Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
453 PM EDT Thu Jul 28 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front will end from
northwest to southeast this evening. Some of the storms may be
severe. Skies will become partly cloudy overnight, with a few
additional showers possible Friday as an upper level disturbance
tracks through the region. High pressure will bring fair
weather, along with seasonable temperatures and less humid
conditions for the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...Thunderstorms have cleared the western Adirondacks and
Mohawk Valley, so the Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been
cancelled for these areas. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 505
remains in effect for the rest of eastern New York, southern
Vermont and western Massachusetts through 8 PM.

Heat Advisory in effect for the mid Hudson Valley through 7 PM...

.PREVIOUS[0350]...We are monitoring convective trends this
afternoon. There is a fairly sizable cluster of showers and
storms across the Adirondacks into parts of the Mohawk Valley
moving east. This activity appears to be associated with a
subtle meso-low, which can been seen when looping the radar
imagery along with a pre- frontal surface trough in central NY.
There is also a trailing line of storms into the western
Catskills, which should also track eastward into the eastern
Catskills, Schoharie Valley and Capital District over the next
1-2 hours. A few storms have recently prompted a few warnings as
of 350 PM. SPC Mesoanalysis indicating significant 0-6 km shear
of 40-50 kt has arrived across our region, so storms will have
the potential to become severe. With steep low level lapse rates
~8 degC/km and strong shear, damaging winds are still expected
to be the main threat. Isolated large hail is possible in the
tallest and most persistent/rotating cores. Transient supercell
structures and bowing segments are likely due to the shear
magnitude. MLCAPE is around 1000-1500 J/Kg, which is sufficient
buoyancy to support severe storms.

The clusters or broken lines of showers and thunderstorms will
generally end from west to east this evening, as forcing
associated with a pre-frontal trough tracks eastward into New
England. Latest CAMs indicating timing of storms exiting
southeast NY and western New England between 8-9 PM.

Short wave ridging will develop overnight, which should allow
for at least partial clearing. Where winds are able to go calm,
there could be some patchy fog developing in favored sheltered
spots. Otherwise, it will be dry and mild with lows ranging from
the mid/upper 50s in the mountains to lower/mid 60s in the
valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Friday will start out dry, with a fast W-SW flow regime aloft
in place. Another short wave will be progressing eastward across
the upper/central Great Lakes during the day. At the surface, a
weak wave of low pressure looks to develop over the mid
Atlantic region along an eastward advancing cold front. This
front and wave may bring some showers (mainly isolated to
scattered) and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm to areas mainly
south of Albany during the afternoon into the evening. Not good
agreement among the model guidance though, as the main question
is how much moisture will return ahead of the approaching short
wave trough. Highest PWATs forecast to be displaced south of our
region. With a strong 150 kt upper level jet directly overhead,
the best forcing should also be south of our region within the
right-entrance region of the jet. Forecast SBCAPE < 300 J/Kg so
no severe weather is expected. High temperatures should be a few
degrees cooler than Thursday, with 80s in the valleys and 70s
in the higher terrain. Dewpoints will be lower as well (mainly
mid 50s to lower 60s).

Any showers should end by around midnight, as the front/wave
move east off the mid Atlantic and southern New England
coastlines. The upper level trough axis will also move through
around this time. Some clouds could linger overnight, with
clearing expected by early Saturday morning.

Saturday looks to be dry with near normal temperatures and
comfortable humidity levels, with a northwest flow regime. Some
patches of clouds may develop in the Adirondacks as a
subtle/weak disturbance moves through in the late morning to
early afternoon. Can't rule out a stray/brief sprinkle, but will
not mention any PoPs in the forecast at this time. Elsewhere
mostly sunny skies should prevail with a northwest breeze
gusting to around 15-20 mph.

Dry/tranquil conditions expected Saturday night with mainly
clear skies and light winds, as surface high pressure moves
directly across the region. Low temperatures look to be slightly
below normal, ranging from the upper 40s in the western
Adirondacks to around 60 in the Hudson Valley from Albany
southward.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Fairly weak, quasi-zonal midlevel flow Sunday/Monday will give
way to increased troughing for Tuesday as a baggy trough
approaches from the west. Weak south/southwest flow at low
levels will promote a seasonably warm airmass with 850 mb temps
advertised in the upper teens. Highs will likely be around 90F
both Mon/Tue in the valleys, but dewpoints are not forecast to
be terribly high. For Tuesday, the weak troughing moves through,
which could touch off some scattered showers and thunderstorms,
especially if it arrives during peak heating. It does not look
like a very strong system at this point with little airmass
change behind it for Wed/Thu. In fact, models hint at midlevel
height rises for Wed/Thu, allowing heat to build again.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18z Fri...Main focus is on thunderstorm potential through
01Z Fri. A few showers have popped up as of 17Z with some brief
downpours possibly reducing vsby to MVFR/IFR. There is a small
chance for a brief isolated thunderstorm at the terminals early this
afternoon. The better chance will come from a complex now working
across central NY as of 17Z. Most likely timeframe for impacts from
TS is mainly between 19-21Z at KGFL, 20-22Z at KALB, and 22-01Z at
KPSF. Impacts include gusty winds in excess of 40 kt, heavy rainfall
reducing vsby to IFR levels, and possibly some hail. TS occurrence
is more uncertain at KPOU so it was omitted, but cannot be ruled out
especially between 22-01Z.

Dewpoints decrease slightly behind the thunderstorms this evening,
but patchy fog will be possible at the typically fog-prone locations
of KGFL/KPSF, especially if those terminals receive rainfall.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected behind the storms this
evening to the end of the TAF period, with few-sct diurnal cu
developing late Friday morning.

Winds will be from the south at around 10 kt gusting to near 20 kt
from early to mid-afternoon, becoming light and variable tonight.
Winds may gust in excess of 40 kt in the vicinity of thunderstorms
from variable directions.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front will end from
northwest to southeast this evening. Some of the storms may be
severe. Skies will become partly cloudy overnight, with a few
additional showers possible Friday as an upper level disturbance
tracks through the region. High pressure will bring fair
weather, along with seasonable temperatures and less humid
conditions for the upcoming weekend.

Relative humidity will increase to maximum values of around 100
percent tonight, decreasing to minimum values between 40 and 50
percent Friday afternoon. RH values will increase to around 90
to 100 percent Friday night.

Winds tonight will become westerly less than 10 mph, increasing
to 10 to 15 mph on Friday. Winds will remain westerly Friday
night with speeds decreasing to less than 10 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue into this evening
before ending. Despite high precipitable water values across the
region (1.25 to 1.75 inches), fast flow aloft should result in
progressive convection and limit locally heavy rainfall. Overall
rainfall amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch will be possible,
although localized amounts will be highly variable. A few
locations could receive around 1 inch or greater. Given recent
dry conditions, soils and rivers should be able to handle this
rainfall. However, localized flooding can not be ruled out
within urban/poor drainage areas, especially should rainfall
rates exceed 1 inch/hour.

A few additional showers are possible Friday afternoon and
evening, mainly for areas south Albany. Rainfall amounts should
generally be around one tenth of an inch or or less.

Dry weather will return over the weekend into early next week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ059-060-064-
     065.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...Thompson
AVIATION...Thompson
FIRE WEATHER...KL/JPV
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
408 PM EDT Thu Jul 28 2022

MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058-061-063-066-082>084-
VTZ013>015-291100-
Northern Berkshire-Southern Berkshire-Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-
Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-
Northern Warren-Northern Washington-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany-
Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-Western Greene-
Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Eastern Dutchess-Northern Fulton-
Southeast Warren-Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-
Eastern Windham-
408 PM EDT Thu Jul 28 2022

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 505 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Massachusetts, eastern
New York excluding the mid Hudson Valley, and southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday, mainly during the
afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested into early this evening.

NYZ059-060-064-065-291100-
Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-
408 PM EDT Thu Jul 28 2022

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 505 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the mid Hudson Valley of
eastern New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday, mainly during the
afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested into early this evening.

CTZ001-013-291100-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-
408 PM EDT Thu Jul 28 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon into
this evening. The greatest hazard from these thunderstorms is
expected to be scattered damaging straight line winds, although a few
instances of large hail and perhaps an isolated tornado are also
possible. In addition, locally heavy downpours will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday, mainly during the
afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed into this evening.

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