Severe Thunderstorm Warning 24, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
359 PM EDT Mon May 16 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will bring much cooler, less humid and
windy conditions Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
...Severe thunderstorm watch 227 valid through 8 PM....

increasing coverage of thunderstorms over our region this
afternoon with some strong to severe. There have been reports
of damaging winds in central NY in the organized storms where
bow echoes have been tracked on radar. The bow echoes are now
just approaching the eastern Catskills, Schoharie Valley,
Western Mohawk Valley and southern Adirondacks but are showing
some trends of becoming a more shallow line with continued
localized strong and damaging winds.

The increasing coverage of the storms has caused a disruption
of the local environment around many of the storms. Low level
shear seen on NY State Mesonet profilers suggests some weak
speed and directional shear and some of the storms were rotating
but relatively weak rotation, in somewhat rural areas.

Still some CAPE around 1000-2000 j/kg in the Hudson Valley to
parts of western New England ahead of the storms. So, even
though the reflectivity signatures may look like they are
weakening, the low level winds are supporting damaging winds at
the surface as the bow echoes track east. There is a distinct
wind shift at the boundary layer and some upper divergence seen
on the satellite imagery. The storms could strengthen as they
approach the better instability in the Hudson Valley and parts
of western New England, and as the boundary layer wind shift
and increasing boundary layer winds track through. So damaging
winds and some isolated hail is still possible and an isolated
tornado cannot be ruled out as the strong boundary layer wind
shift increases local vorticity within the storms. Locally heavy
rain could cause standing water on some low spots and roadways,
too.

The storms should be long gone before midnight and some
cloudiness should linger with the upper low tracking just north
of the U.S./Canadian border. Winds will be steady from the west
and northwest, gusty at times in some areas as cold advection
spreads east. A few lingering showers could affect the western
Mohawk Valley and southern Adirondacks through daybreak. Lows in
the 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper low and upper cold pool will support isolated to
scattered showers north of I-90 Tuesday and intervals of clods
and sun in most areas. Cold advection continues through Tuesday
with gusty west to northwest winds. Highs in the 60s with some
50s higher terrain and around 70 mid Hudson Valley and NW CT.

Clearing Tuesday night and sunny Wednesday as weak warm
advection begins through the day Wednesday with low level
ridging building over our region. Highs Wednesday in the 60s
with around 70 Hudson Valley from the Capital Region southward
and NW CT, but around 60 higher terrain.

Stronger warm advection Wednesday night into Thursday with weak
upper energy, a little increase in boundary layer flow and
isentropic lift. Not much deep moisture but enough for isolated
to scattered showers toward daybreak Thursday and through the
day Thursday. Highs Thursday in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The extended forecast will features a brief warm up to above normal
temps to close the week and open the weekend, but then a strong cold
front moves through with cooler and drier weather to close the
weekend. High pressure will bring fair weather to open the week with
temps running below normal.

Thu night into Friday...The mid and upper level flow becomes zonal
in the wake of a weak upper level disturbance on Thu.  A weak sfc
high builds in over NY and New England with temps cooling off into
the mid 40s to lower 50s across the region. On Friday, mid and upper
level heights will rise over the eastern CONUS, as a broad mid and
upper level trough moves east of the Rockies across the central and
northern Plains into central Canada.  A warm front lifts north of
the region with a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm over the
western Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley.  Southwest flow will
prevail aloft in the warm advection pattern with H850 temps rising
to +15C to +17C according to the latest GFS and expect temps to rise
above normal with 70s over the higher terrain, and upper 70s to
lower 80s in the valleys.

Fri Night into Sat Night...The heat will briefly on, as a hot air
mass builds in across eastern NY and western New England with H850
temps rising +1 to +2 STDEVs above normal.  The actual H850 temps
increase to +17C to +19C ahead of the approaching cold front. A mild
night is expected Fri night with a prefrontal disturbance possibly
focusing a few isolated showers.  Lows will be in the mid 50s to mid
60s.  A cold front and a prefrontal trough may trigger a few
stronger storms late Sat pm into Sat night. Max temps in the mid 80s
to around 90F are possible in the valleys, with upper 70s to mid 80s
over the higher terrain on Sat. SPC does have the western Mohawk
Valley and southern Adirondacks in the Day 6 of the Days 4 to 8
outlook. The timing of the cold front will be critical for any
stronger storms. We placed a chance of thunderstorms in the I-90
corridor northward Saturday afternoon into the early evening.  We
kept a slight chance of thunderstorms in for Saturday night.
Depending on the degree of cold advection and the cold front
placement lows will fall back into the 50s to lower 60s.

Sunday...The ECMWF/GFS is slower than the WPC guidance bringing the
cold front across the entire area, the flow becomes parallel aloft
and a slower timing with a weak disturbance moving along it is
possible. We kept a chance of showers throughout the day with
seasonable temps in upper 60s to upper 70s across the region with
some cooler readings over the mtns.

Sunday night into Monday...High pressure builds in across the region
in the wake of the cold front.  Cooler and drier weather filters in
with lows in the 40s with a few upper 30s over the western
Adirondacks and some lower 50s in the mid Hudson Valley/NW CT. Highs
Monday look to run below normal with 60s in the valleys, and 50s to
lower 60s over the hills and mtns with the sfc anticylone building
in from the lower OH Valley and Great Lakes Region.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An approaching cold front will bring frontal and pre-frontal
thunderstorms, some of which may be severe, to the region. Showers
may persist overnight before clearing tomorrow.

VFR conditons are currently prevalent at all terminals with
scattered cumulus, but will degrade as prefrontal storms pass SSW-
NNE through the region 18-20Z. The main frontal line of storms
arrives around 20-21Z arriving from west to east, when heavy rain
and IFR vsbys may occur. Showery precipitation may persist behind
the front through to approx. 06Z Tuesday. Otherwise, post-
frontal conditions improve to VFR after 05-06Z Tue.

Winds are currently moderate out of the south ahead of the cold
front. During thunderstorms, winds may increase substantially to 25
kt and could gust much higher, particularly in severe storms. Behind
the front, westerly 10-15 kt winds will gust to 22-26 kt after 06Z
Tue.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Westerly winds will gust 30 to 40 mph on Tuesday...

A strong cold front will bring much cooler, less humid and
windy conditions Tuesday into Wednesday.

Maximum RH values of between 80 and 100 percent tonight. RH
values will decrease to minimum values of around 40 to 55
percent on Tuesday but near 60 percent in the southern
Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley. RH values up to above 70
percent Tuesday night. RH values drop to 20 to 30 percent
Wednesday

Winds today will become westerly tonight behind a cold front
passage and increasing to 5 to 15 mph. Winds on Tuesday will
remain westerly and increase to 10 to 20 mph with gusts of 30 to
40 mph. West to northwest winds will diminish to 15 mph or less
Tuesday night. Winds will be northwest at 15 mph or less
Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A strong cold front will move across the area through this
evening, bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Downpours will occur with thunderstorms and may result in minor
flooding of urban, poor drainage and low lying areas.
Thunderstorms will be moving fairly quickly though, so the
threat of flash flooding is low. Only minor rises may occur on
larger rivers and streams.

Mainly drier, cooler and breezy conditions are then expected
Tuesday into Wednesday behind the cold front. A few showers will
be possible on Tuesday, mainly north of Albany.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Picard
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
405 PM EDT Mon May 16 2022

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-171100-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-
Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-
Northern Washington-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany-
Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-Western Greene-Eastern Greene-
Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-
Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-
Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
405 PM EDT Mon May 16 2022

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 227 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut,
western Massachusetts, east central New York, eastern New York and
southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
256 PM EDT Mon May 16 2022

NYZ033-042-161930-
Hamilton NY-Northern Warren NY-
256 PM EDT Mon May 16 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central
Hamilton and west central Warren Counties through 330 PM EDT...

At 256 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Speculator, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Speculator and Edwards Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
eastern and east central New York.

&&

LAT...LON 4348 7425 4348 7433 4352 7440 4373 7432
      4365 7400
TIME...MOT...LOC 1856Z 209DEG 19KT 4355 7428

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MEM

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