Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
301 PM EDT Thu Jun 2 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front pushes through the region tonight into Friday.
High pressure returns for the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 255 PM EDT Thursday...

Another hot afternoon for the area, with 18z temps in the low to
mid 90s across much of the area, with upper 70s to mid 80s along
the MD Atlantic coast. Cold front extends from the NY Capital
district back west of the Central/southern Appalachians and
into the Mid-South region. Regional radar analysis showing
numerous clusters of showers and embedded thunderstorms
developing W-NW of the area along pre-frontal lee trough,
currently draped just west of I-95 from SE PA into north central
NC.

CAMs remain in good agreement in weakening some of this shra/tstm
activity with downslope flow limiting areal coverage to a degree
as expected across the piedmont. DCAPE of 800-1200 J/Kg over
the northern tier of the area (1000-1500 southern sections) is
balanced by weak deep layer bulk shear values of 20-30 kt.
Better values of 30-40 kt of 0-6 km shear maximized from
northern VA up into SE PA/S NJ. Thus, still appears best storm
chances remain oriented to our north. However, expectation
remains that as showers and storms push closer to our area in
the next few hours, convection becomes more cold pool-dominant
locally. This will translate to potential for development into
our area, with scattered to numerous t-storms expected (best
chances north of FVX-RIC-SBY line). 20-30 Pop for isolated to
widely sct T-Storms along the NE NC sounds through around
23z/7pm. PoPs will avg 50-70% N and 30-50% S by 00Z/02.

SVR Thunderstorm watch 303 is in effect until 9 pm, essentially
for the area mentioned above. Potential is there for extension
in time or area into Hampton Roads later tonight, again
conditional on progress of developing convective cold pool.
Main threat remains strong/damaging wind gusts (as well as
possible frequent lightning) from any stronger convection.

Ongoing SCT-Numerous SHRAs/tstms through this evening decreases
in coverage/winds down after midnight as cold front lingers
across southern portions of the area overnight. Lows from the
l-m60s N and W to around 70F SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 255 PM EDT Thursday...

Front will drop through the remainder of the local area Fri
morning. Will have a slight to low end chc thunder mention over
SE VA/NE NC. No significant threat of severe anticipated with
meager shear and early morning timing. Otherwise, much cooler
with NNW winds developing post-cold front. Highs in the u70s-
l80s. A cool, pleasant evening is expected on Fri night w/ lows
from the m-u50s W to the l-m60s along the coast.

Front drops well south of the area through the weekend, with a
stellar late Spring weekend expected weatherwise. Forecast highs Saturday are in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with
lower to mid 80s Sunday (upper 70s at the beaches). Forecast
lows Saturday and Sunday mornings are in the in the upper 50s to
mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 255 PM EDT Thursday...

Weather concerns next week are mainly with respect to the
evolution of remnants of PAC T.S. Agatha. This system is
currently meandering near the Yucatan Peninsula and SE Gulf of
Mexico. Latest from NHC this afternoon shows a 90% chance of
tropical development over the Atlantic Basin in the next day or
so, with the system likely to be renamed Alex in relatively
short order. For what it's worth the 12z/2 GFS has trended
toward the stronger/coastward ECMWF solution, but is still
more elongated and weaker. As always please refer to NHC
products with respect to this system.

Outside of any influence of Alex, nee Agatha, Upper flow
becomes quasi-zonal over the eastern CONUS for the first half
of next week in response to weak ridging building over the
plains. Temperatures which begin the period near to slightly
below normal, gradually warm back near or above climo values
through next work week with steadily rising thicknesses. After
a dry weekend and early next week, PoPs return with approaching
front by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1205 PM EDT Thursday...

After some morning stratus with backdoor cold front at SBY,
VFR conditions have returned, with VFR conditions expected
across area terminals this afternoon. A cold front approaches
from the W-NW late today. Increasing coverage of SHRAs/tstms are
expected late this afternoon and through this evening. Won't
rule out ISOLD tstms INVOF any seabreeze boundaries (ORF- ECG)
late this afternoon...much of the convection is expected to be
after 20Z/02 through ~04z/03. Short-lived MVFR cigs/vsbys and
VRB wind gusts are possible in/near any of these storms.

Areal coverage diminishes after midnight though at least ISOLD
SHRAs/tstms could linger into Fri morning PHF-ORF-ECG. High
pressure rebuilds over the area this weekend, with VFR
conditions expected Sat-Mon.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 255 PM EDT Thursday...

Sub-SCA conditions continue through much of tonight as a cold front
gradually approaches the waters from the NW. Winds are generally S-
SW at 5-10 kt this aftn with 1 ft waves/2 ft seas. Scattered strong
to severe tstms are expected this evening, which will likely
necessitate SMWs. Gusts to ~50 kt are possible in the strongest
storms. The greatest chc for strong-severe tstms is across the mid-
upper bay and nrn coastal waters, where a Severe Tstm Watch is in
effect through 01z/9 PM. That front will slowly push S and E of the
local waters later tonight through Fri AM. Winds turn to the NNW
then N Fri AM following the FROPA. Winds increase to around 15 knots
(15-20 kt across the mid-upper Ches Bay) for a brief period Friday
morning before diminishing to 10-15 kt Friday afternoon. Local wind
probabilities continue to only show a 30-60% chance of 18 kt winds
in areas of the bay N of New Pt Comfort (from roughly 6 AM-noon
Friday). Therefore, will keep the Small Craft Advisory for the
northern Chesapeake Bay zone, but will not expand it S of Windmill
Point, VA. 1-2 ft waves/2-3 ft seas are expected through today, with
2-3 ft waves/~3 ft seas by midday Fri.

High pressure builds over the waters from Fri aftn-Sun AM with sub-
SCA conditions expected. A subtropical disturbance potentially
passes well offshore later Sunday into Monday, bringing the
potential for SCA conditions across the coastal waters (especially S
of Cape Charles) due to 5 ft+ seas. Winds turn onshore with speeds
around 15 kt by Sunday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 1 PM EDT Friday for ANZ630.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...ALB/MAM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...ERI

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