Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
308 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will move across the region
this afternoon before exiting this evening. A few scattered showers
may linger tonight into Tuesday, with highs down closer to normal.
It will be warmer on Wednesday ahead of a strong cold front with
showers and thunderstorms during the evening and overnight. It will
become much cooler with below normal temperatures for the end of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 150 pm, forced ascent is increasing over the local area
downstream of a strong, negatively tilting shortwave trough
punching into western PA, and another approaching eastern Lake
Ontario. This forcing is interacting with deep moisture (PWATs
around 1.5 inches) to produce an area of rain and embedded
thunderstorms across northern and central NY into central PA,
moving east. Clouds have spread east of this area which,
combined with weak midlevel lapse rates, are limiting
instability. However, earlier breaks in the clouds allowed for
some diurnal heating which, combined with the moist airmass, is
resulting in 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE to the east of the area of
the most widespread rainfall. Over the last half hour, we have
seen a couple of cells strengthen along the leading edge of the
stratiform rain, which are strong to borderline severe. We can
expect this trend to continue into the afternoon as the forcing
encounters the better surface-based instability. The cloud cover
is expected to limit the severe threat from being more
widespread, but isolated wind damage and perhaps large hail is
expected in the strongest storms this afternoon and evening,
mainly through 00z (8 pm). We will also see locally heavy
rainfall with this activity through the evening. So far, MRMS-
estimated 1/hr rainfall rates upstream have been mostly 1"/hr or
less, but there is potential for multiple rounds of convection,
especially if activity develops out ahead of the main area of
rain and embedded storms. The threat for heaviest rainfall is
mainly along and north of the Capital District.

Some additional convection is possible late this evening toward
00z approaching from the west along a frontal boundary, but this
activity is expected to weaken upon reaching eastern New York
due to the waning diurnal instability.

Tonight, the deeper moisture is shunted eastward, but additional
shortwave energy diving into the trough will allow it to cut off
over northern NY. The low-level flow becomes more blocked, which
should result in partial clearing in the valleys and skies
remaining mostly cloudy with some lingering showers over the
upwind sides of the higher terrain. Lows will remain rather mild
as the cold advection is delayed, mainly in the mid-50s to low
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The midlevel low will linger over northern New England on
Tuesday with cyclonic flow persisting over the local area. Cloud
cover will be widespread over upwind sections of the higher
terrain, with partly sunny skies elsewhere. Showers will become
more widespread in the late morning into the afternoon as weak
diurnal instability develops, primarily north of Albany closer
to the cold pool, although just about anywhere could see a
passing shower. An isolated storm cannot be ruled out during the
afternoon mainly northeast of Albany.

Height rises build in Tuesday night into early Wednesday,
although clouds may be stubborn to erode over the upwind parts
of the higher terrain. Warm advection will quickly ensue
Wednesday ahead of a strong inbound trough from the Great Lakes,
with highs back a bit above normal mainly in the 70s. A strong
cold front will approach late in the day into the overnight
hours. Severe weather potential will exist along the front,
especially where it passes during the daylight hours. Rather
impressive instability is forecast mainly to our west as an
elevated mixed layer spreads into the region. The severe threat
is more muddled in our area as the front will likely be passing
through mainly at the end of the diurnal cycle. SPC has a
marginal risk for severe thunderstorms over areas northwest of
Albany. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely along the front
Wednesday night, but likely in a weakened form.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold shot is likely for the end of the week into the weekend,
with 500 mb heights of -2 to -3 standard deviations off the
NAEFS. Uncertainty with precipitation potential for Thursday as
a secondary frontal boundary may interact with lingering
moisture to produce some lingering showers. Strong cold air
advection will occur Thursday night into Friday as high pressure
over the western Great Lakes funnels cool air into the region.
Mainly dry weather is expected Friday into the weekend, aside
from some high terrain and/or lake effect showers. Temps will
warm slightly over the weekend, approaching closer to normal by
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A frontal boundary will remain mainly across northern NY and
northern New England this morning before lifting northward. A
cold front and a wave of low pressure will approach from the
west/northwest this afternoon into tonight with showers and
thunderstorms.

Conditions vary from VFR at KALB/KPSF/KPOU to occasional LIFR/IFR
at KGFL with some low stratus. We are expecting some MVFR
stratus/mist to form at KGFL prior to 14Z/Mon. Expecting low
stratus to also form from near KALB/KPSF at MVFR levels, but low
VFR stratus may prevail. We allowed the MVFR layer to dissipate
towards 15Z-17Z/MON if it forms.  KPOU is expected to stay VFR
with mid and high clouds with a high stratus/low mid level deck
in the 5-7 kft AGL range in the late morning into the
afternoon.

In the late morning into the afternoon, a prefrontal trough
ahead of a cold front with a strong upper level disturbance
will approach. Expecting cigs to be low VFR/high MVFR at
KGFL/KALB/KPSF ahead of the initial band of showers and
thunderstorms. A couple of rounds may impact these terminals
between 18Z/MON-00Z/TUE. We tried to used TEMPO groups to time
the onset of low MVFR/IFR conditions with the thunderstorms.
They may reach KGFL first at 18Z-22Z/MON, and KALB-KPSF
19Z-23Z/MON. KPOU best time for any thunderstorms and
convection will be 20Z/MON-00Z/TUE. Expecting MVFR conditions
to linger at KGFL/KALB/KPSF with cigs 1.0-2.5 kft AGL shortly
before and just after 00Z/TUE with some VCSH groups. KPOU we
have rising back up to VFR levels tonight. Some IFR/LIFR stratus
may form at KGFL/KPSF 03Z-06Z/Tue with drizzle or light
showers. KALB may hold at MVFR levels.

The winds will increase from the south to southeast at 5-10 KT
in the late morning into the afternoon. The winds will become
light and variable in direction at 5 KT or less after 00Z/TUE.
Winds will be stronger, and variable in direction in and near
thunderstorms. The variable winds with gusts to 25-30 KT were
used in the TEMPO groups.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue across most of eastern
NY and western New England this afternoon and evening. These
will be most widespread north of the Mid-Hudson Valley and
Litchfield Hills. A seasonably moist airmass with PWATs around
1.5 inches will be in place, and there is potential for multiple
rounds of convection through the day. Urban and poor drainage
flooding and isolated flash flooding is possible where this
happens, with the greatest risk over areas from the I-90
corridor to southern Vermont and points north. Basin average
rainfall along and north of Albany is expected to range from 1
to 2 inches, with locally higher amounts possible.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Thompson
NEAR TERM...Thompson
SHORT TERM...Thompson
LONG TERM...Thompson
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...Thompson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
311 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2022

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ051>054-058>061-063>066-084-VTZ013>015-
201200-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Western Albany-Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-
Eastern Rensselaer-Western Greene-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-
Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-
Eastern Dutchess-Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-
Eastern Windham-
311 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Mid-Hudson Valley, central
and southeast Catskills, Taconics, eastern Capital Region, and
southern Washington County in eastern New York, northwestern
Connecticut, western Massachusetts, and southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening. There is a marginal risk for severe weather, with the main
threat being isolated damaging winds. Locally heavy rainfall is also
possible which could result in urban and poor drainage flooding or an
isolated flash flood, particularly from I-90 to southern Vermont and
points north.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

NYZ032-033-038>043-047>050-082-083-201200-
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-
Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-Northern Washington-
Schoharie-Western Schenectady-Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-
Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-
311 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the southwestern Adirondacks,
Mohawk Valley, Schoharie Valley, Lake George-Saratoga Region, and
Schenectady County in eastern New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening. There is a marginal risk for severe weather, with the main
threat being isolated damaging winds. Locally heavy rainfall is also
possible which could result in urban and poor drainage flooding or an
isolated flash flood, particularly from I-90 to southern Vermont and
points north.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday
afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
352 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0224 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ENE GREENFIELD CENTER 43.14N  73.81W
09/19/2022                   SARATOGA           NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WIRES DOWN ON INTERSECTION OF WILTON RD AND BRIGHAM RD.
            BRIGHAM RD WAS CLOSED DUE TO DOWN WIRES.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY2203880

AJG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
353 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2022

NYZ047-051-058-192030-
Western Greene NY-Schoharie NY-Western Albany NY-
353 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Schoharie County
through 430 PM EDT...

At 352 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Sharon Springs to near Summit to near East
Meredith. Movement was northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Cobleskill, Jefferson, Middleburgh, Gilboa, Summit, Schoharie,
Richmondville, Livingstonville, North Blenheim, Breakabeen, Central
Bridge, Preston-Potter Hollow, Seward, Conesville, Zeh Corners, West
Richmondville, Baird Corners, Warnerville, Gardnersville and Broome
Center.

This includes Interstate 88 between exits 20 and 22.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4262 7463 4274 7466 4276 7433 4236 7421
      4235 7443 4243 7462 4251 7470 4253 7470
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 241DEG 49KT 4279 7464 4253 7460 4240 7478

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
358 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0248 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ENE WILTON            43.18N  73.71W
09/19/2022                   SARATOGA           NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON A TRAILER AT 100 GORDON LANE

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY2203881

AJG