Winter Storm Warning 3, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
227 PM AKST Sat Feb 19 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
The calm before the storm as ridging builds in over the Interior
today and Sunday. This is ahead of a storm moving into the West
Coast, beginning Sunday morning and persisting into Tuesday. The
associated front moves inland and will bring more snow to the
Interior early next week, as well as strong gap winds through the
Alaska Range and Brooks Range.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
There is a shortwave trough moving into the Pacific NW, which has
temporarily flattened out the very strong NE Pacific Ridge. There
is a broad region of weak troughing aloft over the northern half
of the Mainland, with a shortwave ridge translating east into the
SW Mainland. A strong warm front is moving north into the Eastern
Bering Sea. Even farther south, there is a rapidly developing low
in the NPAC, which is what will be responsible for the incoming
storm late this weekend and early next week.

Model Discussion...
Models are in better agreement than yesterday, and seem to be
converging with respect to placement and timing of the initial
frontal zone as it shifts north through the Bering Strait and West
Coast, as well as the location of heavier snow inland. The NAM and
ECMWF were favored for this forecast, with NAM winds favored while
ECMWF snow totals were favored. This has the result in pushing
the forecast snow totals up over the Western/Central Interior for
Monday.

Central and Western Interior...
Beautiful weather through Sunday, as that late winter sun peaks
through the clouds and gives hope to Interior residents after
another long winter.

Things change Monday as the flow becomes more southerly, and a
strong front/trough from the West Coast shifts inland, bringing
more snow to the Central Interior as early as Sunday night and
early Monday. Much heavier snow moves in Monday night and Tuesday,
bringing a swath of 5-9" of snow from the Western AK Range to the
Upper Koyukuk. Much less snow expected for the Eastern Interior
as downslope flow will really limit amounts until late MOnday and
Tuesday, where 2-5" of snow is possible, with 6-8" in the southern
portions of the Eastern Alaska Range.

In addition, expect strong southerly gap winds in the Alaska Range
to push into the 60 MPH range, possibly higher in Isabel Pass.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Busy weather upcoming as a warm front shifts north through the
West Coast/Interior beginning Sunday morning, and reaching the
Lisburne Peninsula Sunday morning. This front will bring a myriad
of weather impacts including gale force sustained easterly
offshore winds, significant blowing snow in favored gap areas, and
heavy accumulating and blowing snow along the coast. Mixed rain
will also occur over the Delta and Lower Yukon Valley. Possible
ground blizzard conditions will also be in place for the Kotzebue
Sound area. Monday night and Tuesday the low moves inland, which
will bring heavy snow to the Interior, with a swath of 4-10" of
snow from the Kusko Valley north to the Western Brooks Range.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Quiet weather with high pressure over the North Slope today.
A strong southerly gradient develops Sunday evening and Monday,
which will induce an easterly wind along the North Slope and
strong south winds through the Brooks Range gaps. Significant
blowing snow is likely through the Brooks Range gaps along the
north side of the range (including Atigun Pass), with warming
temps over the Arctic along with increased snow chances on
Tuesday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...A strong storm will move
north through the Bering Strait on Monday and Tuesday. The
general storm track will likely move north up through the Bering
Strait, which may bring some ice push onto shores across Norton
Sound and possibly the Yukon Delta. Some water over ice may also
be an issue, but right now no significant issues are anticipated.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Busy and stormy weather looks likely over the West Coast as a
strong south flow develops, and builds a ridge over the Interior.
This looks to bring warming temps inland as 850 C temps shoot up
above zero C Wednesday through late week. This pattern will be a
huge change from the persistent winter pattern.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ201.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ206.

Winter Storm Watch for AKZ209-AKZ211-AKZ213.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

&&

AHSENMACHER FEB 22