Gale Warning 49, NWS Juneau, AK

992 
FZAK67 PAJK 171246
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
346 AM AKST Thu Feb 17 2022

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-180700-
346 AM AKST Thu Feb 17 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
Low pressure near Prince William Sound weakens through this
afternoon as a strong ridge of high pressure over the NE 
Pacific strengthens across the Inner Channels. Tonight a weather
front tracks across the western gulf and arrives at Southeast
Alaska Fri afternoon.   

$$

PKZ310-180700-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
346 AM AKST Thu Feb 17 2022

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt late. Seas 10 ft. SW
swell. Rain late. 
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. W swell. 
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
655 AM AKST Wed Feb 16 2022

.SHORT TERM.../Through Wednesday night/ The overall weather
pattern remains relatively the same this week with a strong ridge
over the Gulf and weak waves passing up and over it. The next weak
system to bring an increase in precipitation to the region
approaches the area from the west early this morning. Surface
ridging strengthens over the Panhandle ahead of the low
increasing southerly flow and bringing "warmer" marine air
northward. With that said, expect P-type to be mainly rain at sea
level with the exception of Yakutat, where a NE gradient will keep
colder air in place long enough for a period of snow before a
transition to rain. Expect a half inch to an inch of rainfall
today across Southeast Alaska with highest amounts along steep
terrain. Once the main batch of rain moves through today, expect
onshore SW flow to set up behind the front with terrain induced
showers likely continuing through Thursday. One thing to note,
with such an active weather pattern this year, many locations
across the region are nearing their wettest February on record
already! Juneau Airport needs less than a half inch of liquid
precipitation to break the record for wettest February, which will
likely occur today. The previous record wettest February for
Juneau was set back in 1964 with 8.48 inches of liquid precip for
the month. This is coming right after the wettest January on
record for Juneau and other locations across Southeast Alaska!
Needless to say, 2022 has been yet another record breaking year so
far weather-wise and the active weather looks to keep on coming.

The weak low in the northern gulf pushes a front through the
region from west to east Wednesday evening. Right behind the
front, a 40-55 kt low level southwesterly jet moves in aloft with
gusts likely mixing down to the ground. Post frontal
southwesterlies will likely be felt through the Panhandle this
afternoon and evening for few hours. Put gusts to 40 mph for a
brief period in Juneau and Upper Lynn Canal. Strong winds may last
longer in Skagway as the ridge tightens the pressure gradient up
there. Also put a brief period of southwest winds in Petersburg,
Wrangell and along the Outer Coast this evening. Small craft
conditions develop through the Inner Channels as the front passes
through but are expected to slowly diminish through Thursday.

Overall forecast confidence remains around average.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Saturday Night/...An upper level
ridge axis over the gulf on Wednesday gradually shifts east
through the long term as impulses moving over the top of the
ridge work to flatten the ridge. GFS/GEFS/EC/EC Ensemble hint at
a pattern change Saturday and beyond to a more trough/ridge
alternating pattern over the gulf and Panhandle, but models
sometimes tend to break down ridges too soon, so there is less
confidence Saturday and beyond. At the surface, there is good
model agreement that a series of waves will wiggle their way
through/over the ridge to affect the panhandle. The first wave
arrives late Wednesday morning and lasts into Thursday, spreading
a round of moderate rain from NW to SE across the area with
rainfall amounts of 0.75-1.5 inches. The next wave impacts the
Panhandle Thursday night into Friday with a follow-on impulse
keeping precipitation going into Saturday mid- day with similar
rainfall amounts (1-2 inches). After each wave, the surface ridge
rebounds slightly with breaks possible, but the timing is hard to
discern this far out. Plus, with continued onshore flow, lighter
showers and/or low stratus could fill in the gaps between the
waves. Confidence is low, but possible break times include
Thursday afternoon and Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Stay
tuned for revisions to the forecast as the timing gets resolved.

Precipitation type is expected to be mostly rain with these waves.
Exceptions to this include Yakutat, where snow could mix in from
time to time, and upper Lynn Canal - particularly out the Haines
and Klondike highways. Snow amounts look very manageable with just
a slushy inch or two here or there. White Pass stays snow the
entire timeframe and stands the best chance to see accumulating
snowfall, but amounts are looking light, with 3-4 inches every 24
hours. Snow levels range from 500-1,500 ft for the northern
Panhandle to 2,500-5,000 ft for the south through Friday.
Ensembles and operational models show a cooling trend through the
weekend with snow levels dropping to near sea level across the
north and 500-1,000 ft south by Sunday morning. Forecast
temperatures reflect the slight cooling trend through the weekend,
but nothing out of the ordinary as far as cold is expected at
this point. As for wind, it is unremarkable for SE AK standards.
Expect widespread Small Craft conditions with the first wave, with
a period of min-gales over the central gulf Wednesday evening.
The wind looks even less impressive with the Thursday night
through Saturday system.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 PM AKST this evening
     for AKZ025.
     Strong Wind from noon AKST today through this evening for AKZ019.
     Strong Wind from noon AKST today through this evening for AKZ018.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031-032-041>043-
     051>053.

&&

CM/BFL

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau