Gale Warning 33, NWS Juneau, AK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
647 AM AKST Thu Jan 13 2022

.SHORT TERM...A storm force front brings a moderate to heavy rain
Thursday in to Yakutat and pushing into the Panhandle Thursday
night. Wind will accompany the front as well. In fact, we upped
winds in zone 52 to storm force this afternoon to accompany the
front. Coastal residents can expect some possible gusty winds this
afternoon for Yakutat and into Sitka. But the front does weaken
quickly as it pushes into the Panhandle. Meanwhile, light
gradients in Upper Lynn Canal does have the potential to spark a
winter event for the highways of Upper Lynn Canal. However,
guidance has been stronger on the northerly gradients than
reality. Haines as of this hour still reads in the upper 30s with
an east wind. And while Skagway's northeast wind encourages winter
forecasters, the delayed flip to northerlies through Lynn Canal
and the lack of deep cold air up the Chilkat Valley does not help
the case. Thus, we have warmed temperatures to take this in
consideration. Given a warmer starting point, we slowed cooling
this afternoon and are not super confident on it. But given an
anticipated northerly gradient, we did make the precipitation all
snow, even as temperatures will likely remain above freezing at
sea level. Thus we made the decision to upgrade the watch for a
longer duration advisory with two main bouts of snow: one with the
storm force front late this afternoon through early Friday
morning, and the other mainly Friday afternoon through Friday
evening with a brief break between.

Another main point of concern lies in the gale force front
approaching the southeast Gulf Friday into Friday night.
Baroclinicity is weak with this system, as it should be
enshrouded in the cool air across the gulf. But 925 mb winds do
approach 60 kt. MOS numbers were not super impressive for the 00Z
issuances, but we have noticed they have ticked up a bit. The
period of concern begins around 15Z Friday and persists through 12
or 15Z Saturday. While the system is relatively fast moving, a
second wrap seems just as likely Friday night, and in some cases,
MOS numbers are more bullish on the second wrap than the first on
Friday. With this, we have opted for a special weather statement.
A high wind watch was considered but confidence was not there.

Snow levels do rise above 2K feet into Friday. With still very
high seasonable snowpack across much of the region, nuisance
flooding is still a possibility as well as swelling of local
creeks. For this reason, rivers and creeks will constantly be
watched during the rest of this week for any issues. Please stay
tuned to changes in the forecast.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday night/...This forecaster
asseverates that the active wet pattern continues through at least
Sunday. The long term starts with a weakening surface low over
the AK Peninsula and the associated gale force front draped across
the panhandle bringing rain and wind for Friday morning. A new
triple point low forms along the tail of the front in the southern
gulf and moves northeastward towards the panhandle bringing more
wind and rain, focused on the southern and central zones. Included
gales in Clarence Strait and strong winds for areas of the
southern panhandle for Friday morning through Saturday morning
(i.e. Craig, Hydaburg, Ketchikan, Prince of Wales Island, Annette
Island). Depending on the track and strength of this low, there is
potential for the wind to reach high wind criteria, so this will
continue to be analyzed with future model runs. Yet another wave
forms in the southern gulf on Saturday night and brings more rain
and wind to the panhandle Sunday, again focused on the southern
and central zones, but it appears that this wave will not be as
strong as the previous system. Even though there are brief lulls
between each system, generally speaking liquid precipitation
amounts look to be 2-4 inches Friday through Monday morning. This
will continue to elevate concerns regarding flooding since the
snowpack is becoming increasingly saturated. Snow levels remain
high through Monday averaging 500-2000 feet north, 1500-3000 feet
south. As stated in the short term discussion, the only real snow
concerns remain on the Klondike and Haines highways, but
confidence is low in the forecast precip amounts there.
Temperatures look to remain above freezing for highs, near
freezing for lows - with a possible slight cool down on the
horizon at the very end of the time frame.

Looking past Monday, the forecast becomes increasingly murky as
model agreement at the synoptic level loses cohesion. Signs points
to the continuation of the active pattern, though models disagree
on whether this will take the form of waves entering the
panhandle or more organized fronts. Ensembles are indicative of a
cool-down for much of the area through at least part of next
week, though likely not anywhere near as cold as it has been for
much of the past few weeks. There are also some hints that this
will be a short lived cool down-though any warmup will likely be
accompanied by more precipitation.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Flood Watch from 3 PM AKST this afternoon through Saturday
     morning for AKZ020>029.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM AKST this morning for AKZ026>028.
     Strong Wind from 3 PM AKST this afternoon through this evening
     for AKZ023.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to midnight
     AKST Friday night for AKZ018-019.
     Flood Watch through this evening for AKZ017.
     Strong Wind from 3 PM AKST this afternoon through this evening
     for AKZ017.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ052.
     Gale Warning for PKZ041>043-051-310.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-021-022-031>036-053.

&&

JWA/BFL

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1224 PM AKST THU JAN 13 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     SNOW             1 E YAKUTAT             59.55N 139.71W
01/13/2022  E62.0 INCH       YAKUTAT            AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            ESTIMATED SNOW DEPTH ON 1/13 NEAR YAK AROS
            SITE.

&&