Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
719 AM EDT Thu Mar 24 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through this afternoon into this evening,
with showers and isolated storms possible ahead of it. Cooler
and mainly dry weather is expected this weekend apart from a few
isolated showers Saturday. Cool weather continues into early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 715 AM EDT Thursday...

The latest WX analysis reveals an occluded sfc low centered over the
Upper Great Lakes which will gradually move NE through the day. A
warm front has lifted north of the local area with lower to mid 60s
dews N and mid to upper 60s dews S. The exception is the far NW
Piedmont where the CAD has come south and temps are in the
lower 50s early this morning. The associated cold front from the
low is N/S oriented across WV and the far SW corner of VA. This
cold front will gradually move E through the day. Temps as of
700 AM ranged from the mid 60s N and upper 60s S. Highs today in
the mid 60s NW to the lower 70s SE. Lows tonight in the mid 40s
W and lower to mid 50s E.

Showers/storms continue to increase in coverage this morning
and will linger through the afternoon before gradually ending
from W to E late this afternoon into this evening. Showers may
linger near the coast through much of tonight before dissipating
before sunrise Fri.

PWs are generally 1.4-1.6" across most of the FA, increasing to 1.6"
across SE VA, NE NC, and the Eastern Shore later this morning. This
is very anomalous. In fact, the 00Z/24 WAL sounding reported an
observed value of 1.43", representing a daily record value with a
new daily record expected for the 12z WAL sounding. Thus, will need
to watch for locally heavy rain today, especially in areas of
training showers/storms. Additional QPF of <0.25" NW of RIC and 0.5-
1" SE of RIC expected today with locally heavier rainfall possible.

Early morning mesoanalysis depicts MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg over
SE VA/NC as well as 45-55 kt of effective bulk shear. CAMs
continue support quick shower/storm development this morning
(likely ramping up over the next few hours) given the favorable
instability/shear and upper level support of a strong trough
approaching the region today. SPC has maintained a marginal risk
for a few strong to perhaps severe storms primarily this
morning with the main threat being strong winds from aloft being
brought to the sfc. CAPE is expected to be maximized early this
morning, diminishing to <= 500 J/kg later this morning through
the remainder of the day after showers/storms develop and the
associated cold pool stabilizes the lower levels with an
inherent diminishing of any severe threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EDT Thursday...

Mainly dry weather expected Fri through the weekend apart from a few
isolated showers possible Sat as a strong shortwave pushes through
the region. A cooling trend is also expected with the coldest night
being Sun night when subfreezing temps are expected across most of
the FA except the immediate coastline.

Highs in the lower 60s NW to the mid to upper 60s SE Fri, mid to
upper 50s NW to the lower 60s SE Sat, and lower 50s N to mid to
upper 50s S Sun. Lows in the lower 40s W to mid to upper 40s along
the coast Fri night, lower 30s NW to the upper 30s to around 40F SE
Sat night, and mid to upper 20s NW to the lower 30s SE Sun
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 410 AM EDT Thursday...

Cooler weather continues Mon and Tues with highs in the mid 40s NE
to mid 50s SW Mon and upper 40s to around 50F NE to mid 50s SW Tues.
Another subfreezing night possible Mon night with lows in the upper
20s N to lower to mid 30s S. NW flow dominates this period with an
elongates shortwave perhaps providing enough lift for isolated cold
showers Tues and Wed, although confidence is low at this time. NBM
hints at additional shower chances Thurs but this is due in large
part due to the EURO which is faster than the GFS/Canadian for
additional late weeks shower chances. A warming trend is expected
late week with highs in the lower 60s NE to lower 70s SW Wed and
upper 60s NE to mid to upper 70s S Thurs. Lows in the mid 30s N to
upper 30s to around 40F S Tues night and mid to upper 40s N to lower
to mid 50s S Wed night.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 715 AM EDT Thursday...

Expect CIGs to remain primarily MVFR through the day except at
SBY where CIGs are expected to remain IFR through the day,
becoming IFR/LIFR Thurs evening before improving overnight Thurs
night. IFR CIGs in the NW Piedmont improve to MVFR later this
morning. This evening, CIGs along the coast (including
ORF/ECG/PHF) drop to IFR before improving to MVFR/VFR through
Thurs night. Showers redevelop and increase in coverage today
generally E of I-95 with the greatest chance near the coast.
Isolated storms will also be possible through the day. Showers
taper off from W to E this afternoon/evening as the cold front
pushes through. Winds remain generally S ~10 kt today close to
the coast (5-10 kt inland). Winds become W 5-10 kt tonight
behind the cold front with CIGs improving overnight as drier air
moves in.

Outlook: Dry with VFR conditions Fri. An upper level trough
dives across the region Sat and Sun, but still mainly VFR
through the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 155 AM Thursday...

Ongoing WAA and S winds 15-25 kt across the local waters. SCAs
up for all but the VA Rivers (excluding the lower James). Waves
building to 2-4 ft with seas building to 4-6 ft early this
morning.

An initial cold front will slowly push into the FA today...but
the front will be weakening. Strong winds aloft will push off
the coast so S winds will likely decrease shifting to SW
late today/tonight. Seas linger AOA 5 ft through early Fri
morning (esp N of Cape Charles VA).

For Fri through the weekend...developing trough aloft across the ern
CONUS will lead to a pair of cold fronts pushing through the
mid-Atlantic region. Each of these boundaries will reinforce
relatively strong CAA and increased WNW winds. This will likely
lead to an extended period of SCA conditions...esp from late
Sat into Mon.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ656-
     658.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...ALB/JDM

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