Gale Warning 84, NWS Juneau, AK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
828 PM AKDT Tue Mar 29 2022

.UPDATE...The low pressure system in the SE Gulf has moved inland
far enough and with a tight enough pressure gradient to produce
wind gusts of 60 mph, just slightly higher than previously
forecast. High Wind Warning has been issued until 5 am AKDT
Wednesday for southern zones 27 and 28. Strongest winds will
occur through midnight then diminish as the low progresses
northward. Refer to the warning statement for more information.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT ...

SHORT TERM.../Through Wed night/ Damp day across the area as a
system brings rain to most of the panhandle. Rainfall totals have
been around a half an inch or less in the last 12 hours. This
will change to add windy to the mix this evening as a gale force
low in the NE Pacific slides north along the outer coast tonight.
Satellite imagery shows the relevant system as a rather well
defined low center SW of Haida Gwaii around 1 pm.

There are a few changes of note for the forecast as the low comes
northward. First the timing of the low now has it coming through
around 3 hours earlier then previously depicted and that speed up
follows the low up the outer coast until it weakens N of Cape
Edgecombe early Wed. Highest winds are still expected in the
southern panhandle but are now peaking around 10 to 11 pm this
evening. This also means that the higher westerly winds behind
the low will also arrive at various areas a little earlier as
well.

The second change is some increase in wind intensity as the
system pulls through. Maximum gusts for southern Prince of Wales,
Annette Island, and Ketchikan areas will very likely be in the 45
to 55 mph range tonight with gusts to 40 mph possibly up into
Wrangell, and maybe Petersburg and Kake overnight. There is a
chance for higher gusts in the south, but it will likely be very
short lived if it does happen. Then comes the westerly winds on
the south side of the low. Currently guidance has gale force W
winds up to Cape Decision, and gusty SW winds (40 mph gusts)
reaching outer coastal areas as far north as Sitka by Wed morning.
Again the winds do not last all that long and will be diminishing
by Wed afternoon as the generating low weakens. Most areas are
expected to be below 20 kt by Wed night.

The precipitation forecast on the other hand has not changed all
that much. The precip bands that are over the panhandle right now
will be pulled out into the gulf as the low approaches tonight and
will come back inland as the low moves north. It will then
transition to showers into Wed night and diminish. All sea level
areas will remain warm enough for rain through Wed evening.

LONG TERM.../ Thursday to Sunday / A narrow ridge will be
moving east through SE AK on Thursday as a moderately strong low
moves northward towards Kodiak Island. The associated frontal band
will spread into the eastern part of the Gulf of Alaska and to
the coast by early Friday morning, there will be rain starting
Friday and as a wave on the front lifts into the southern half of
the panhandle Friday morning. A trailing wave will be moving north
through the southeastern portion of the gulf and into the
southern panhandle Saturday. Shower activity will continue into
Sunday as the low remains quasi-stationary, so the flow pattern
into the panhandle.

The general pattern of low over the northern gulf and southern
portion of the mainland and the westerly zonal flow appears to
remain south of the gulf into next week.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 7 AM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ026.
     High Wind Warning until 5 AM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ027-028.
     Strong Wind from 4 AM AKDT Wednesday through Wednesday afternoon
     for AKZ023.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ033>036-041-042.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-022-031-032-043-051>053.

&&

EAL/Bezenek/PRB

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1037 PM AKDT TUE MAR 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0954 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NW THORNE BAY         55.70N 132.54W
03/29/2022  M61 MPH          PRINCE OF WALES-HYDAK   MESONET

            MESONET STATION THOA2 THORNE RIVER RAWS.

&&

BFL