Storm Warning 7, NWS Juneau, AK

762 
FZAK67 PAJK 071042
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
242 AM AKDT Thu Apr 7 2022

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-080445-
242 AM AKDT Thu Apr 7 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A strong gale force low today slowly weakens as it curves NW to 
end up just S of Cape Suckling on Thu afternoon. A ridge of high 
pressure builds in over the southern Panhandle Thu afternoon and 
expands over the rest of the eastern Gulf and Panhandle into the 
weekend. 

$$

PKZ310-080445-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
242 AM AKDT Thu Apr 7 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt becoming W 30 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 
12 ft in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. W swell. 
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
312 PM AKDT Wed Apr 6 2022

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Thursday night/...The main threats
for the short term forecast period are the winds and seas over
the Gulf and inner channels from a storm force low that we have
been forecasting for several days. It has entered the eastern Gulf
of Alaska from the south and will continue moving to the NNW
while gradually weakening to just beneath Gale limits by Thursday
evening when it will still be over the eastern Gulf just to the
southwest of Yakutat. Winds over the southeastern Gulf look to
remain storm force into this evening. The majority of the rest of
the Gulf looks to experience Gales as the system weakens. The
central and southern Inner channel winds will be up to Gale force
as the tightest pressure gradient passes over those areas as the
low tracks NNW into Thursday morning.

Temperatures were allowed to warm to the upper 40s today over the
northern Panhandle due to decreased cloud cover. Skagway has
reached 50 degrees as of 3 PM. Within the last couple of hours, a
high thin cirrus band out ahead of the low has moved over the
northern Panhandle. Clouds will thicken and lower into the evening
as the low approaches. This will help insulate the area, keeping
temperatures moderated overnight. Rain is occurring over the
southern third of the Panhandle as of this afternoon. The
precipitation will spread northward over the rest of the Panhandle
through the night. Some evaporational cooling will occur at the
onset of the precipitation as the lower levels of the atmosphere
moisten up, but the cooling is not expected to be significant. The
primary form of precipitation over most areas of the Panhandle is
expected to be rain. Some light snow accumulations will occur
near White pass, Haines Border Customs, and less so over the
Yakutat area. Looking at the 850mb model forecast temperature and
wind field, no significant temperature advection is expected
through the short term forecast period. Temperatures will
generally be between 35 and 40 degrees tonight, highs tomorrow
between 40 and 50, and lows between the lower and upper 30s,
respectively from north to south over the Panhandle. Increased
radiational cooling will be the determining factor for the cooler
temperatures Thursday night.

Conditions will begin to improve heading toward the long term
forecast period. Decreased chances for precipitation, broken cloud
cover, and much lighter winds. These conditions will allow
temperatures to cool.

Forecast confidence is generally high due to good operational
model initialization and confirmation of our forecast this
afternoon via satellite wind observations and surface observations.

.LONG TERM...Confidence is increasing in a dry and sunny weekend
and potentially even for the first half of next week. Ensembles
suggest a mean ridge forming over the gulf this weekend. By
Tuesday into Wednesday uncertainty increases. Taking a look at the
WPC's 3-7 day multimodel cluster mean heights, it tells a story
of conflict on how the midlevel features interact with each
other. Depending on the solution, mid next week could be cooler/wet
or drier/warmer for the panhandle.

Friday, our storm force low that is entering the gulf Wednesday,
will be exiting the gulf to the NW. This will keep rain over the
northern panhandle with more of a drier/showery pattern over the
central and southern panhandle. By Friday afternoon, onshore flow
will dominate SEAK keeping shower activity across the panhandle.
We start drying out Friday night and into Saturday as surface
ridging begins to develop over the panhandle. Winds are expected
to be relatively light (10-15 kts) through the inner channels.
Along the coast, winds 20-25 kts look to develop.

By Saturday night, offshore flow should be fully developed
setting the stage for clearing skies Sunday through Tuesday.
North winds increase through the inner channels beginning Sunday
morning, with highest winds through Lynn Canal and local northerly
outflow pattern areas. For now, this dry pattern does look to
last through Tuesday, but with uncertainty increasing at this time
period, left some chances for precip.

Temperatures do look to warm into the upper 40s and even into the
low 50s with clearing skies aiding in daytime heating processes.
Overnight lows will be on the cooler side with temperatures in the
upper 20s to low 30s.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind through Thursday morning for AKZ023-026.
     High Wind Warning until 11 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ027-028.
     Strong Wind from 1 AM AKDT Thursday through Thursday morning for
     AKZ021-022-024.
     Strong Wind from late tonight through Thursday afternoon for
     AKZ025.
     Strong Wind from late tonight through Thursday afternoon for
     AKZ020.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ041-042.
     Gale Warning for PKZ021-022-031>033-035-036-043-051.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-034-052-053.

&&

JLC/CC

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