Winter Storm Warning 13, NWS Fairbanks, AK

147 
WWAK42 PAFG 032342
WSWWCZ

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
342 PM AKDT Thu Nov 3 2022

AKZ210-041500-
/O.CON.PAFG.WS.W.0013.000000T0000Z-221104T1500Z/
Northern and Interior Seward Peninsula-
Including Buckland, Deering, Candle, Council, Haycock, 
Pilgrim Springs, Serpentine Hot Springs, and Taylor
342 PM AKDT Thu Nov 3 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM AKDT
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow occuring. Total snow 
  accumulations of up to 8 inches.

* WHERE...Northern and Interior Seward Peninsula.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM AKDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible and 
  will see reduced visibility to near blizzard conditions at 
  times.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow and blowing snow with reduced 
  visibility to less than half a mile at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected or occurring. This will make travel very
difficult or impossible.

&&

$$

AKZ214-041745-
/O.EXB.PAFG.WW.Y.0082.221104T0200Z-221105T0000Z/
Yukon Delta-
Including Mountain Village, Emmonak, Alakanuk, Kotlik, 
Pilot Station, St Marys, Scammon Bay, Hooper Bay, Marshall, 
Nunam Iqua, and Pitkas Point
342 PM AKDT Thu Nov 3 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow with low visibility expected. Total
  snow accumulations of 4 inches. Visibility one half mile or 
  less at times. Winds gusting to 30 mph.

* WHERE...Yukon Delta.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM AKDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing snow
  could cause very low visibility at times.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow and blowing snow will develop this
  evening and continue into Fri. Blowing snow will reduce
  visibility to below half a mile at times. Conditions will
  improve Friday afternoon. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

AKZ215-041745-
/O.EXB.PAFG.WW.Y.0082.221104T0800Z-221105T0200Z/
Lower Yukon Valley-
Including Russian Mission, Grayling, Holy Cross, Shageluk, Anvik,
and Flat
342 PM AKDT Thu Nov 3 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
6 PM AKDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 inches.

* WHERE...Lower Yukon Valley.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 6 PM AKDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavier snow will develop late tonight and
  continue into Fri. Visibility will be reduced at times.
  Conditions will improve Friday evening. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

AKZ207-041745-
/O.EXT.PAFG.WW.Y.0082.000000T0000Z-221104T2000Z/
Chukchi Sea Coast-
Including Point Hope, Shishmaref, Kivalina, and Espenberg
342 PM AKDT Thu Nov 3 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow occuring with periods of low
  visibility. Total snow accumulations of 4 inches. Winds gusting
  as high as 40 mph. Visibility one half mile or less at times. 

* WHERE...Chukchi Sea Coast.

* WHEN...Until noon AKDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Periods of blowing 
  snow could reduce visibility to near blizzard conditions at 
  times.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strong northwest winds are causing snow
  squalls, that will cause visibility to become very low at times.
  Winds will decrease Friday afternoon and conditions will
  improve.
  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

037 
WWAK42 PAFG 041429
WSWWCZ

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
629 AM AKDT Fri Nov 4 2022

AKZ210-041530-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WS.W.0013.000000T0000Z-221104T1500Z/
Northern and Interior Seward Peninsula-
Including Buckland, Deering, Candle, Council, Haycock, 
Pilgrim Springs, Serpentine Hot Springs, and Taylor
629 AM AKDT Fri Nov 4 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

$$

AKZ207-041530-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WW.Y.0082.000000T0000Z-221104T2000Z/
Chukchi Sea Coast-
Including Point Hope, Shishmaref, Kivalina, and Espenberg
629 AM AKDT Fri Nov 4 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Snow has tapered off. Light snow or flurries may occur through 
the morning but little snow accumulation expected. Winds west of 
Shishmaref and around Diomede will continue to gust up to 35 mph 
but weaken through the day.

$$

AKZ214-050000-
/O.CON.PAFG.WW.Y.0082.000000T0000Z-221105T0000Z/
Yukon Delta-
Including Mountain Village, Emmonak, Alakanuk, Kotlik, 
Pilot Station, St Marys, Scammon Bay, Hooper Bay, Marshall, 
Nunam Iqua, and Pitkas Point
629 AM AKDT Fri Nov 4 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow with low visibility expected. An
  additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with storm total
  snow up to 7 inches. Visibility one half mile or less at times.
  Winds gusting to 30 mph and up to 45 along the southwest coast.

* WHERE...Yukon Delta.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM AKDT Today.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing 
  snow could cause very low visibility at times.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow and blowing snow with reduced
  visibility to less than half a mile at times. Conditions will
  improve this evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

AKZ215-050200-
/O.CON.PAFG.WW.Y.0082.000000T0000Z-221105T0200Z/
Lower Yukon Valley-
Including Russian Mission, Grayling, Holy Cross, Shageluk, Anvik,
and Flat
629 AM AKDT Fri Nov 4 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow expected. An additional snow accumulations of 5
  inches with storm total snow up to 7 inches. Winds gusting up to
  25 mph.

* WHERE...Lower Yukon Valley.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM AKDT Today.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow and blowing snow with reduced
  visibility to less than half a mile at times. Conditions will
  improve this evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
422 PM AKDT Wed Nov 2 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong storm in Southwest Alaska will move over Southcentral Ak
and the Eastern Interior tonight, and then linger into Fri before
moving east Fri night and Sat. This will bring 4 inches of snow to
the Southwest Interior through tonight, and 4-7 inches of snow to
the Eastern Interior tonight through Fri, with the heaviest snow
along the Alaska Range and east of Fairbanks. The snow will taper
off Fri. This storm is causing moderate southerly chinook winds
over the Alaska Range that will taper off late this afternoon, and
easterly winds down the Tanana River, and over the Uplands north
of the Yukon River that will also taper off in the late afternoon.

A vertically stacked low near Point Lay will move over the
southern Chukchi Sea tonight through Fri. This will bring numerous
snow showers with snow squall type conditions and briefly low
visibility to the coast from the Bering Strait to Point Hope
tonight through Fri. Could see 2-4 inches of snow through Fri.
This will bring NW winds of 25 mph and high surf to Shishmaref
late tonight through Fri AM.

A storm moving from Russia into the Northern Bering Sea on Thu
will move over the YK Delta early Fri and over the Southwest
Interior Fri. This will bring 2-4 inches of snow and blowing snow
to SW Alaska Fri.

A storm moving north over Eastern Russia this weekend could bring
strong winds and high surf to the Bering Strait to Point Hope
area Sat night and Sun. Another storm moving north over the
Eastern Bering Sea on Mon and Mon night could bring high surf to
the West Coast from the YK Delta to the Bering Strait Mon and Mon
night.

Aloft...
A deep long wave trough over the Eastern Bering Sea and Western
Alaska will progress over Mainland AK by Fri as a series of short
wave troughs make their way east across Southern AK. This will
cause wet and cool conditions across most of Northern AK through
Fri.

A strong long wave ridge building over the Bering Sea on Fri will
build east over Mainland AK over the weekend. A series of short
wave troughs moving north along the West Side of this ridge over
the weekend will push several surface lows north over the weekend
into early next week. This will bring warmer and stormier
conditions to the West Coast this weekend into early next week.

Surface...
A 984 mb low near Iliamna will move to near Valdez as a 988 mb low by
4am Thu, to 60 NM south of Yakutat as a 992 mb low by 4pm Thu,
then drift slowly south on Fri. An occluded front stretching from
this low to Tanana to Valdez will move to Valdez to Eagle by 4am
Thu, to Valdez to Eielson to Old Crow by 4pm Thu, then remain in
place through 4am Fri and then move east and weaken on Fri. There
are southerly chinook winds over the Alaska Range ahead if this
storm that will diminish tonight and even turn north after
midnight. Snow is occuring over the Western and Central Interior
with the front, and will spread over most of the Eastern Interior
late tonight as the chinook winds end. Expect 4-7 more inches of
snow across most the the Interior south and east of Fairbanks..
with the heaviest snow in the Alaska Range and just east of
Fairbanks.

1000 mb low 70 nm N of Point Lay will move to Point Hope as a
1003 mb low by 4pm Thu, and to near Deering as a 1018 mb low by
4pm Fri. A low pressure trough stretching from this low to
Utqiagvik then to 30 NM north of Barter Island will remain in
place through Thu, then move south of the Arctic Coast Thu night
and Fri. Scattered snow showers will occur along this trough along
with off shore winds.

Another low pressure trough stretching from this low to south to
the Yukon Delta will move inland on Thu. A broad area of snow
showers from the low south to the Seward Pen will develop tonight
and continue through Fri along with NW winds of 25 mph.

A storm moving from Russia into the Northern Bering Sea on Thu
will move over the YK Delta early Fri and over the Southwest
Interior Fri. This will bring 2-4 inches of snow and blowing snow
to SW Alaska Fri.

A storm moving north over Eastern Russia this weekend is expected
to bring strong winds and high surf to the Bering Strait to Point
Hope area Sat night and Sun. Another storm moving north over the
Eastern Bering Sea on Mon and Mon night could bring high surf to
the West Coast from the YK Delta to the Bering Strait Mon and Mon
night

&&

.DISCUSSION...
At 12Z, models initialize well aloft and show same pattern aloft
into the weekend. Start to see slight differences in timing and
strength of short waves Sun with differences increasing next
week, but all models hold into ridging over Ern AK through late
next week. This will cause a stormy pattern for the West Coast
next week with potential for strong winds and high surf.

With precipitation, models show same general patterns with slight
differences in details. Will use a blend of models for precip
with the following caveats:
Will have precip likely over most of the Eastern Interior late
tonight through Fri, with pops dropping off Fri. Will have precip
likely over NW Alaska Coast tonight into Fri. Will have precip
likely over the YK Delta Thu night Fri, spreading into SW Interior
Fri. Pops all areas falling very low on Sat.

At the surface at 18Z, the NAM verifies spot on with all features
over Alaska, and the other models are pretty close. Models show
same general patterns at the surface through 4pm Thu, but with the
GFS showing weaker surface features. From Thu night into the
weekend the GFS is stronger than the NAM and ECMWF with the low
that moves over the YK Delta and then SE into the Gulf of AK.
Since the NAM does so well verifying at 18Z, we will use the NAM
at the surface through 4pm Thu, then a blend of the NAM and ECMWF
for Thu night into the weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
High surf at Shishmaref late tonight through Fri AM.
High surf expected from the Bering Strait to Point Hope Sat night
and Sun.
High surf possible from the Yukon Delta to the Bering Strait to
Mon and Mon night.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ220.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ221.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ222.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ223-226.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ223.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ225-226.
     High Surf Advisory for AKZ207.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-220.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ200.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ201.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210-235-240.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ215.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ220.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ225.
&&