Gale Warning 21, NWS Juneau, AK

700 
FZAK52 PAJK 080040
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
340 PM AKST Fri Jan 7 2022

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-081845-
340 PM AKST Fri Jan 7 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A weak low continues to track S along the Panhandle coast Friday 
evening. Northerly outflow increases Saturday as the pressure 
gradient tightens ahead of a storm force front approaching the 
coast. Outlook. A series of strong lows and fronts move into the 
region over the weekend and into next week.
 

$$

PKZ041-081845-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
340 PM AKST Fri Jan 7 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Snow showers early in the
evening. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray in the morning. 
Rain with snow in the afternoon. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 17 ft
late. Rain and snow late. 
.SUN...SE gale to 45 kt. Gusts to 60 kt. Seas 29 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 16 ft
subsiding to 12 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-081845-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
340 PM AKST Fri Jan 7 2022

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing
spray late.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12
ft. Freezing spray in the morning. Rain and snow in the 
afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Snow in the evening.
Rain.
.SUN...SE gale to 45 kt. Seas 30 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 27 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-081845-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
340 PM AKST Fri Jan 7 2022

...GALE WARNING THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 35 kt in the evening. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E gale to 45 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain and snow. 
.SUN...SE storm force wind to 50 kt. Seas 29 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 26 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-081845-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
340 PM AKST Fri Jan 7 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray late. 
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...E gale to 40 kt. Seas 14 ft building to 19 ft
late. Freezing spray. Rain late. 
.SUN...E storm force wind to 50 kt. Seas 29 ft. Freezing
spray. Rain and snow. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt. Gusts to 50 kt out of interior
bays and passes. Seas 27 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-081845-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
340 PM AKST Fri Jan 7 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E gale to 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain late. 
.SUN...E storm force wind to 50 kt. Seas 27 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 28 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft subsiding to 14 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

954 
FZAK52 PAJK 081254
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
354 AM AKST Sat Jan 8 2022

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-090700-
354 AM AKST Sat Jan 8 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
Lower pressure remains in the gulf with a weak front extending 
eastward across the Southern Panhandle Saturday morning. A second 
Gale force front lifts northward through the region Saturday 
evening through Sunday. At the same time, a strong area of low 
pressure moves northward toward Kodiak Island by Sunday evening. 
Outlook. A series of strong lows and fronts move into the region 
next week. 
 

$$

PKZ041-090700-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
354 AM AKST Sat Jan 8 2022

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE. Gusts to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray early in the morning. Snow.
Rain in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...S wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 16 
ft late. Rain in the evening, then snow late. 
.SUN...S gale to 40 kt. Seas 29 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 16 ft
subsiding to 12 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-090700-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
354 AM AKST Sat Jan 8 2022

...GALE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray 
early in the morning. Snow in the morning, then rain with snow in
the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Snow in the evening. Rain.
.SUN...S gale to 40 kt. Seas 29 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-090700-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
354 AM AKST Sat Jan 8 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Freezing spray early in the
morning. Snow showers early in the morning. Rain in the
afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain. Snow late. 
.SUN...SE gale to 45 kt. Seas 28 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S gale to 40 kt. Seas 25 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-090700-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
354 AM AKST Sat Jan 8 2022

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 14 ft building to 19 
ft late. Freezing spray. Rain late. 
.SUN...E gale to 45 kt. Seas 28 ft. Freezing spray in the
morning. Snow in the morning. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 26 ft. 
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-090700-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
354 AM AKST Sat Jan 8 2022

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.SUN...E gale to 45 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE gale to 45 kt. Seas 27 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft subsiding to 14 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

032 
FZAK52 PAJK 082354
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
254 PM AKST Sat Jan 8 2022

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-091800-
254 PM AKST Sat Jan 8 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A gale force front lifts northward through the region Saturday
evening through Sunday. At the same time, a strong area of low 
pressure moves northward toward Kodiak Island by Sunday evening. 
Outlook. A series of strong lows and fronts move into the region 
next week. 

$$

PKZ041-091800-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
254 PM AKST Sat Jan 8 2022

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt becoming S 35 kt late. Seas 12 ft 
building to 17 ft late. Snow early in the evening. Rain in the 
evening, then rain and snow late. 
.SUN...S wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-091800-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
254 PM AKST Sat Jan 8 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING AND LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt in the evening, diminishing to 30 kt, then
becoming SE 35 kt late. Seas 15 ft. Snow early in the evening. 
Rain. Snow in the evening.
.SUN...S wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft subsiding to 10 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-091800-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
254 PM AKST Sat Jan 8 2022

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain, snow.
.SUN...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S gale to 40 kt becoming SE 30 kt late. Seas
26 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt becoming N. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-091800-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
254 PM AKST Sat Jan 8 2022

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 19 ft late.
Freezing spray. Rain with snow and freezing rain late. 
.SUN...E wind 50 kt. Seas 27 ft. Freezing spray in the morning. 
Snow in the morning. Rain and freezing rain. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 28 ft. Rain and freezing
rain in the evening, then rain late. 
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-091800-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
254 PM AKST Sat Jan 8 2022

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 17 ft late. Rain
late. 
.SUN...E storm force wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE gale to 45 kt. Seas 29 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
259 PM AKST Thu Jan 6 2022

.SHORT TERM...Satellite imagery this afternoon showing a
developing low west of the AK gulf, cloud band over the Yukon
moving south, and a low near Haida Gwaii weakening and tracking
to the south. Nearing the end of our frigid arctic outbreak with
strong outflow winds. But just before the end had one of the
coldest nights so far with a few locations (mainly with shorter
data collection time frame) hitting record low temperatures. The
Juneau NWS office reached -18 F this morning. Skagway airport was
the winner on winds gusts with a peak of 64 mph overnight. As the
NW Canadian high pressure weakens and the Haida Gwaii low moves
south pressure gradients will decrease with diminishing winds
through Friday night. However this will be a short lived break due
to strong lows and fronts moving in Saturday (see discussion
below.)

For Friday a weak low forms in the NE Gulf and tracks south along
the panhandle coast eventually merging with wave activity coming
up from the south. Initially all precip from this low is expected
stay off shore Friday with mostly increasing cloud cover, but by
Friday night as it strengthens will have increasing PoP for the
south. Lots of model spread on this system and how far north it
moves in, but this is typical for models dealing with break down
of an extended blocking pattern such as we've had for AK. GFS is
bullish on moving in precip further north and higher QPF. Canadian
does not goes as far north as the GFS but has higher QPF for the
south. ECMWF and NAM keep all precip out of the area until main
front moves in for Saturday. If precip does move in will be be all
snow with a good hit of snow totals due to high snow ratio.
However leaning more toward the 'drier' solution, especially for
the central and northern panhandle. Forecast confidence is below
average due to the large model spread and run to run
inconsistency.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday onwards) A pattern change is expected in
the long term with a rapid warm-up, back-to-back precipitation
events, and strong coastal winds.

A very wet weekend and next week is expected with back-to-back
rounds of subtropical moisture being pushed northwards. Winter
Storm Watches are issued for the entire panhandle Saturday into
Sunday and precipitation will continue through the week. This
first system is a major snow to rain event with warm, moist air
coming from the Souther Pacific. Forecast confidence on the timing
and location of this system is low, which is why the forecast has
a large range of snowfall. Lowest confidence on when the warm air
will arrive for the northern half of the panhandle, especially
Northern Lynn and Juneau areas. Expect lowest temperatures to
occur early Saturday morning and to gradually increase through
the weekend, resulting in near normal temperatures for the
panhandle. Marine winds increase to high-end gales with boundary
jets seeing the highest winds along the Gulf coast, diminishing
on Sunday. Gusty land conditions are expected across the panhandle
with the highest gusts expected near Hydaburg and Ketchikan, with
strong vertical wind shear expected elsewhere, especially Yakutat.
See the Winter Storm Watches and your local forecast for more
details.

Continued to trend precipitation and snowfall amounts upwards and
adjusted the system to move in a bit later to follow the
EC/Canadian guidance, as the GFS is the outlier. Moderated
precipitation at the end of this main system to show a potential
quick break early Monday before a weaker low moves into the Gulf.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday
     afternoon for AKZ023-024-026>028.
     Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday evening
     for AKZ017>022-025-029.
     Wind Chill Advisory until noon AKST Friday for AKZ018-019.
     High Wind Warning until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ018.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ011.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ012-031.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ013.
     Gale Warning for PKZ012.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-022-031-032-041>043-051-052.

&&

PRB/KRT

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