Gale Warning 5, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
259 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build down into the region today. A potent
storm system will track from the Gulf coast states, northeast
and across the local area Sunday into early Monday morning. High
pressure will return for Monday night into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1145 AM EST Saturday...

Sfc high pressure was centered over SE Canada at midday, ridging
south into the Mid-Atlantic region. Mod to high clouds slowly on
the increase as expected late this morning and expect that trend
to continue through the afternoon. Minor changes were made
for drier air advecting into the region this aftn. Highs range
from the upper 20s to lower 30s NNE to the upper 30s/near 40
south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1145 AM EST Saturday...

Added VA piedmont to WS Warning. Have kept RIC metro western
sections in watch for right now. Overall, latest soundings
continue to indicate snow coming in quickly late morning into
early afternoon over the RIC metro, with a progression to rain
and sleet by mid afternoon. Concern is that the RIC metro will
not quite make it to WSW criteria, where the piedmont likely
will with SN/sleet/FZRA combination. Close call, especially
with probable narrow deformation zones modeled pivoting across
the region tomorrow aftn before changeover. We will be re-
evaluating over the next 90 minutes and will have an updated
hazard map by 19-20z.

Previous discussion follows...

	As of 435 AM EST Saturday...

All eyes then turn to an upper trough and sfc low pressure over
the lower MS Valley and Gulf coast states tonight. The sfc low
pressure system will move ENE across the Gulf coast states,
spreading pcpn north and east into/through the TN valley and the
Carolinas by Sun morning. Models are in generally agreement in
lifting this low across the SE Sun morning into Sun aftn, with
the shortwave lifting across the Mid Atlc region during Sun.
Secondary ("Miller B") cyclogenesis then allows a sfc low to
develop along the Carolina coastal plain by early Sun aftn,
which then tracks north through the local area late Sun into
Sun night.

Overall, forecast confidence is slowly improving, as model
guidance is seemingly coalescing on a low track along or just
east of I-95 during this time period (although we should note
that deterministic GFS/ECMWF remain on the west side of their
respective ensemble mean). The low track is obviously crucial,
and some lingering uncertainty remains with the exact low
track, and timing out the overall p-type progression. As best
lift/omega lifts across the region ahead of the system, we are
still anticipating a strong bump of WAA-induced snows will
occur away from the immediate coast late Sun morning into Sun
aftn, with a gradual progression to rain/sleet/freezing rain
from ESE to NNW as onshore flow encroaches inland.

Snow amounts will likely be held down to some degree by freezing
rain (SW zones) and sleet (mainly NW), but average 3-5" in the
US-15 corridor. RIC metro back in the 1-3" range (highest
points for the RIC west end/W Henrico area) with little or
nothing after snow at the onset along the coast. On top of that,
a mixture of freezing rain/sleet/snow is likely over inland
sections across our piedmont. Expect freezing rain will be more
of an issue south of the Farmville area, with more sleet north.

As far as headlines go, have gone with a Winter Storm Warning
for Western Louisa and Fluvanna for now, based on total snow
accumulations of 3-5 inches expected along with ice
accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. Have left the
remainder of the Winter Storm Watch area in effect for now, with
total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, with locally up to 4
inches, and ice accumulations up to one tenth of an inch or less
possible. Again, while duration of snow is not anticipated to
be an issue, we're wary of strong FGen band modeled to pivot
through the metro just after 18z/Sun which could well yield a
quick 1-3" in the RIC area, before the warm nose encroaches
inland and turns over to rain/sleet. This progression will
obviously take longer inland, hence the higher totals.

Next, a Wind Advisory is likely to be needed over our coastal
areas, including Hampton Roads/N OBX and OCMD areas for late
Sun aftn into Sun night. Wind gusts to 50 mph are possible in
these areas. Storm system will lift north of the area Sun
night, with pcpn ending or tapering off as a little snow/sleet
or rain shower. Lows Sun night will range from upper 20s to near
40. Other than an isolated rain shower across the north Mon aftn
into Mon evening, expect dry weather for Mon and esply Mon
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 PM EST Saturday...

Temperatures will be warming up for the middle of the week as
the upper-level trough moves east over the northern Atlantic
Ocean, and as a second trough dives south across the Midwest. A
broad are of high pressure is forecasted to move over the
eastern US midweek. Low temperatures on Tuesday morning will
range from the upper teens in the VA Piedmont to near 30F along
the coast. Wednesday will be warmer under partly sunny skies.
Highs will likely range from mid 40s to mid 50s.

Cold front will be approaching the area from the west Wednesday
night as a trough dives farther south and east. Rain chances
increase on Thursday as the front moves across the region.
Arctic high pressure, that has origins in eastern Russia, will
be building in to much of the US following the cold front. With
this arctic airmass moving in quick behind the front, there is a
chance that the precip on the backside of the cold front
transitions to a brief period of snow.

Temperatures will likely be well below average for the end of
the week and weekend. Low temperatures Friday morning will be in
the teens and 20s, with high temperatures in the upper 20s to
low 30s. Some models are showing a shortwave trough tracking
across NC and southern VA. This will give us a chance of snow
Friday. With such an arctic airmass over the region, it will
likely be all snow for the entire area if precip does occur.

Saturday might will be the coldest night in the long term
forecast period. Low temperatures will be in the low teens
inland to mid 20s along the coast. Latest model runs are showing
a coast storm developing over the Outer Banks. This may bring
snow back into the region if it develops close enough to the
coast.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 PM EST Saturday...

VFR conditions will continue through early Sunday morning. High
clouds over the area now will move offshore with a period of SKC
overnight, before clouds move back over the region. Conditions
will deteriorate late Sunday morning from southwest to
northeast. There will likely be a band of snow before 18z
Sunday move over most of our terminal, except KSBY. Any snow at
KECG, KORF, and KPHF will quickly transition to all rain. CIGs
will be lower below MVFR levels late Sunday morning. Visibility
will be reduces as snow and rain moves in. Easterly winds will
be increasing tomorrow as well, especially for terminals near
the coast. Winds will be E 10-20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt.

Outlook: MVFR/IFR conditions are likely Sun aftn into Sun
night, with strong gusty winds expected to develop during that
same period. Mainly VFR conditions return for Mon into Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 AM EST Saturday...

One system departs to the NE today with anther potent systm poised
to cross the area Sun/Sun nite before pulling away to the NE Mon.
In the interim, weak high pres builds across the area today. Given
this synoptic setup, the headlines get rather complicated over the
next svrl days.

First off, replaced last nites gales with SCA's given that the
strongest gusts have diminished as the ocean low pulls farther away
from the rgn. Given the elevated seas, extended the SCA across the
coastal waters up until the next gale headline begins (21Z Sun).
Will carry SCA's for the Ches Bay/Currituck Sound today, expecting
these to drop off by late aftrn. Appears the ern VA rivers remain
below SCA levels today.

Attn then turns to the dvlpng systm across the deep south tonite
progged to rapidly deepen as it lifts NNE across the Mid Atlntc rgn
Sun/Sun nite before moving into New England Mon.

NE winds become E-SE Sun eve and rapidly increase to 25-35 knots
with gusts of 40-45 knots as this systm tracks across the area. Wind
probs show a period of very strong gales to potentially a few storm
force gusts from 21z Sun-06z Mon. As a result, gale watches remain
in effect for all waters beginning late Sun aftrn thru Mon. Winds
turn W/SW early Mon morn thru Mon aftrn as the low pulls off to the
north, but deep mixing keeps gale force gusts going thru the day.
Winds diminish later Mon into Tues as high pressure builds into the
local area.

Seas rapidly build (due to the onshore flow) to btwn 10-15 ft late
Sun aftrn/eve, then remain elevated into Mon. High surf advsrys will
likely be needed starting late Sun across the srn waters, spreading
north along the Delmarva beaches Sun nite as near shore waves build
to 8 ft or higher due to the strong onshore winds. Nearshore waves
subside Mon as the flow turns offshore. Waves in the Bay will also
rapidly build, especially across the Lower Bay, where 5-7 ft waves
will be possible Sun eve.

Conditions improve by mid week as high pres builds into the area.
However, seas may take a while to drop below 5 ft Tue.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 515 AM EST Saturday...

Strong low pressure will approach and pass through the area Sun eve
into Mon. As a result, onshore (E-SE) flow will rapidly increase
late Sun afternoon into Sun night, leading to minor and possibly
moderate tidal flooding. Best time and area for any moderate flooding
will be Sun nite's high tide cycle across the middle Ches Bay where
strong/gusty onshore winds will likely pile up the water before
turning SW Mon morning. A coastal flood watch may be needed for
those areas. Otw, coastal flood advsrys will likely be needed
for minor flooding.

Waters levels likely rapidly diminish by Mon morning as the low
pulls away and winds become offshore. In addition to tidal flooding,
high surf advisories will likely also be needed starting late Sun
as seas build to 10 to 15 feet. Rough surf may result in instances
of beach erosion and dune overwash.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday evening through Monday
     afternoon for MDZ021>023.
     High Surf Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday for
     MDZ025.
     Wind Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday for MDZ024-
     025.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 6 PM EST Sunday for
     NCZ012-013-030.
     Wind Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday for
     NCZ015>017-102.
     High Surf Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday for
     NCZ102.
VA...Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 5 AM EST Monday for
     VAZ048-509.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 6 PM EST Sunday for
     VAZ089-090-092.
     Wind Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday for VAZ077-
     078-084>086-523-525.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday evening through late Sunday
     night for VAZ075-077-078-084>086-090-523.
     Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for
     VAZ060>062-065>069-510.
     Wind Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday for VAZ095-
     098.
     High Surf Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday for
     VAZ098.
     High Surf Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday for
     VAZ099-100.
     Wind Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday for VAZ099-
     100.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to midnight EST
     Sunday night for VAZ075-076-079>083-087-088-512-514-
     516>522.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 5 AM EST Monday
     for VAZ064-511-513-515.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening for
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Sunday for ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.
     Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for
     ANZ635>638.
     Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for
     ANZ630>634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     ANZ630>634.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...MAM/TMG
SHORT TERM...AJZ/TMG
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...CP/TMG
MARINE...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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