Winter Storm Warning 1, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
159 PM AKST Sat Jan 22 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A chinook pattern is in place over the Interior with a stormy
pattern out west. This will continue into next week as another
storm moves into the West, and more high winds and warm weather
moves into the Interior. The trough shifts east Tuesday bringing
snow threats back to the Interior and dropping temps.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
There is a strong 490 dam upper level low over the N Bering Sea
just west of Saint Lawrence Island. There is a very well defined
atmospheric river on satellite imagery pointed at Southeast
Alaska. There is a shortwave trough over the N Gulf of Alaska with
the associated 990 mb low centered over Kodiak Island. A leading
warm front has moved up to the North Slope and shifted offshore
enough for winds to relax over some of the coastal areas. South
flow aloft is still pushing a moderate chinook across/through the
Alaska Range with gusts into the 50 mph range.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Snow will continue along a front stalled out over the Central
Interior and Upper Koyukuk Valley. South flow across the Alaska
Range will continue to support snow over the southern parts of the
Range, including Isabel and Windy Passes, with gusts from the south
into the 50-60 mph range over the northern ends. Also expecting
east-southeast winds to blow through the Tanana Flats into the 50
mph range Sun night and Mon, with warning level south winds
through the Alaska Range. Snow and blowing snow will also push
north into Atigun Pass with a 2-4" expected over the next few
days. Elsewhere, expect dry conditions with warming temps, with
the warmest temps generally coming on Monday as the surface low
tracks across the Western Interior.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A front has stalled out over the Western Interior and Western
Brooks Range, and will remain in place through Sunday with
periods of light snowfall. A much stronger front will bring in
heavy snow from the Yukon Valley west to the Yukon Delta north to
Kotzebue Sound Sunday night through Monday night with a wide swath
of heavy snowfall, possibly mixing with some rain/freezing rain
over the Lower Yukon Valley and Middle Kusko Valley. Snowfall
accumulations will be locally heavy with current forecast ranges
of 6-12" over a wide swath of the Western Interior, Western Brooks
Range, Nulato Hills, and Yukon Delta/Seward Peninsula. Expect
blowing snow over the coastal areas, as well, as northwest winds
gust into the 30+ mph range as the low shifts inland Mon and Mon
night.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
The easterly gradient has weakened dramatically along the
immediate arctic coast, which has resulted in an end to the
blizzard conditions and significant blowing snow.Several rounds of
snowfall over the next few days will bring more accumulating
snowfall to pretty much the entire Brooks Range and arctic coast
with a general 2-4" over the three day period. South winds
increase again over the eastern Brooks Range passes Sun night and
Monday, with blowing and drifting snow likely resulting in
deleterious conditions.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
The stormy pattern ends midweek with cold high pressure building
back in across pretty much the entire Mainland. Expect temps to
drop back into the deep freeze by the end of the week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch for AKZ225-AKZ226.

Winter Storm Watch for AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ212-AKZ214-AKZ215-
AKZ216-AKZ217.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ216-AKZ227.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.

&&

AHSENMACHER JAN 22