Wind Chill Warning 5, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
201 PM AKST Fri Feb 4 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Windy conditions continue to ramp down this afternoon across
Interior highway summits and around Norton Sound. Light snow
stretching from Norton Sound east expected to move into Fairbanks
late this afternoon and evening. Light snow will linger across the
Interior into early next week. A cooling trend will commence on
Monday, as colder Arctic air digs south across northern Alaska.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The upper level pattern this afternoon consists of general
troughing across northern Alaska. A deep longwave trough in the
Bering Sea is in phase with an Arctic trough that is centered
north of Banks Island. The general synoptic evolution going
through the weekend is the gradual digging of the Arctic trough
across northern Alaska beginning tonight. This Arctic trough is
usher in colder to the forecast area, leading to a cooling trend
and potential wind chill issues as early as tomorrow night. This
Arctic trough will persist into early next week, with the general
center of the closed low over the Yukon Delta by Monday night.

At this point, ridging will begin to build across the Gulf of
Alaska beginning on Tuesday, but there are some significant model
differences that casts doubt on how the upper level pattern will
evolve moving past Tuesday.

General surface low pressure lies across northern Alaska this
afternoon, with a weak front positioned west to east across Norton
Sound and the southern Interior. This front is producing light
snow in areas, with Fairbanks expected to receive snow from this
afternoon through tonight. This front will slowly dissipate in
place through tomorrow, with a second front developing tomorrow
afternoon across the Western Interior to the Yukon Flats. This
front will gradually move eastward with light snow persisting in
the eastern Interior through Sunday.

Surface high pressure will build across the North Slope beginning
tonight. This building of high pressure will tighten the pressure
gradient across the West Coast and the Brooks Range, resulting in
strong northerly flow that will continue into early next week.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Strong east winds over the last several days will continue to
slowly dissipate throughout this evening across Interior highway
summits. Light snow spreading across the Interior will result in
1 to 2 inches of snow to the areas going through the weekend. The
first round will be tonight into tomorrow, with a second round
tomorrow night into Sunday. Skies will then remain mostly cloudy
going into Monday as temperatures remain in the single digits
above for highs and single digits to teens below zero for lows. At
this point the weather pattern will return to cold conditions
with lows in the 10s to 20s below zero going into the middle of
the week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Bitter cold temperatures in the deeps 20s to 30s below zero this
afternoon across the North Slope is expected to remain cold this
weekend, with even colder temperatures into the 40s below zero
early next week. Winds will generally be west to northwest at 15
to 20 mph through the weekend. There is potential for marginal
blowing snow potential along the eastern Arctic Coast tomorrow
evening and into Sunday morning as high pressure building across
the Arctic Plains will tighten the pressure gradient and increase
winds at places like Kaktovik and Point Thompson. Northerly winds
through Brooks Range passes also expected to develop late tomorrow
with winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph into Sunday. Cold
wind chills will also accompany the increase in winds through the
Brooks Range and, to a lesser extent, across the Arctic Coast
going into next week.

West Coast and Western Interior...
East winds continue to dissipate today after prolonged wind issues
across Norton Sound throughout the week. Light snow spreading
across Norton Sound and into the Western Interior is expected to
persist into tonight before slowly dissipating, with primarily
MVFR conditions expected. A rapid cooling trend will begin tonight
as colder Arctic air begins to spread across the area.
Temperatures expected to be in the teens to 30s below zero by
Sunday night. Northerly winds generally in the 20 to 30 mph range
along the West Coast is expected to cause wind chill issues
beginning tomorrow night for coastal communities as these
temperatures continue to plummet throughout the weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended Forecast Days 4 to 7...
The upper level pattern over northern Alaska by Monday still is
dominated by the Arctic trough, thus the coldest temperatures from
this feature look to be on Monday night. Beyond Monday, the upper
level pattern becomes more muddied as models are struggling to
depict the evolution of the Arctic trough and ridging that begins
to build in across the Gulf of Alaska on Tuesday. Regardless, a
general warming trend going into the middle of next week looks
likely at this point with the ridging setup and magnitude of
warming still to be determined.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Gale Warning for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ245.

&&

FEB 22