gaylordsville, 
New Milford, Terryville, Thomaston, Dalton, Hancock, Pittsfield, 
Florida, North Adams, Sandisfield, Great Barrington, 
South Egremont, Ilion, Herkimer, Little Falls, Mohawk, Frankfort,
Dolgeville, Gloversville, Johnstown, Amsterdam, Saratoga Lake, 
Saratoga Springs, Cobleskill, Breakabeen, Gilboa, 
Livingstonville, Middleburgh, North Blenheim, Jefferson, 
Mariaville, Delanson, Duanesburg, Schenectady, Rotterdam, 
Burnt Hills, Ballston Spa, Mechanicville, Clifton Park, 
Waterford, Westerlo, Altamont, Berne, Knox, Preston Hollow, 
Albany, Troy, Berlin, Eagle Bridge, Hoosick Falls, Stephentown, 
Hunter, Tannersville, Windham, Prattsville, Catskill, Coxsackie, 
Athens, Cairo, Jefferson Heights, Hudson, New Lebanon, 
Ellenville, Woodstock, West Hurley, West Shokan, Kerhonkson, 
Napanoch, Sundown, Kingston, New Paltz, Poughkeepsie, Beacon, 
Arlington, Pawling, Wingdale, Dover Plains, Millbrook, 
Stanfordville, Pine Plains, Amenia, Hudson Falls, Fort Edward, 
Cambridge, Greenwich, Middle Falls, North Easton, Stamford, 
Bennington, Woodford State Park, Pownal, Stratton, Londonderry, 
Brattleboro, Guilford Center, West Brattleboro, and Bellows Falls
334 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...The Mohawk and Schoharie Valleys, eastern Catskills, 
  greater Capital District, Saratoga region, mid Hudson Valley 
  and Taconics of eastern New York, southern Vermont, 
  northwestern Connecticut, and western Massachusetts.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

955 
WWUS71 KALY 181404
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
904 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-084-
VTZ013>015-181515-
/O.EXP.KALY.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-220218T1400Z/
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-Montgomery-
Northern Saratoga-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-
Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-
Western Greene-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-
Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-
Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
Including the cities of Torrington, Oakville, Gaylordsville, 
New Milford, Terryville, Thomaston, Dalton, Hancock, Pittsfield, 
Florida, North Adams, Sandisfield, Great Barrington, 
South Egremont, Ilion, Herkimer, Little Falls, Mohawk, Frankfort,
Dolgeville, Gloversville, Johnstown, Amsterdam, Saratoga Lake, 
Saratoga Springs, Cobleskill, Breakabeen, Gilboa, 
Livingstonville, Middleburgh, North Blenheim, Jefferson, 
Mariaville, Delanson, Duanesburg, Schenectady, Rotterdam, 
Burnt Hills, Ballston Spa, Mechanicville, Clifton Park, 
Waterford, Westerlo, Altamont, Berne, Knox, Preston Hollow, 
Albany, Troy, Berlin, Eagle Bridge, Hoosick Falls, Stephentown, 
Hunter, Tannersville, Windham, Prattsville, Catskill, Coxsackie, 
Athens, Cairo, Jefferson Heights, Hudson, New Lebanon, 
Ellenville, Woodstock, West Hurley, West Shokan, Kerhonkson, 
Napanoch, Sundown, Kingston, New Paltz, Poughkeepsie, Beacon, 
Arlington, Pawling, Wingdale, Dover Plains, Millbrook, 
Stanfordville, Pine Plains, Amenia, Hudson Falls, Fort Edward, 
Cambridge, Greenwich, Middle Falls, North Easton, Stamford, 
Bennington, Woodford State Park, Pownal, Stratton, Londonderry, 
Brattleboro, Guilford Center, West Brattleboro, and Bellows Falls
904 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

The strongest wind gusts have ended across the region. Wind gusts
of 30 to 40 mph will continue into this afternoon but will
generally remain below criteria.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1247 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system will approach from the northwest late tonight
into Thursday, bringing increasing chances for rain, which may
start as a wintry mix late tonight across portions of the
southern Adirondacks. A wave of low pressure will track along
the front Thursday night, bringing steadier rain and some gusty
winds to the region. Rain may change to a wintry mix or snow
before ending Friday morning, with fair but blustery conditions
returning for Friday afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Winter Weather Advisory in effect through 6 AM today for
Hamilton, Warren, northern Fulton, and northern Saratoga
Counties...

.UPDATE...Radar and NYS Mesonet obs indicate scattered precip
with one or two hundredths measuring in parts of the southern
Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley and Saratoga region. Wetbulb effects
have resulted in temperatures cooling into the 32-35F range in
some of the sheltered locations where the spotty precip is
falling. Brief periods sleet or freezing rain may be occurring
in the coldest spots, so will keep the Winter Weather Advisory
going at least for the next few hours. Otherwise, made some
adjustments to overnight temperatures based on current obs.
Areas to the south of Albany are actually cooler (mid 20s to
mid 30s) due to breaks in the clouds and some sheltered areas
with less wind. Fortunately, these areas should not see any
precip overnight. Warmer temps in the upper 30s to mid 40s
occurring where winds are most persistent.

.PREVIOUS[0952]...IR satellite imagery shows that widespread
mid/high level clouds have overtaken the entire region.
Meanwhile, south to southwest winds continue to be gusty for
many areas. NYS Mesonet shows gusty winds for both high terrain
areas and within large north-south valleys. The only areas
currently seeing light winds are within sheltered areas
surrounded by high terrain.

Temps are ranging from the upper 30s to mid 40s for many areas.
Areas that are seeing lighter winds sheltered by the terrain
have fallen into the upper 20s to mid 30s, mainly over the
eastern Catskills and near the Sacandaga Area.

MRMS imagery shows some light showers have started to spread
into the western Adirondacks, although precip is just falling as
plain rain, as temps in this areas are in the mid to upper 30s.
As this precip spreads eastward, some light freezing rain or
sleet could occur as it falls across sheltered areas of the
central and eastern Adirondacks, especially since some of these
areas are currently near freezing. However, this will be fairly
isolated and widespread wet-bulbing of temps down to freezing
isn't expected for a large part of the area, as there simply
won't be enough precip occurring for this to occur. Still, some
pockets of slippery conditions are possible.  Even in areas
where temps are slightly above freezing, low dewpoints and very
cold ground temperatures could still support areas of freezing
rain in these areas on untreated ground surfaces.

Elsewhere, partly to mostly cloudy skies should continue
overnight, with brisk south to southwest winds continuing in
some north/south valleys, and higher terrain of the eastern
Catskills/Schoharie County and extreme southern Herkimer County,
where some gusts of 35-45 mph could occur overnight.

Within the advisory area, where initial low temps may fall into
the lower to mid 30s, temps should gradually rise back into the
mid to upper 30s by daybreak, with temps elsewhere generally
remaining in the mid to upper 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Flood Watch in effect for Schoharie/Albany and Rensselaer
Counties north and west through the southern Adirondacks, and
for southern VT for Thursday afternoon through Friday evening...

Frontal system slowly approaches from the northwest during
Thursday, as a wave of low pressure develops over the lower
Mississippi Valley Thursday morning, and then tracks northeast
into central/northern NYS Thursday night.

Persistent rain is expected across the SW Adirondacks during
Thursday, with periods of moderate rain possible. Farther south
and east, isolated/spotty showers or drizzle will be possible
through early afternoon, before coverage of rain increases from
west to east by late afternoon.

It will be breezy once again, with south to southeast winds
possibly gusting 25-35 mph at times, especially across higher
elevations and some north/south oriented valleys.

For Thursday night, as the developing wave of low pressure
tracks along the approaching boundary, PWAT's > 1 inch and
strengthening forcing should allow for a large area of steady,
moderate to locally heavy rain to develop. There could even be a
few rumbles of thunder, as Showalter Indices dip to around or
slightly below zero C.

South to southwest winds will increase, as a potent low level
jet (H850 southwest winds of 70+ KT) translates across the
region, particularly from Albany and points south and east.
Forecast soundings depict a strong surface/low level inversion
developing once precipitation develops, which should limit how
much wind transfers down to the surface. However, higher terrain
areas of the eastern Catskills, extreme southern Herkimer
County, and especially the central/southern Taconics into the
Berkshires and Litchfield Hills could have gusts to at least
40-50 mph, if not stronger. Wind Advisories may be needed for
these areas. In valleys, gusts of 30-40 mph are most likely.
However, all areas could see stronger wind gusts within any
heavier convective elements, and especially as the actual cold
front tracks through after midnight. In fact, some CAMs suggest
a narrow cold frontal rainband may pass through some areas
south/east of Albany, which could contain locally stronger wind
gusts, and trends will need to be watched for this possibility.

Also, will have to watch for the possibility of shallow, cold
air draining southward into portions of the southern Adirondacks
and upper Hudson Valley (especially Washington County) later
Thursday night, as this could allow for rain to change over to
freezing rain and/or sleet before the main wave of low pressure
passes.

Rain should change to a brief wintry mix and/or snow by daybreak
Friday across the southern Adirondacks, and possibly southern
VT, with perhaps a coating to less than one tenth of an inch of
ice, and coating-2 inches of snow/sleet. Elsewhere, can not rule
out a very brief wintry mix and/or snow Friday morning as far
south and east as the Mohawk Valley/Capital Region and
Berkshires. Precipitation should taper off in most areas by
midday Friday, although could linger in some upslope areas of
the southern Greens/Berkshires, where additional light snowfall
accumulations could occur.

Temps should rise into the mid 40s to lower 50s Thursday
afternoon, and may rise as high as the mid 50s to near 60 in
some areas south/east of Albany Thursday evening, with mainly
30s to lower 40s northern areas. Temps will then fall from
northwest to southeast by daybreak Friday into the teens/20s
north of the Mohawk River and northern portions of the Capital
Region, with mid 30s to lower/mid 40s south and east of the
Capital Region. Temps during Friday may only rise slightly, with
most areas holding steady, or slightly falling during the
afternoon hours with brisk west to northwest winds gusting to
25-35 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Shortwave ridging will lead to a seasonably chilly night Friday
night. On Saturday, deterministic model consensus depicts a vigorous
shortwave trough barreling toward the area, with the attendant
clipper low tracking west to east along the international border.
Enough moisture looks to get entrained into the system to support
snow showers with the highest probabilities northwest of the Capital
District (but possible through most of the CWA). BUFKIT soundings
show very deep mixing and steep low-level lapse rates with nonzero
SBCAPE, so we could see some squalls as well.

For the remainder of the forecast period, zonal midlevel flow will
back with time as ridging over the southeast US and troughing over
the intermountain west. An active southwesterly jet will evolve in
between these features for early to mid next week. Sunday/Monday
appear to be tranquil and progressively warmer as surface to 850 mb
warm advection takes hold and we remain on the warm side of the
burgeoning baroclinic zone. The weather looks to turn more unsettled
for Tue/Wed as shortwave energy ejects across the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes, spawning one or more areas of low pressure in a
corridor from the southern Plains into the Northeast. Good moisture
transport riding up and over the baroclinic zone is shown in the
models, leading to likely PoPs from Tuesday into Tuesday night. At
this time, model consensus favors the local area remaining on the
warm side of the baroclinic zone for the most part supporting rain
as the predominant p-type south of I-90. However, an elongated
Arctic high will be strengthening over southeast Canada, which will
drain cold air southward. Frozen/mixed precip will also be possible
due to the juxtaposition of these features, with highest
probabilities from I-90 northward.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06z Friday...All TAF sites seeing VFR conditions at
this time, which should persist through the next 6 hours. Some
MVFR clouds may develop at POU and PSF after 12z this morning.
Have kept in SCT MVFR clouds at or below 2000 ft as confidence
is not high enough to change prevailing flight category to MVFR
at this time. Otherwise, mainly VFR through mid-late morning,
although clouds will lower and thicken through the morning with
some showers possible at GFL by late morning.

During the afternoon, expecting widespread reductions in
ceilings to visibilities. Chances for showers increase towards
the late afternoon and evening, except at GFL where more
numerous showers are expected through the afternoon. Tomorrow
evening, rain becomes steady, and may increase in intensity
after 3z as a cold front approaches the region from the
northwest. Ceilings will remain MVFR, with some borderline IFR
ceilings possible at GFL and PSF. Visibilities will remain low-
end MVFR, but can't rule out brief reduction to IFR visibilities
in pockets of heavier rain.

Winds will remain out of the south through the end of the TAF
period. Expecting winds to pick up after sunrise to around 10-12
kts with gusts up to 25 kts possible through most of the day
tomorrow. TOmorrow evening and tomorrow night ahead of the cold
front, expecting winds to become quite gusty (gusts in excess of
35 kt possible, especially at ALB and PSF) ahead of the cold
frontal passage. Expecting low-level wind shear to continue at
all terminals through the next 24 hours as well, with winds
mainly from the southwest at 2000 ft ranging from 40 - 50 kts
through much of the day, and increasing to 55-65 kts this
evening ahead of the cold frontal passage.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 31 kts. Definite RA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SLEET.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 34 kts. Chance of SHSN.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 31 kts. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Washingtons Birthday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
*Flood Watch in effect from the Capital District and points
 north from Thursday afternoon through Friday evening*

Temperatures will remain above freezing in most areas through
Thursday evening. With temperatures above freezing, some snow
will begin to melt across the region. Warmest temperatures are
expected on Thursday, which will allow for greatest snowmelt to
occur.

An approaching frontal system will be allowing for a period of
rainfall for late Thursday into Thursday night with 0.50 to 1.50
inches expected (locally up to 2-2.50" in the high terrain of
the Adirondacks). The combination of snowmelt, frozen ground
and rainfall will allow for runoff, leading to rises on rivers
and streams. The rises may allow for some ice breakup and
movement on rivers and streams. Ice jams may form, allowing for
localized flooding from Thursday evening into Friday. Current
river forecasts indicate the best potential for flooding to be
along the Mettawee River (at Middle Granville). However, will
also have to closely monitor the Hoosic River and portions of
the Mohawk River and its adjacent tributaries, which may have
potential ice movement and possible ice jam flooding.

Behind this system, seasonable conditions will return with the
passage of the front to close out the week into the weekend.  This
will allow for runoff to slow down as temperatures drop below
freezing by Friday night and levels should be receding. However,
if any ice jams freeze in place then issues may still continue
locally.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Near-record warmth Thursday...

Record high temperatures for February 17th...
Albany: 60 degrees 1981
Glens Falls: 55 degrees 1981
Poughkeepsie: 60 degrees 1981

Record high minimum temperatures for February 17th...
Albany: 36 degrees in 1984
Glens Falls: 35 degrees in 1984
Poughkeepsie: 39 degrees in 1984

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Flood Watch from this afternoon through Friday evening for
     NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-082>084.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for
     NYZ033-041-042-082-083.
MA...None.
VT...Flood Watch from this afternoon through Friday evening for
     VTZ013>015.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KL/Main
NEAR TERM...Frugis/KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...Thompson
AVIATION...Thompson
HYDROLOGY...Frugis/KL/Main
CLIMATE...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
411 PM EST Wed Feb 16 2022

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ058>061-063>066-171200-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Western Greene-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-
Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-
Eastern Dutchess-
411 PM EST Wed Feb 16 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut,
western Massachusetts and the mid Hudson Valley and eastern Catskills
in east central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Gusty southerly winds are expected Thursday night across the higher
elevations, which may lead to some downed trees and power lines. A
Wind Advisory may be needed across parts of the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NYZ032-038>040-043-047>054-084-VTZ013>015-171200-
Northern Herkimer-Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-Montgomery-
Northern Washington-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany-
Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-Southern Washington-Bennington-
Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
411 PM EST Wed Feb 16 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Mohawk Valley, Capital
District, Schoharie Valley, and Taconics in east central New York,
and southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Gusty southerly winds are expected Thursday night across the higher
elevations, which may lead to some downed trees and power lines. A
Wind Advisory may be needed across parts of the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NYZ033-041-042-082-083-171200-
Hamilton-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-Northern Fulton-
Southeast Warren-
411 PM EST Wed Feb 16 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM
EST THURSDAY...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the southern Adirondacks and
Lake George Saratoga Region in eastern New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Gusty southerly winds are expected Thursday night across the higher
elevations, which may lead to some downed trees and power lines. A
Wind Advisory may be needed across parts of the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report winter precipitation
amounts to the National Weather Service in Albany New York.