High Wind Warning 14, NWS Juneau, AK

921 
WWAK77 PAJK 210320
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
620 PM AKST Sun Nov 20 2022

AKZ328-330-332-211400-
/O.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0014.221121T1600Z-221122T0200Z/
Prince of Wales Island-Ketchikan Gateway Borough-Annette Island-
Including the cities of Craig, Klawock, Hydaburg, Coffman Cove, 
Thorne Bay, Ketchikan, and Metlakatla
620 PM AKST Sun Nov 20 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM AKST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Prince of Wales Island, Ketchikan Gateway Borough and 
  Annette Island.

* WHEN...From 7 AM to 5 PM AKST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds may blow down trees and power lines.
  Widespread power outages are possible. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/ajk

457 
WWAK77 PAJK 211338
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
438 AM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022

AKZ328-330-332-212145-
/O.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0014.221121T1600Z-221122T0200Z/
Prince of Wales Island-Ketchikan Gateway Borough-Annette Island-
Including the cities of Craig, Klawock, Hydaburg, Coffman Cove, 
Thorne Bay, Ketchikan, and Metlakatla
438 AM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM AKST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Prince of Wales Island, Ketchikan Gateway Borough and 
  Annette Island.

* WHEN...From 7 AM to 5 PM AKST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds may blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are possible. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A wind shift to the SW is expected in the
  late afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A high wind warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/ajk

789 
WWAK77 PAJK 212127
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1227 PM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022

AKZ328-330-332-220200-
/O.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0014.000000T0000Z-221122T0200Z/
Prince of Wales Island-Ketchikan Gateway Borough-Annette Island-
Including the cities of Craig, Klawock, Hydaburg, Coffman Cove, 
Thorne Bay, Ketchikan, and Metlakatla
1227 PM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM AKST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Prince of Wales Island, Ketchikan Gateway Borough and 
  Annette Island.

* WHEN...From 7 AM to 5 PM AKST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds may blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are possible. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Recorded peak winds so far have been 58 
  mph at Hydaburg and 72 mph at Ship Island. A wind shift to the 
  SW is expected in the late afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/ajk

206 
WWAK77 PAJK 220053
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
353 PM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022

AKZ328-330-332-220200-
/O.CAN.PAJK.HW.W.0014.000000T0000Z-221122T0200Z/
Prince of Wales Island-Ketchikan Gateway Borough-Annette Island-
Including the cities of Craig, Klawock, Hydaburg, Coffman Cove, 
Thorne Bay, Ketchikan, and Metlakatla
353 PM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

Winds have begun to diminish as the system moves through the
panhandle and into British Columbia.

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/ajk

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
612 AM AKST Sun Nov 20 2022

.SHORT TERM...Weather front associated with a weakening low in
the N Central Gulf is moving over the AK Panhandle early Sunday
while dissipating. Rain was the main precip type for SE AK,
except for the far northern panhandle and the Hyder area. For
these locations northerly or outflow winds kept temperatures down
resulting in all snow for Hyder and a wintry mix for Haines and
Skagway with some freezing rain in Haines early this morning.
Another low tracks eastward along the Aleutians with its
associated front reaching the eastern gulf Sunday night. A triple
point low along this front moves up from the N Pacific into the
SE Gulf by late Sunday night.

For Sunday winds are shifting to the south early in the morning
brining in warmer air with locations at lower elevations
transitioning to all rain. Temps will continue to rise through
the day or level off with a non-diurnal trend and some of the
warmest temps occurring later in the evening. Precip rates
diminish as our initial front shears apart. Any breaks will be
short lived as the next front moves in. Heavy rain with this front
first hits the NE Gulf Coast and central panhandle then as the
triple point feature moves in heavy rain will cover the southern
Panhandle. Winds along the coastal waters will pick up to gale
force in the evening then higher winds around the triple point,
with inner channel winds picking up to max small craft to near
gales late Sunday night. Coastal and southern areas overland winds
will also start increasing with gusts of 40 to 45 mph late in the
night.

.LONG TERM...A return to an active pattern is in full force
during the long term forecast, as a full-fledged resurgence of
the Pacific Storm Season will see system after system advance into
the panhandle. This includes what will likely be a strong storm
system impacting SE AK on Nov 23 and 24 which would bring with it
a significant amount of wind, rain, and for some areas possibly
snow.

Operational guidance has come into good agreement on the idea of a
rapidly developing low moving along the front which was already
over the area before recurving off to the NW a short distance
offshore of the panhandle through the day on Monday. Anticipate
that this will provide a respectable amount of precipitation for
the area, as well as gale force winds across many of the inner
channels. High end gale force winds are anticipated across the
outer coastal waters and eastern Gulf through the day on Monday,
and strong winds will be present across many land based areas as a
front associated with this low rapidly advances through the
panhandle. At this time, the system looks to primarily be a rain
maker with the possible exception being for the Klondike Highway
and to a lesser extent the Haines Highway, where snow will likely
prove a factor. A weaker system will arrive on Tuesday, bringing
with it additional moisture, and keeping parts of the area fairly
saturated.

These systems will prove to be the harbinger of a more powerful
storm system which will arrive on the eve of Thanksgiving and
impact the panhandle through Thanksgiving Day. A brief period of
upper level ridging in the wake of the previous system which built
along the eastern flank of the longwave will give way to the W
flank of the longwave trough which will deepen into a more narrow
and well- defined upper level trough. N flow in the lower levels
will be encouraged by a strong system forming on the E flank of
this trough. Individual ensemble members across the GEFS, GEPS,
and ECMWF ensembles show some differences in the exact track of
the low but there is better agreement on the center approaching
the NE Gulf coast by late Thursday. There is also broad consensus
that the accompanying moisture support and associated winds with
this system will be significantly more substantial than with the
previous ones. Combined with divergence aloft, the panhandle will
be favorably situated to see a respectable amount of precipitation.
The critical question is whether or not this precipitation is
rain or snow, especially in locations near sea level. Although 850
mb temperatures of -3C to -5C would normally be less than
favorable, a potentially very strong front advancing almost
directly out of the S could offer the potential for an
undercutting event to take place. Guidance oftentimes struggles
with forecasting undercutting events-given the general tendency of
warm air advection to successfully mix out cooler air near the
surface. Should an undercutting event take place, advancing cooler
air in the lowest levels of the atmosphere will successfully
force the warm air advection moving N aloft, setting the stage for
a potential snow event for parts of SE Alaska. At this time, the
possibility of a snow event would more likely than not primarily
effect the far N panhandle, with far lower confidence in the
possibility of a significant snow event for areas further S or in
the Icy Strait Corridor. Any snow event however would likely be a
low confidence event barring the Klondike and Haines Highways.
Changes in frontal orientation, the strength and location of the
low, and timing of the system, will all have significant impacts
on whether or not the system proves to be a snow-maker of note or
a rain- producing event. Regardless, respectable QPF totals are
anticipated with this system, with possible river rises, alongside
the potential for significantly elevated winds as the system
advances into the area.

The other big component of this system, alongside the
precipitation, will be the wind. The impressive frontal band
advancing N will see significantly elevated winds across most of
the panhandle and the associated maritime areas. Storm force winds
are anticipated across the outer gulf, outer coastal waters and
the Dixon entrance as the frontal band races N on Wednesday, with
gale force winds and small craft winds likely to be associated
with the system through much of Thursday. Significantly elevated
winds across many land based areas will also take place, and it is
possible that the wind forecast may need to be further increased
across some locations as guidance comes into better agreement on
the exact timing of the initial frontal band and the associated
dynamic support from the main low itself.

Beyond Thursday, ensemble guidance begins to steadily diverge.
There may be some chance for a break in some locations through
parts of Friday and Saturday. The overall pattern will continue to
be general troughing over the E gulf and the panhandle, which
would help favor continued chances of precipitation overall.

&&

.AVIATION...Widespread MVFR ceilings with periods of light rain
look to prevail today. Last hold out with below freezing
temperatures as of 4am is PAHN where a wintry mix and CIGs between
006-015 continues. But south wind and warming temps are slowly
spreading northward, just reaching Eldred Rock, and should reach
the PAHN airport in the next 3-6hrs. This will cause their CIGs to
lift to be more in line with the rest of the area and for the
p-type to switch to all rain.

This evening, another frontal trough pushes in causing SE winds to
increase and some LLWS may be added to the TAFs with subsequent
updates. A developing low tracking northward over the eastern gulf
early Monday will also cause increased winds and LLWS.

&&

.MARINE...A weakening storm force low moves out of the NE Pac
into the SE gulf late Sunday into Monday. This will bring strong
gales to the E gulf and gales south of Frederick and Cross Sounds
with strong breezes through the rest of the inner channels. Winds
and seas will ease late Mon into Tue as this system dissipates.
Focus then shifts to a weakening hurricane force low moving from
NE Pac into SE gulf Wed into Thu. This will bring storm force
winds to the gulf with gales expected for most inner channels.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind late tonight for AKZ317-323.
     Strong Wind late tonight for AKZ327-328-330-332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-041>043-051.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-021-022-031>035-052-053.

&&

SHORT TERM...PRB
LONG TERM....GFS
AVIATION...Ferrin

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Juneau AK
950 AM AKST Sun Nov 20 2022

AKZ317>332-210700-
City and Borough of Yakutat-Municipality of Skagway-
Haines Borough and Klukwan-Glacier Bay-Eastern Chichagof Island-
Cape Fairweather to Lisianski Strait-City and Borough of Sitka-
Admiralty Island-City and Borough of Juneau-Petersburg Borough-
Western Kupreanof Island and Kuiu Island-Prince of Wales Island-
City and Borough of Wrangell-Ketchikan Gateway Borough-
City of Hyder-Annette Island-
Including the cities of Yakutat, Skagway, White Pass, Haines,
Gustavus, Hoonah, Tenakee Springs, Elfin Cove, Pelican, Sitka,
Angoon, Juneau, Petersburg, Kake, Port Alexander, Craig, Klawock,
Hydaburg, Coffman Cove, Thorne Bay, Wrangell, Ketchikan, Hyder,
and Metlakatla
950 AM AKST Sun Nov 20 2022

...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

Strong wind gusts up to 55 mph and periods of heavy rain with
total amounts as high as 2 inches are expected. The strongest
winds and highest rainfall totals will be along the outer gulf
coast and the southern panhandle as a developing low moves up
along the NE Gulf Coast. This will increase the risk of impacts
across SE Alaska before the low makes landfall near Yakutat. A
developing front associated with the low will bring the highest
wind gusts and the greatest rainfall rates beginning during the
early morning period on Monday and lasting through the day before
conditions begin to improve through Monday night. Another strong
system will arrive in the area Wednesday and Thursday bringing
more impactful weather.