Flash Flood Warning 26, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
334 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front north of the region will gradually move south of
the local area by Thursday night, bringing widespread showers
and thunderstorms. Behind the front, high pressure will build
across the region for the weekend bringing cooler temperatures
and much less humidity.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 315 PM EDT Wednesday...

Thunderstorm coverage has rapidly increased since 1pm,
especially along and north of US-460 where there is a weak
surface boundary with pooling of dew points in the upper 70s
and lower 80s leading to SBCAPE values of 3500-4500 J/KG. Storms
are not moving much at all given the very weak flow aloft and
MBE vectors less than 10 kt. In addition, the anvil level flow
is actually out of the SE. As such, will maintain the flood
watch for the same general area along/north of US-460 through
this evening. Thought about including the eastern shore in the
flood watch, but given that this area has seen less rain in
recent weeks, have opted to hold off. In addition, with the high
instability values mentioned above as well as the Precipitable
water values above 2 inches, there is a potential for brief wet
microbursts from precip loading with any sustained updraft
despite the effective shear less than 20 kt. Overall, think this
threat is also focused along/north of US-460.

The actual front will struggle to move south tonight. The better
push southward will occur tomorrow. In fact, by 12z tomorrow morning
the front will still be north of the area. As such, although the
intensity and coverage of the convection will diminish, cannot
rule out showers tonight into tomorrow morning across the
northern half of the area. As such, will maintain a chance of
showers mainly north of I-64 through sunrise.

One more muggy night with lows remaining in the low-mid 70s,
although Louisa may see upper 60s.

 &&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Wednesday...

The front finally starts to move southward on Thursday as the strong
upper trough (-2 sigma) over the upper Great Lakes dives southward.
Still, the front will take it's time clearing the area, likely not
moving south of the area until Thursday night. As such, expect
another round of showers and storms to develop along the front Thu
afternoon especially southern VA and NE NC. Will go with likely
pops for this area Thu afternoon with chance pops thu evening.

Once this front moves south of the area Thu night, expect
significantly cooler temps and much lower humidity starting Friday
and continuing through the weekend as a strong upper trough persists
across the east coast. In fact, it will seem like an early taste of
Autumn. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s, with lows in the upper
50s inland to upper 60s close to the coast. It will be dry as well
under partly to mostly sunny skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Wednesday...

Expect below normal temps to continue into the middle of next week
with the upper trough persisting across the area. In fact,
there are hints from the GFS that the upper trough will close
off over the Middle Atlantic through the middle of next week,
which will keep chances for showers and thunderstorms right
through the early part of the week. The best chances for precip
will likely be Sun night into Monday as the upper trough
approaches and another cold front passes through the region.

Highs will stay in the low-mid 80s right through Wednesday with lows
in the low-mid 60s. With the upper trough overhead and potential
cloud cover, would not be shocked to see Monday stay in the 70s all
day.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 250 PM EDT Wednesday...

Numerous thunderstorms expected across the region into this
evening ahead of a cold front. Some of the storms will briefly
allow vsbys to be reduced to IFR or lower with gusts to 30-40kt.
Thunderstorms diminish tonight, but scattered showers will
persist at times especially at SBY and RIC where they will be
closer to the front. Additional showers and storms on Thursday
as the front finally moves through the area. Generally light
winds outside of storms today will become southwest at 10 kt on
Thursday.

Outlook: VFR conditions expected Friday through the weekend
with high pressure building across the area.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 320 PM EDT Wednesday...

A shortwave continues to push into the area through tonight. As a
result, scattered storms have developed and will continue to
increase in coverage through early tonight before slowly
dissipating. These storms could produce frequent lightning and gusty
winds. Outside of convection, winds this afternoon were E 5-10 kt
across the Ches Bay, SE 5-10 kt across the northern coastal waters,
and S/SSW 10-15 kt across the southern coastal waters. Expect winds
to become W/WSW 10-15 kt this evening through tonight. The initial
cold front pushes through Thurs with winds becoming NW 5-10 kt.
Winds become WNW/W Thurs evening before the secondary cold front
pushes through Thurs night into Fri morning. This secondary front
will have stronger CAA with it as cooler dewpoints filter into the
region. SCAs will likely be needed late Thurs night into Fri as
winds become N 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. However, given that it
is the end of the 4th period and wind probs are not very excited
yet, will hold off for this update cycle and allow the mid shift to
reevaluate. Winds remain N 10-15 kt through Sat afternoon before
high pressure moves into the region and winds become light Sat night
and Sun.

Waves and seas remain 1-2 ft and 2-3 ft respectively through Thurs
night before building to 2-3 ft everywhere late Thurs night into Fri
night (perhaps 3-4 ft across the northern coastal waters). The rip
current risk will be low Thurs and Fri.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ013>017-
     030>032.
VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048-061-062-
     064-068-069-075>078-080>086-088>090-092-093-095>098-
     509>525.
     Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ048-060>062-064-
     067>069-075>078-080>086-088>090-092-093-095>098-509>525.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MRD
NEAR TERM...MRD
SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...RMM

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