Winter Storm Warning 13, NWS Juneau, AK

986 
WWAK47 PAJK 110745
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1045 PM AKST Sat Dec 10 2022


AKZ317-111600-
/O.CON.PAJK.WS.W.0013.221212T0000Z-221212T1500Z/
City and Borough of Yakutat-
Including the city of Yakutat
1045 PM AKST Sat Dec 10 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO
6 AM AKST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 
  12 inches with a rapid transition to rain on Monday morning as 
  winds gusts as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...City and Borough of Yakutat.

* WHEN...From 3 PM Sunday to 6 AM AKST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Rain on top of heavy 
  snow will be difficult to manage.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

AKZ318>322-325-111600-
/O.CON.PAJK.WS.A.0011.221212T0600Z-221213T0600Z/
Municipality of Skagway-Haines Borough and Klukwan-Glacier Bay-
Eastern Chichagof Island-Cape Fairweather to Lisianski Strait-
City and Borough of Juneau-
Including the cities of Skagway, White Pass, Haines, Gustavus, 
Hoonah, Tenakee Springs, Elfin Cove, Pelican, and Juneau
1045 PM AKST Sat Dec 10 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow with total accumulations of 6 to 12 inches 
  possible. Amounts will vary across the watch area as 
  temperatures warm through the day Monday. Some locations will 
  begin mixing with rain by the afternoon. The heaviest snow 
  rates will be from Monday morning into the early afternoon 
  hours.

* WHERE...The northern inner channels, to include Skagway, 
  Haines, Gustavus, Hoonah, Tenakee Springs, Elfin Cove, Pelican 
  and Juneau.

* WHEN...From Sunday evening through Monday evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact Monday morning commute.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare for possible heavy snow early. Continue to monitor the
latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/juneau

826 
WWAK47 PAJK 111551
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
651 AM AKST Sun Dec 11 2022

AKZ317-120000-
/O.CON.PAJK.WS.W.0013.221212T0000Z-221212T1500Z/
City and Borough of Yakutat-
Including the city of Yakutat
651 AM AKST Sun Dec 11 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 6 AM AKST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 12
  inches.

* WHERE...City and Borough of Yakutat.

* WHEN...From 3 PM Sunday to 6 AM AKST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Rain on top of heavy 
  snow will be difficult to manage.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A rapid transition to rain on is expected 
  Monday morning as winds gusts as high as 35 mph.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$

AKZ318>322-325-120000-
/O.CON.PAJK.WS.A.0011.221212T0600Z-221213T0600Z/
Municipality of Skagway-Haines Borough and Klukwan-Glacier Bay-
Eastern Chichagof Island-Cape Fairweather to Lisianski Strait-
City and Borough of Juneau-
Including the cities of Skagway, White Pass, Haines, Gustavus, 
Hoonah, Tenakee Springs, Elfin Cove, Pelican, and Juneau
651 AM AKST Sun Dec 11 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow with total accumulations of 6 to 12 inches
  possible.

* WHERE...The northern inner channels, including Skagway, Haines,
  Gustavus, Hoonah, Tenakee Springs, Elfin Cove, Pelican and 
  Juneau.

* WHEN...From Sunday evening through Monday evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact Monday morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Amounts will vary across the watch area as
  temperatures warm through the day Monday. Some locations will
  begin mixing with rain by the afternoon with a short period of
  freezing rain possible. The heaviest snow rates will be from 
  Monday morning into the early afternoon hours.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare for possible heavy snow early. Continue to monitor the
latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/juneau

268 
WWAK47 PAJK 112350
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
250 PM AKST Sun Dec 11 2022

...A strong warm front will produce impactful snow over the
northeast Gulf Coast and portions of the northern Panhandle from 
tonight through Monday night. Low level warm air will move in 
behind this front and this will result in a transition from snow 
to rain or a rain/snow mix from Monday afternoon through Monday 
night...


AKZ318-321-120100-
/O.CAN.PAJK.WS.A.0011.221212T0600Z-221213T0600Z/
Municipality of Skagway-Eastern Chichagof Island-
Including the cities of Skagway, White Pass, Hoonah, 
and Tenakee Springs
250 PM AKST Sun Dec 11 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH IS CANCELLED...

Impactful snow is forecast over the Winter Storm Watch area, but 
not expected to reach warning amounts.

$$

AKZ317-121500-
/O.CON.PAJK.WS.W.0013.221212T0000Z-221212T1500Z/
City and Borough of Yakutat-
Including the city of Yakutat
250 PM AKST Sun Dec 11 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 12
  inches.

* WHERE...City and Borough of Yakutat.

* WHEN...From 3 PM Sunday to 6 AM AKST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Rain on top of heavy 
  snow will be difficult to manage.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A rapid transition to rain is expected 
  Monday morning. Winds will gust as high as 40 mph.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$

AKZ320-322-121500-
/O.UPG.PAJK.WS.A.0011.221212T0600Z-221213T0600Z/
/O.NEW.PAJK.WW.Y.0035.221212T0600Z-221212T2100Z/
Glacier Bay-Cape Fairweather to Lisianski Strait-
Including the cities of Gustavus, Elfin Cove, and Pelican
250 PM AKST Sun Dec 11 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON AKST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches.
  Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Gustavus, Elfin Cove, and Pelican.

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to noon AKST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Heavy snow will be
  difficult to manage. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will transition to rain and become
  moderate to heavy at times, complicating snow removal efforts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

AKZ319-325-121500-
/O.UPG.PAJK.WS.A.0011.221212T0600Z-221213T0600Z/
/O.NEW.PAJK.WW.Y.0035.221212T1200Z-221213T0600Z/
Haines Borough and Klukwan-City and Borough of Juneau-
Including the cities of Haines and Juneau
250 PM AKST Sun Dec 11 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM AKST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches
  near Haines. Total accumulations of 5 to 7 inches in and near
  Juneau. Higher amounts possible in the Mendenhall Valley.

* WHERE...Haines Borough, Klukwan, and City and Borough of 
  Juneau.

* WHEN...From 3 AM to 9 PM AKST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult and hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning and evening commutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow is expected to transition to rain in
  the Juneau area by Monday evening and become heavy at times.
  This will seriously complicate snow removal efforts. Haines
  should remain as snow for the duration of the event. 
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. Plan ahead for 
difficult snow removal conditions. 

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/juneau

450 
WWAK47 PAJK 121455
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
555 AM AKST Mon Dec 12 2022

...A strong warm front will produce impactful snow over the
northeast Gulf Coast and portions of the northern Panhandle 
through Monday night. Low level warm air will move in behind this 
front and this will result in a transition from snow to rain or a 
rain/snow mix from Monday afternoon through Monday night...

AKZ317-121600-
/O.EXP.PAJK.WS.W.0013.000000T0000Z-221212T1500Z/
City and Borough of Yakutat-
Including the city of Yakutat
555 AM AKST Mon Dec 12 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 AM AKST EARLY THIS
MORNING...

Snow accumulation will taper off as warming temperatures result in
a changeover to rain through the morning hours.

$$

AKZ320-322-122100-
/O.CON.PAJK.WW.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-221212T2100Z/
Glacier Bay-Cape Fairweather to Lisianski Strait-
Including the cities of Gustavus, Elfin Cove, and Pelican
555 AM AKST Mon Dec 12 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST
TODAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Gustavus, Elfin Cove, and Pelican.

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to noon AKST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Heavy snow will be 
  difficult to manage.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will transition to rain and become 
  moderate to heavy at times, complicating snow removal efforts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

AKZ319-325-122300-
/O.CON.PAJK.WW.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-221213T0600Z/
Haines Borough and Klukwan-City and Borough of Juneau-
Including the cities of Haines and Juneau
555 AM AKST Mon Dec 12 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 
  inches near Haines. Total accumulations of 5 to 7 inches in 
  and near Juneau. Higher amounts possible in the Mendenhall 
  Valley.

* WHERE...Haines Borough, Klukwan, and City and Borough of 
  Juneau.

* WHEN...From 3 AM to 9 PM AKST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult and hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning and evening commutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow is expected to transition to rain in 
  the Juneau area by Monday evening and become heavy at times. 
  This will seriously complicate snow removal efforts. Haines 
  should remain as snow for the duration of the event.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. Plan ahead for
difficult snow removal conditions.

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/juneau

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
535 AM AKST Sat Dec 10 2022

.SHORT TERM...NWLY jet stream with a core of +150kt is moving
eastward across the central gulf this morning and will be over the
panhandle late tonight. This flow pattern typically brings
colder, dry, continental air from the interior. There is high
confidence in the dry forecast, however, winds are not coming all
the way from the Arctic Circle and the ridge that is causing it
looks to be progressive, so not expecting a prolonged cold spell
like the last one.

At the surface, an inverted trough extends northward over the inner
channels from yesterday's departing low while a 1024-1031mb high
lies over the Yukon River area. This northerly pressure gradient is
causing 35-40kt winds with gusts of 50-55kt through Lynn Canal
and Stephen's Passage this morning. Some areas of light to
moderate freezing spray are possible with these current conditions
and temperatures. Gusts of 30-40 mph are likely in vicinity of
Lynn Canal, Downtown Juneau and other communities near outflow
areas or prone to mountain wave winds during the first half of the
day. These places will also be the warmest, while nearby wind
sheltered areas will stay 10 degrees cooler. High temperatures for
today were increased based on current obs, which will likely see a
decreasing trend where winds let up.

Through the next 24 hours the pressure gradient over the region
will decrease as the low to the south moves away and the high
pressure tracks east across the Yukon. Winds through Lynn Canal
will slowly ease, but some outflow gusts will continue out of Taku
and the southern interior passes.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday into next week/...The mid range forecast was
mainly focused on the next round of precip coming to the
panhandle. Strong outflow winds are still expected with gales
calming down through the day on Sunday. Freezing spray in the
inner channels is possible early Sunday before the winds slow down
in the afternoon.

Then the next round of rain and snow approaches. Center of low
pressure looks to track along the southern border of Alaska with a
warm front extending ahead of the low and a cold front behind.
The front ahead of the low looks to arrive in the panhandle Sunday
night and the cold front behind the low arrives a couple days
later. So Sunday night through Tuesday is when rain and snow is
likely. A big question is how quickly will the warm air push out
the cold air? In other words, how long with the snow last before
switching to rain?

For now, the forecast has the winds shifting to the south Monday
morning, so for those along and south of Icy Strait, that is when
the snow should mix with rain. And any snow that does fall will be
the wet/heavy type of snow. For those in N Lynn Canal, the wintry
mix looks to arrive Monday night to early Tuesday morning.

As far as snowfall amounts are concerned, snow ratios start off
around 10-15:1 and quickly lower to 6-9:1, which makes sense as
the warmer air moves in. QPF amounts are backed by the ENS means
and probability data from the GFS and EURO. So for Sunday and
Sunday night, highest QPF is in the Yakutat area at around a third
of an inch with just a few hundredths elsewhere. Monday and Monday
night's QPF amounts are around a half inch to an inch and a half
for near Icy Strait and north. To the south, generally a quarter
to half inch. Tuesday and Tuesday night's QPF is, broad-brush, a
quarter to half inch across the panhandle.

So, assuming all those pieces come together:
-The snow switching to mix to rain
-The snow ratios are correct
-The QPF amounts are in the ball park

Sunday night's snowfall will be heaviest in Yakutat at around 1
to 3" with less than an inch elsewhere. Monday, Monday night, and
Tuesday look to get around 1 to 4" for each of those 12-hour
periods for the northern panhandle, lighter in the southern
panhandle.

There is a lot of uncertainty in this snowfall forecast due to
the uncertainty in the switch from snow to rain and how quickly
that happens. So stay plugged into the forecast as the fine
details get figured out.

&&

.AVIATION...The Northerly outflow winds will continue to impact
the Panhandle through much of the weekend. Some LLWS in a few areas
adjacent to locations which experience mountain waves. Additionally,
increased winds blowing out of interior passages such as the Taku
and Taiya Inlets along with several others may create moderate
turbulence for low-flying aircraft. By Sunday night into Monday, a
new system arriving in the panhandle results in winds beginning to
turn more towards the S, with more widespread LLWS.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind through this evening for AKZ319.
     Strong Wind until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ325.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-022-031-033-043.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-032-034-041-042-051>053.

&&

SHORT TERM...Ferrin
LONG TERM....GJS
AVIATION...GFS

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau