River Flood Warning 22, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
649 AM EDT Fri Apr 8 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will pass east of the region today, with morning
clouds and some showers giving way to some afternoon breaks of
sun. Isolated showers may develop later this afternoon ahead of
an upper level low approaching from the west. As this upper low
approaches, cool and unsettled conditions are expected this
weekend, with some rain and mountain snow showers. Warmer
weather is expected for next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...As of 620 AM EDT, still areas of light rain and drizzle
across much of the region, with greatest concentration generally
along and north of I-90. Expect this light rain and drizzle to
continue for several more hours, decreasing from southwest to
northeast between 8 and 11 AM. Some breaks in the clouds should
develop across portions of the mid Hudson Valley by mid to late
morning as well.

So, with this update, mainly tweaked PoPs according to radar
trends, and temps/dewpoints and wind according to latest NYS
Mesonet and ASOS obs.

Previous discussion follows...

As of 455 AM EDT, heaviest rain has shifted well east of the
region. However, lingering lighter rain and drizzle persist,
especially across the southern Adirondacks, Lake George/Saratoga
region into southern VT. This light rain and drizzle may
continue through around 10 AM this morning, with clouds likely
lingering until around midday for areas near and north of I-90,
while breaks in the clouds develop to the south by around noon.

Drier air and some subsidence should allow for more breaks in
the clouds to develop this afternoon. By late afternoon, there
may be enough shallow surface instability to allow isolated
to scattered showers to develop for areas mainly west of the
Hudson River, especially for higher terrain. There could even be
a rogue thunderstorm across portions of the western Mohawk
Valley and SW Adirondacks.

Otherwise, expect a mild day, with high temps reaching 55-60 for
most valley areas south of Albany, and 50-55 to the north, with
mainly 45-50 across higher terrain of the SW Adirondacks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Strong/compact PV anomaly is expected to lift northeastward
across the region late tonight into Saturday, around eastern
periphery of sprawling upper level low across the Great Lakes.
An area of steady precipitation may accompany this feature,
especially Saturday morning. As this feature tracks into the
upper Hudson Valley and southern VT, there could be enough low
level instability to allow for isolated thunderstorms to
develop. Also, for higher terrain areas of the SW Adirondacks,
mainly above 1800 feet, a burst of snow is possible late tonight
through Saturday morning, which could produce a quick 1-2 inches
of snowfall. Low temps should be in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

This feature should lift northeast of the region Saturday
afternoon, however as the main upper level low opens up, the
approaching cold pool aloft will support additional instability,
allowing for isolated to scattered rain showers to develop in
valleys, and rain/snow showers for higher elevations, Saturday
afternoon and evening. 00Z/HREFs suggest SBCAPE may reach
100-200 J/kg in some areas Saturday afternoon, so can not rule
out isolated thunderstorms as well, and with low WBZ heights,
some small hail could occur within any taller showers/isolated
thunderstorms. Highs Saturday mainly in the 40s and lower 50s,
although temps may fall into the lower/mid 40s in valleys, and
30s for higher terrain, as showers pass through.

Showers should decrease in areal coverage Saturday night, with a
changeover to snow for elevations above 1500 feet. This could
produce additional coatings to up to an inch for some higher
terrain areas. Lows in the 30s for most areas.

The main upper level trough/cold pool will continue traversing
the region Sunday, allowing for diurnal coverage of clouds to
increase, with isolated showers possible, especially across
higher elevations. Some snow/graupel may occur within the
showers for higher elevations above 1800 feet. Highs Sunday in
the 40s and 50s.

Clearing and cool for Sunday night, with lows in the 20s for
northern areas, and 30s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A warming trend is expected during the long term period, with
temperatures above seasonal levels.

A frontal boundary may produce some showers at times Tuesday-
Thursday, although there remains considerable uncertainty
regarding the exact placement of the frontal boundary, which may
tend to oscillate nearby. There could be some thunderstorms as
well, again depending on placement of the frontal boundary, and
timing of any individual upper level disturbances passing
through.

Daytime highs mainly in the 50s Monday, then warming into the
60s for Tuesday-Thursday. However, there could be a period of
significantly warmer temperatures if the aforementioned frontal
boundary lifts north of the region. Overnight lows generally in
the 40s, although some 30s are possible across portions of the
southern Adirondacks.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure centered over southern New England and Long Island
will move northeastward today away from the region. Conditions
will improve today with VFR developing this afternoon along with
cloud cover decreasing. However clouds will be back on the
increase in the evening with showers returning after 06Z as
another boundary and low approach region from west with
conditions lowering to MVFR.

Westerly winds will becoming southerly late in the day with
light and variable to southeast flow developing overnight.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Isolated SHRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A widespread wetting rain will end this morning. Isolated to
scattered showers will be possible this afternoon, with more
widespread showers occurring late tonight into Saturday as
another upper level disturbance approaches.

RH will fall to 45-60 percent this afternoon, then recover to
90-100 percent tonight.

North to northeast winds will shift into the northwest to west
at 5-15 mph later this morning into this afternoon. Winds will
back into the southwest to south at less than 5 mph tonight.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread heavy rainfall occurred yesterday and overnight, with
rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches, except over 4 inches across
portions of the southeast Catskills. This heavy rainfall has led
to minor flooding on several rivers across the eastern
Catskills, and some additional minor flooding in Schoharie
County and portions of the southern Adirondacks. In addition,
the Canajoharie Creek reached moderate FS. Some of these rivers
have crested, or will crest shortly. River levels will remain
high (above action stages) in many areas through today.

Additional showers are expected late tonight into Saturday, with
up to one quarter of an inch possible, highest across the
eastern Catskills, Mohawk Valley and southwest Adirondacks. Some
of this will be in the form of snow for higher elevations.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...Frugis/KL
HYDROLOGY...Frugis/KL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
501 AM EDT Fri Apr 8 2022

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-091100-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-
Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-
Northern Washington-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany-
Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-Western Greene-Eastern Greene-
Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-
Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-
Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
501 AM EDT Fri Apr 8 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut,
western Massachusetts, eastern New York, and for southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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