Wind Advisory 46, NWS Fairbanks, AK

680 
WWAK73 PAFG 211517
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
617 AM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022

AKZ226-211630-
/O.EXP.PAFG.WI.Y.0046.000000T0000Z-221121T1500Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including the cities of Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
617 AM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...



$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
110 AM AKST Sun Nov 20 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Tranquil weather pattern of the past several days will continue
over Northern Alaksa with little change into Monday. Expect light
winds and mostly cloudy skies with a few flurries or areas with
some light snow over the Interior. Expect the gusty south winds
through the Alaska Range will diminish this afternoon. Unsettled
weather remains on the West Coast where gusty northeast winds will
continue through the Bering Strait and on St Lawrence Island. Low
level cloud cover will continue on the North Slope.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...

Aloft, high pressure is stretches from the Bering Strait to the
Yukon and then south through British Columbia. This is producing
zonal flow over the top of the ridge over the Northwest Coast and
the North Slope. Weak weather systems are wrapping around this
ridge grazing the West Coast and northwest part of the state. An
upper level low in the Northern Gulf of Alaska will weaken and
then merge with a secondary upper level low pressure system over
the Eastern Aleutian Islands on Monday and a sharp and cold upper
level trough over Siberia will dig south and east over the Bering
Sea merging with the upper level low over the Eastern Aleutians
and will push into Western Alaska on Tuesday. This cold and sharp
upper level trough will continue to push east over Alaska through
the week brining mush colder temperatures by the middle and end of
the week.

On the surface, the high pressure ridge aloft presents as a
surface high positioned in the Eastern Interior. A transition from
this high to low pressure occurs along the West Coast and the
North Slope, due to a broad low located in the Eastern Aleutian
Islands and a low in the high arctic. This broad trough continues
to produce unsettled weather for coastal areas and will push into
the Western and Central Interior Tuesday and Wednesday and into
the Central and Eastern Interior on Wednesday and Thursday. Much
colder temperatures will push east into the Interior behind this
trough.

Models...
The 20/00z model suite initialized well against the 00z surface
analysis and upper air observations and verified well with the 06z
surface analysis. Model spread remains minimal through the end of
the week with the model suite in general in agreement on synoptic
scale feature location and strength with all models continuing to
indicate a shift of the ridge currently over Eastern Alaska, the
Yukon and British Columbia to the east while the strong, cold and
sharp trough over the Eastern Bering Sea pushing east into the
West Coast and Western Interior Tuesday and Wednesday and into the
Central and Eastern Interior on Wednesday and Thursday.
Temperatures in the Central and Eastern Interior are expected to
drop 5 to 10 degrees below seasonal normals by the end of the
week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

Conditions on the North Slope will remain steady-state into the
beginning of the week with low clouds persisting. As with the
West Coast, they are on the edge of high and low pressure, which
is producing the weather for that region. The North West Arctic
Coast will see precipitation move in tonight and continue into
Monday, with weather system that will also affect the West Coast.
Meanwhile, the Eastern Arctic Coast remains quiet until Tuesday,
when a chance of precipitation moves in. Winds do increase some
Monday along all of the Arctic Coast. High temperatures in the
teens today and Monday will drop into the single digits below zero
by the end of the week. Low temperatures in the single digits
above tonight and Monday night will drop into the teens below by
the end of the week.

West Coast and Western Interior...

The West Coast and Western Interior will continue to see
persistent low-level cloud cover on as weather remains unsettled
enough to the west to produce cloud cover, but not quite enough to
produce precipitation over the Western Interior as the bulk of
the weather is being held off by the high. These low clouds are
also being influenced by being trapped under the high. Expect an
uptick in snow showers over the area Monday as the high pressure
over the Yukon begins to retreat to the east. Expect high
temperatures in the 20s to near 30 today and Monday along the
coast and in the 20s and teen inland and in the Western Interior
with low temperatures in the 20s and teen along the coast and
single digits above and below in the Western Interior tonight and
Monday night. High temperatures will cool through the week with
highs in the teens and single digits along the West Coast and in
the single digits below in the Western Interior by Friday. Low
temperatures will drop from the teens and single digits along the
Coast to 20s below zero inland and in the Western Interior by
Friday.

Central and Eastern Interior...

The interior remains quiet with just some mid and and upper level
cloud cover moving through the area. Very light snow and areas of
flurries are also possible especially over the southeastern
Interior as moisture along a very weak front pushes north and west
into the area and a weak front stalled along the Yukon river
weakens in place. Expect high pressure to remain over the Eastern
Interior into tonight. The high pressure is expected to weaken
and push south and east beginning Monday. Light winds are found
over most of the Interior with the one exception being gap winds
that will continue through the Eastern Alaska Range into tonight.
Temperatures will gradually cool to more seasonable conditions
with high temperatures today and Monday in the single digits and
teens cooling into the single digits below by Friday. Low
temperatures in the single digits above and below tonight and
Monday night will cool into the teens and 20s below by Friday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ213.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ220-225-230-235.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ220-225.

&&