Storm Warning 13, NWS Juneau, AK

589 
FZAK52 PAJK 291259
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
459 AM AKDT Sat Oct 29 2022

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-300700-
459 AM AKDT Sat Oct 29 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A storm force low will track eastward across the Gulf through
Saturday, then into the NE gulf Saturday night. Seas and a SW
swell on the south side of the low will build to very high
levels through Sunday. The low will remain over the NE gulf
through Sunday while slowly weakening. 

$$

PKZ041-300700-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
459 AM AKDT Sat Oct 29 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 40 kt in the morning, then
becoming SW. Seas 16 ft building to 22 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 50 kt. Seas building to 38 ft. SW swell. Rain 
showers.
.SUN...SW storm force wind to 50 kt diminishing to gale to
35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 40 ft. SW swell. Rain showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 26 ft. SW swell. Rain showers.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-300700-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
459 AM AKDT Sat Oct 29 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt in the morning becoming SW 40 kt. Seas 14 
ft building to 21 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 50 kt. Seas building to 40 ft. SW swell. Rain 
showers.
.SUN...SW gale to 45 kt. Seas 40 ft. SW swell. Rain showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft. SW swell. Rain showers. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-300700-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
459 AM AKDT Sat Oct 29 2022

...STORM WARNING LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS 
AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt becoming E 55 kt in the late morning, then
becoming S 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft building to 22 ft. 
Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 38 ft. Rain showers. 
.SUN...SW gale to 40 kt. Gusts to 55 kt. Seas 37 ft. Rain 
showers.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-300700-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
459 AM AKDT Sat Oct 29 2022

...STORM WARNING LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt becoming E 55 kt in the late morning, then
diminishing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft building to 26 
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt becoming NE 30 kt late. Seas 24 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-300700-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
459 AM AKDT Sat Oct 29 2022

...STORM WARNING LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt increasing to 50 kt in the late morning. 
Near the coast, E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 25 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt becoming N 30 kt late. Seas 23 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 20 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. SW swell. 
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

188 
FZAK52 PAJK 292320
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
320 PM AKDT Sat Oct 29 2022

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-301730-
320 PM AKDT Sat Oct 29 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A storm force low will track eastward across the Gulf this
evening, then into the NE gulf tonight. Seas and a SW swell on
the south side of the low will build to very high levels through
Sunday. The low will remain over the NE gulf through Sunday
while slowly weakening. 

$$

PKZ041-301730-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
320 PM AKDT Sat Oct 29 2022

...STORM WARNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt increasing to 50 kt. Seas 22 ft building
to 39 ft. Rain showers. 
.SUN...SW wind 50 kt diminishing to 35 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 37 ft. Rain showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain showers in the
evening. 
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. W swell. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. W swell. 
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft subsiding to 9 ft. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt becoming W. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-301730-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
320 PM AKDT Sat Oct 29 2022

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind increasing to 50 kt. Seas 21 ft building to 40
ft. Rain showers. 
.SUN...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 37 ft. Rain showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain showers in the
evening. 
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. W swell. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft. W swell. 
.TUE...E wind 10 kt becoming S 20 kt. Seas 12 ft subsiding to
8 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-301730-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
320 PM AKDT Sat Oct 29 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft building to 38 ft. Rain
early in the evening, then rain showers. 
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Gusts to 55 kt. Seas 34 ft. Rain
showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. W swell. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. W swell. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-301730-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
320 PM AKDT Sat Oct 29 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt late. Seas 23 ft.
Rain showers in the evening. 
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain showers in the
afternoon. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt becoming E late. Seas 17 ft. Rain
showers in the evening. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-301730-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
320 PM AKDT Sat Oct 29 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt becoming N 30 kt late. Seas 23 ft. Rain
early in the evening. 
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain showers in the
afternoon. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft building to 16 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
304 PM AKDT Fri Oct 28 2022

.SHORT TERM...Cold core upper low is traversing the Panhandle
early this afternoon. Widespread showers are accompanying this
low. Steep lapse rates underneath the cold pool aloft combined
with weakening boundary layer flow has allowed snow to mix in with
the heavier showers in a few areas and this should continue into
the early evening hours with no accumulation expected. The
exception will be White Pass where and additional 2 inches or so
of snow is possible through early evening.

Attention then turns to the developing storm force low seen on
satellite pushing quickly eastward across the AK Peninsula this
afternoon. This low will take up residence in the central Gulf by
Saturday morning and then slowly move eastward and weaken through
Sunday. As the occluded front swings north into the northern Gulf
Saturday morning, storm force winds will be widespread over the
outside waters with near gale to gale conditions spreading across
the inner channels along and south of Icy Strait. This storm will
have significant cold advection on the south side of the low
center and thus expect strong SW winds to impinge on the southern
outer coast by Saturday night.

To the north, the surface pressure gradient across the far
northern Lynn Canal communities of Haines and Skagway will favor
north winds during the short term period. Snow levels are
currently less than 1000 ft over this area and should lower to sea
level by Saturday morning as at least some cooler boundary layer
air gets drawn south from the Yukon. As the front lifts northward
on Saturday, SE overrunning flow in the 925 to 850mb layer will
yield a pattern favoring the Haines area and the highway for snow
accumulations through Saturday night. Have some concern over just
how cool the sea level communities can get as we dont yet have a
true arctic airmass in place. Thus went with a Winter Weather
Advisory for the Haines Highway where temps are currently hovering
near freezing and should continue to through the event. Should
cooler air be able to be drawn into Haines proper, snow totals
will need to be adjusted upward but for now will hold with an
advisory for 3 to 6 inches of new snow.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Friday/...The storm force low from
Saturday will move into the NE AK Gulf where it will remain quasi
stationary while rapidly weakening Sunday into Monday. By Tuesday
weak riding will replace the low before the next system tracks
from the west Wednesday into Thursday. Lots of uncertainty on this
mid week low track and the weather pattern for the rest of the
week.

Secondary wrap over the southern AK Gulf weakens as jet support
moves to the south. Still some breezy conditions over the southern
panhandle and high end gales over the gulf but mainly coastal waters
and southwestern shores will be dealing with high seas due to
westerly swell. Overall trend will be a decrease in winds and seas
by Monday. What was looking like an outflow wind event for mid week
isn't looking as favorable due to the low remnants lingering in the
NE gulf keeping any East-West gradient down.

Showers over the Panhandle last a bit longer into Monday due, once
again, to the remaining low in the NE Gulf. No much QPF with these
showers overall but may see some locally higher amounts where flow
enhances orographic lift. More breaks in showers Monday night into
Tuesday. The next front have large timing issues between operational
models as larger spread on main low that moves over the Bering.
Ensembles have some heavy precip with this front so expect the
precip, just not sure on timing.

Cold air advances in as we move into the week as start of an arctic
front moves down from the Yukon. Since the ridging is not as
pronounced not likely to see as much of this cold air get over the
region as when the NE gulf low was previously forecast to be further
south. The cold air will lead to more snow or rain-snow showers
especially for the central and northern locations. But for now not
much snow accumulation is expected.

Operational models trended toward the previous days GFS solution but
GFS still keeps a deeper low in place much longer. Used a blend of
GFS/ECMWF initially then kept with an WPC ensemble solution for the
rest of the mid range.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR conditions are expected across Southeast Alaska
for the next 24 hours with lower CIGs and reduced VSBY in rain
showers. Persistent pattern of layered clouds from 1500 feet up
to the flight levels into this evening. Conditions look to
improve a bit during the overnight hours before the next storm
starts to move into the area tomorrow morning bringing conditions
back to MVFR/IFR with widespread rains moving in along the next
front. Low level wind shear has calmed down during the day but
looks to return in the morning tomorrow with the next approaching
system.

&&

.MARINE...Attention is once again focused on outer coast tide
gauges. Astronomical high tide for the next few days will
coincide with strong southwesterly winds. This combined with the
waxing crescent moon and associated spring tides will cause tides
to be higher than they would otherwise be. Highest high tides
will occur in the early afternoon and particular attention is
being paid to the tidal predictions and surge at Sitka and Port
Alexander. In both locations, the combination of the astronomical
tide and predicted storm surge will result in water levels close
to the highest astronomical tide, or HAT. Water levels will reach
higher than normal levels, so individuals should remain vigilant
and take precautionary actions if needed.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind Saturday afternoon for AKZ317.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ318.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 1 AM AKDT Sunday
     for AKZ319.
     Strong Wind from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon for
     AKZ323-330.
     Strong Wind from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon for
     AKZ327.
     Strong Wind from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon for
     AKZ328-329.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ043-051-052.
     Gale Warning for PKZ022-031-034>036-041-042-053.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-032-033.

&&

SHORT TERM...DEL
LONG TERM....PRB
AVIATION...JG/SEF
MARINE...Fritsch

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