Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
528 PM EDT Sun Jul 24 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage through
tonight. The threat for a few severe thunderstorms will occur
into this evening before transitioning to a locally heavy
rainfall threat overnight. A cold front will progress
southeastward across the region on Monday which will bring an
end to the heat and humidity across the region. There will
remain a chance for showers and thunderstorms with the chance
for a few stronger thunderstorms mainly south and east of the
Capital District.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Heat Advisory remains in effect through 8PM today for the
Mohawk, Hudson and Connecticut River Valleys, Taconics, western
Ulster County, northwestern Connecticut and western
Massachusetts.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch now in effect for Herkimer, Hamilton,
Fulton, Montgomery, Schoharie, Albany, Schenectady, Rensselaer,
Greene and Columbia counties until 10pm.

.UPDATE...As of 525 PM EDT, Based on radar trends and
discussion with the Storm Prediction Center and surrounding
offices, we have expanded our Severe Thunderstorm Watch to
include portions of the Capital District and the mid-Hudson
Valley. Instability is increasing across the region with MLCAPE
values increasing to 500-1000 J/kg. Current convection across
central NY has developed a bit farther south than previous
guidance suggests and this could result in some stronger storms
affecting portions of the Capital District into the mid-Hudson
Valley. The severe thunderstorm watch has been expanded as a
result.

Previous Discussion:
Hot and humid weather continues for parts of the area this
afternoon, especially along the Hudson River and into western
New England. Air temperatures in this region are in the upper
80s to mid-90s with heat indices between 95 and 100. Farther
north and west, clouds and some light showers have eased the
heat with temperatures generally in the mid-70s to mid-80s. The
high temperature today at the Albany International Airport
reached 97F this afternoon which breaks the previous record high
set in 1941. We have likely reached the peak heating in all
locations at this time.

We have begun to see an increase in shower activity upstream
across western and central New York associated with an
approaching shortwave trough ahead of the main upper-level
trough still across the Upper Great Lakes. These showers and
thunderstorms have developed across a region with MLCAPE values
in the 500-1500 J/kg range and 0-6km bulk shear values between
30-45 kt. There is less instability and shear as this convection
enters our area, though DCAPE values are on the higher end due
in part to the inverted-v signature in low- levels due to ideal
mixing. All of these parameters can suggest clusters of
multicells into this evening capable of damaging wind gusts
with the current favored areas across the Severe Thunderstorm
Watch area. There may be expansions in the severe watch based on
trends, though there is uncertainty whether storms can maintain
their intensity as they continue to progress to the north and
east.

Activity will increase in coverage through the evening and
continue through the overnight hours as the upper- level forcing
continues to increase with the approach of the upper- level
trough. As daytime heating gets lost, the severe weather threat
will transition to a locally heavy rainfall threat as
precipitable water values increase to 1.50 to 2.00 inches with
warm cloud layer depths above 10kft and tall/skinny CAPE
profiles. More on the hydrological impacts can be found in the
hydro section of the AFD.

Due to the clouds and rainfall, low temperatures will remain on
the muggy side and range from the mid-60s to mid-70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
On Monday, the cold front associated with this system will begin
its southeastward progress across the region which will bring
an end to the relentless heat and humidity from the past several
days. Clouds and showers will likely be ongoing across the
region, especially ahead of the front in the morning. The timing
of the front will favor some heating and destabilization for
areas mainly south and east of the Capital District with MLCAPE
values between 500-1000 J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear values of
45-55 kt. These ingredients should favor additional showers and
thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts. As a result, a
slight risk for severe weather remains for areas south and east
of Albany. It will become breezy in the wake of the front with a
few gusts 25-30 mph possible out of the west.

Temperatures will not be as hot as this weekend with 70s favored
across the higher elevations to the 80s in the valleys. Peak
heat indices look to top out in the lower 90s across the mid-
Hudson Valley only, which would fall short of heat advisory
criteria at this time. When clouds and precipitation begins in
this region will be the determining factor on how high heat
indices can get.

The cold front will push through the entire area by Monday
evening as high pressure builds in from the west. This will
bring a more refreshing air mass with temperatures much closer
to seasonable values and lower humidity levels. Lows both Monday
and Tuesday night will range from the lower 50s to lower 60s
with highs Tuesday in the lower 70s to mid-80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The long term period opens under largely zonal flow aloft ahead
of a large scale upper level trough located over the Upper
Midwest. A shortwave brings precip chances Wednesday night into
Thursday, followed by a second shortwave rotating around the
upper trough with additional precip chances on Friday. Upper
level ridging subsequently builds in for the weekend.

Wednesday begins with largely clear skies, increasing in
coverage through the day ahead of an approaching warm front.
High temperatures remain a few degrees above average with mid to
upper 80s for valley locations and upper 70s to low 80s in
higher terrain. Warm frontal precipitation overspreads the
region in the late afternoon to evening. Low temperatures
Wednesday night only drop into the 60s for most of the region,
except for upper 50s in the highest portions of the Adirondacks,
Catskills, and Greens.

Chance PoPs persist through the day Thursday as a cold frontal
passage follows the earlier warm front. Highs will be a few
degrees warmer than Wednesday, with mid to upper 80s in the
valleys, with occasional low 90s along the Hudson River from
Albany southward, while higher terrain remains in the 70s and
low 80s. The cold frontal passage in the afternoon brings a
chance of thunderstorms, particularly to the southeastern
portion of the forecast area in the mid-Hudson Valley and
southwestern New England. Lows Thursday night again bring mostly
60s to the region except for mid to upper 50s in higher
terrain.

Friday brings another chance for rain, with the best chances
currently over western zones from the Schoharie Valley north to
the southern Adirondacks, with a slight chance of thunder
region-wide in the afternoon. Any precipitation should end by
the evening with dry conditions persisting through the remainder
of the forecast period. Highs Friday will be near normal, with
low 80s for valley locales and 70s in higher terrain. Lows
Friday night look to be cooler than previous nights with
widespread 50s while low 60s will be restricted to the Hudson
Valley from Albany south.

Saturday looks to be a pleasant and dry day with near normal
temperatures in the low 80s for valley locations and upper 70s
at higher elevations. Lows Saturday night also remain near
normal with low 60s in the Hudson Valley and 50s elsewhere.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
All TAF sites are currently seeing VFR conditions, which should
persist through most of the afternoon and evening. Removed any
mention of thunder/showers before 00z this evening as forecast
trends suggest slightly slower progression of convective activity
this evening through tomorrow. Will mention showers/thunder after
00z at GFL and ALB and after 03z at PSF. Expecting VFR ceilings with
visibilities reduced to MVFR in showers and MVFR or lower in
thunderstorms. Chance for showers and thunderstorms continues at GFL
through much of tonight, but most of the shower/thunderstorms
activity should remain northwest of ALB and PSF through 8-10z.
Therefore, VFR conditions should prevail through most of tonight at
POU and PSF. While an isolated shower cannot be ruled out at POU,
believe most shower activity remains north through 12z with
prevailing VFR conditions.

Tomorrow morning, cold front drops southeastwards through the
region. This will bring increased chances for showers to all TAF
sites. Front should track south of GFL by 15z with relatively low
chances for thunder. At ALB and PSF, there will be increased chances
for thunderstorms from mid to late morning with and ahead of the
cold front. At POU an isolated storm cannot be ruled out towards 17-
18z. Did not mention this in the TAF though as current thinking is
most convection remains north of the terminal through the end of the
TAF period.

Winds are around 10-15 kt from the southwest which should continue
through the afternoon. Tonight, winds become more southerly at
around 10 kt, then turn back to the southwest at 10-15 kt tomorrow
morning after sunrise. Behind the cold frontal passage, winds at GFL
and ALB will turn to the northwest with gusts in excess of 20 kt
behind the cold frontal passage late tomorrow morning or early
afternoon. Winds at POU and PSF remain southwesterly as the front
does not look to clear these terminals before 18z. Also, will
mention low-level winds shear this evening and tonight with
southwesterly low-level jet of 35-45 kt moving overhead at 2000 ft.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Temperatures remain hot this afternoon, but slightly cooler
weather is expected tomorrow behind a cold frontal passage.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the region this
evening and tomorrow with the frontal passage, and some storms
could be strong to severe. Rainfall totals will depend on which
areas see thunderstorms. Most areas will receive between a
quarter and three quarters of an inch of rain, with around an
inch expected for the western Mohawk Valley and southern
Adirondacks. Higher rainfall amounts are expected in
thunderstorms.

RH values through this afternoon remain 40 to 50%, then recover
to 90 to 100% tonight. Minimum RH values Monday afternoon will
be between 50 and 60 percent and will recover to 80 to 95%
Monday night.

Winds are from the southwest at 10 to 15 kts with some gusts to
near 20 kts this afternoon. Tonight, winds will be mainly from
the south/southwest at around 10 kts. Tomorrow, winds will
initially be from the southwest at 10-15 kt, but become
west/northwesterly behind the cold frontal passage. Wind gusts
in excess of 25 kt are possible behind the cold front,
especially north and west of the Capital District. Winds Monday
night will diminish to less than 5 kt from the west/northwest.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A cold front tracking towards the region will result in multiple
rounds of showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon through
Monday morning. Warm rain processes and the potential for
training storms will increase concerns for areas of heavy
rainfall, including localized heavy rainfall rates that could
reach 1-2"/hour, with isolated flash flooding possible. In
addition, localized poor drainage, low lying and urbanized
flooding will be possible. However, dry antecedent conditions
should reduce the potential for widespread flooding concerns.

The best potential for training storms and heaviest rainfall looks
to occur tonight for areas mainly north of I-90.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures for July 24

Albany, NY: 96 degrees set in 1941
Glens Falls, NY: 98 degrees set in 1917
Poughkeepsie, NY: 100 degrees set in 1933

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ001-013.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ038>041-043-
     048>050-052>054-059>061-063>066-083-084.
MA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ001-025.
VT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VTZ015.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Rathbun
NEAR TERM...Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...Picard
AVIATION...Main
FIRE WEATHER...Rathbun
HYDROLOGY...Rathbun/Speciale
CLIMATE...ALY Staff

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
652 PM EDT Sun Jul 24 2022

NYZ032-033-038>040-047>049-051>054-058>061-063>066-082-251100-
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-
Montgomery-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-Eastern Schenectady-
Western Albany-Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-
Western Greene-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-
Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-
Northern Fulton-
652 PM EDT Sun Jul 24 2022

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 498 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern New York excluding
Warren, Saratoga and Washington counties.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms on Monday for
areas mainly south and east of Albany. Locally damaging wind gusts
would be the primary threat.

There is also a chance for thunderstorms on Thursday, mainly during
the afternoon and early evening hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ041>043-050-083-084-VTZ013>015-251100-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-
Northern Washington-Southern Saratoga-Southeast Warren-
Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
652 PM EDT Sun Jul 24 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut,
western Massachusetts, southern Vermont and Warren, Saratoga and
Washington counties in eastern New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms through tonight could contain gusty winds
and locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms on Monday for
areas mainly south and east of Albany. Locally damaging wind gusts
would be the primary threat.

There is also a chance for thunderstorms on Thursday, mainly during
the afternoon and early evening hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight and/or Monday.

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