Wind Advisory 38, NWS Fairbanks, AK

091 
WWAK73 PAFG 200045
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
445 PM AKDT Wed Oct 19 2022

AKZ222-200800-
/O.EXT.PAFG.FG.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-221020T0800Z/
Middle Tanana Valley-
Including the cities of Fairbanks, Fort Wainwright, Eielson AFB, 
Ester, North Pole, Moose Creek, Two Rivers, Fox, Chatanika, 
Chena Hot Springs, and Sourdough Camp
445 PM AKDT Wed Oct 19 2022

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Visibility one quarter mile or less in dense fog.

* WHERE...Middle Tanana Valley.

* WHEN...Until midnight AKDT tonight.

* IMPACTS...Hazardous driving conditions due to low visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Fog has thinned north and west of Fairbanks
  and east of Two Rivers. Fog is expected to thin late tonight as
  higher clouds move over the area. 

* ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...Please drive with headlights on.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of
distance ahead of you.

&&

$$

AKZ226-201645-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0038.221020T0800Z-221021T0000Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including the cities of Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
445 PM AKDT Wed Oct 19 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM
AKDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Eastern Alaska Range north of Black Rapids.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 4 PM AKDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
 
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

415 
WWAK73 PAFG 200228
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
628 PM AKDT Wed Oct 19 2022

AKZ224-200800-
/O.EXA.PAFG.FG.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-221020T0800Z/
Upper Tanana Valley and the Fortymile Country-
Including the cities of Tok, Tanacross, Eagle, Tetlin, Northway, 
Alcan, Chicken, and Boundary
628 PM AKDT Wed Oct 19 2022

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Visibility one quarter mile or less in dense fog.

* WHERE...Along the Alaska Highway.

* WHEN...Until midnight AKDT tonight.

* IMPACTS...Hazardous driving conditions due to low visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Fog is expected to thin late tonight as 
  higher clouds move over the area.

* ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...Please drive with headlights on.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of
distance ahead of you.

&&

$$

AKZ222-200800-
/O.CON.PAFG.FG.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-221020T0800Z/
Middle Tanana Valley-
Including the cities of Fairbanks, Fort Wainwright, Eielson AFB, 
Ester, North Pole, Moose Creek, Two Rivers, Fox, Chatanika, 
Chena Hot Springs, and Sourdough Camp
628 PM AKDT Wed Oct 19 2022

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Visibility one quarter mile or less in dense fog.

* WHERE...Middle Tanana Valley.

* WHEN...Until midnight AKDT tonight.

* IMPACTS...Hazardous driving conditions due to low visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Fog has thinned north and west of Fairbanks
  and east of Two Rivers. Fog is expected to thin in Fairbanks late
  tonight as higher clouds move over the area.

* ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...Please drive with headlights on.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of
distance ahead of you.

&&

$$

AKZ226-201830-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0038.221020T0800Z-221021T0000Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including the cities of Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
628 PM AKDT Wed Oct 19 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM
AKDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Eastern Alaska Range north of Black Rapids.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 4 PM AKDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

014 
WWAK73 PAFG 200752
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1152 PM AKDT Wed Oct 19 2022

AKZ222-200900-
/O.EXP.PAFG.FG.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-221020T0800Z/
Middle Tanana Valley-
Including the cities of Fairbanks, Fort Wainwright, Eielson AFB, 
Ester, North Pole, Moose Creek, Two Rivers, Fox, Chatanika, 
Chena Hot Springs, and Sourdough Camp
1152 PM AKDT Wed Oct 19 2022

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT AKDT TONIGHT...

$$

AKZ224-200900-
/O.EXP.PAFG.FG.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-221020T0800Z/
Upper Tanana Valley and the Fortymile Country-
Including the cities of Tok, Tanacross, Eagle, Tetlin, Northway, 
Alcan, Chicken, and Boundary
1152 PM AKDT Wed Oct 19 2022

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT AKDT TONIGHT...

$$

AKZ226-210000-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0038.221020T0800Z-221021T0000Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including the cities of Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
1152 PM AKDT Wed Oct 19 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Eastern Alaska Range.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM AKDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

037 
WWAK73 PAFG 200805
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1205 AM AKDT Thu Oct 20 2022

AKZ226-210000-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0038.000000T0000Z-221021T0000Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including the cities of Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
1205 AM AKDT Thu Oct 20 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* WHERE...Eastern Alaska Range.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

314 
WWAK73 PAFG 202214
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
214 PM AKDT Thu Oct 20 2022

AKZ226-202315-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0038.000000T0000Z-221021T0000Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including the cities of Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
214 PM AKDT Thu Oct 20 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The winds have diminished, but gusts up to 40 mph are still 
expected through this afternoon.

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
126 PM AKDT Wed Oct 19 2022

.SYNOPSIS...A weather front moving to the West Coast will
continue to decay as the low remains well to the west. A weak
weather pattern will develop across the area with a mix of clouds
and showers across the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...19/12Z solutions are in good agreement and there has
been decent run to run consistency. Precipitation solutions in
general are similar, but the ECMWF is more aggressive with the
probabilities, so will lean a bit away from that solutions and go
with a stronger GFS/NAM based blend. Models show the dense fog in
the Fairbanks area hanging around well into the evening, but these
events are infrequent so it may clear up earlier. Wind solutions
are similar so we will use a blend with a lean to the Canadian and
GFS solution.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...A 526 dam low has moved over Nuiqsut this
afternoon with weak ridging extending from a 538 dam high over
Cape Lisburne southeast to a 537 dam high over Ambler to McCarthy.
Weak ridging is also pushing north over Kodiak Island and the
southwest mainland. A broad area of lower heights with a 501 dam
low over northern Kamchatka cover the Bering Sea, Chukotsk
Peninsula, and Western Chukchi Sea with a trough lying over St
Matthew Island to Sand Point. By Thursday morning ridging will be
pushing over the state south and east of the Yukon River while a
525 dam low will be over Umiat, and the broad area of lower
heights to the west will persist with a 506 dam low over northern
Kamchatka and the trough moving to lie from the low over Cape
Romanzof to Kodiak City. The high that was over the Northwest
Arctic Coast will move over the Arctic 400 nm northwest of
Utqiagvik at 539 dam. Thursday afternoon ridging will push a bit
further north to the Eastern Arctic Coast as the low over Umiat
weakens and moves over Atqasuk at 525 dam with troughing extending
east over the southern Beaufort Sea. The broad area of lower
heights to the west will have a 515 dam low over the Gulf of
Anadyr, and a 510 dam low over northern Kamchatka with the trough
moving to lie over Gambell to McGrath to Anchorage. Ridging in the
Arctic will strengthen as the high moves to 400 nm north of
Wrangel Island at 541 dam. Friday morning the high in the Arctic
will be over the Dateline near 80N at 543 dam, while ridging will
still be pushing northwest over the Eastern Interior and Eastern
Brooks Range. Weak troughing will persist over the Arctic Coast
with the broad area of lower heights to the west with a 513 dam
low over Northern Kamchatka and the trough extending east over the
Bering Strait to Galena to a developing 520 dam low over
McCarthy. At 850 hpa...A few pockets of temperatures around 0C
south of the Brooks Range will moderate to below 0C tonight with
forecast area between -2C and -9C by Thursday afternoon.
Temperatures will continue to slowly cool through Saturday
morning.

Surface...A low in the northeastern Gulf of Alaska will move
northeast into the Yukon Territory this evening. with weak low
pressure extending west over the southern Interior and
southcentral Alaska to a front that is moving onshore south of the
Bering Strait. Broad low pressure over the Bering Sea with a 983
mb low along the front near Nunivak Island, and a 972 mb low in
northern Kamchatka. High pressure is pushing south across the
Arctic to the Yukon River from a 1032 mb high 400 nm north of
Banks Island. Thursday morning the high will remain stationary
with high pressure extending south to the Arctic Coast and into
the Yukon Territory then west into the Upper Yukon Flats and the
Eastern Brooks Range. Low pressure south of the Yukon River will
persist as the front to the west moves inland to lie from a 987 mb
low near Gambell across Norton Sound and the southwest mainland
to a 1003 mb low near Shuyak Island. Leeside troughing will
develop north of the Brooks Range with a 1003 mb low developing
near Umiat. Thursday evening high pressure will persist across the
Arctic as the high remains stationary, while weak high pressure
will continue to push into the Upper Yukon Flats and Eastern
Brooks Range. Weak low pressure south of the Yukon River extending
west to the Decaying front in the Middle Yukon Valley as the
broad low pressure weakens with a 990 mb low in the Gulf of
Anadyr, and a 991 mb low in the Bering Strait with the front
extending southeast to a 1001 mb low in Prince William Sound.
Friday morning a broad col will develop over the Central and
Eastern Interior with high pressure over the Arctic as the high
moves to 600 nm north of Demarcation Point, and weak high pressure
to the south as a 1011 mb high develops in the Western Alaska
Range. Low pressure in the Yukon Territory will slide east and
weaken, while the low pressure over the Bering Sea will continue
to weak with a 997 mb low in the Gulf of Anadyr, and a 996 mb low
in the Chukchi Sea. The front will continue to fall apart and be
very weak as it slides east.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Cloudy. A weak trough in the area
will bring some flurries to the Eastern Arctic Coast this
evening, but no significant accumulation. Increasing chance of
showers Thursday night and Friday with Arctic boundary in the
area. Winds Thursday increasing with some areas of blowing snow
reducing visibility at times. East to southeast winds increasing
along the coast and in the plains tonight to 20 to 30 mph and
gusty, while winds in the Brooks Range will generally be south at
5 to 15 mph with some gusts around Atigun Pass to 25 mph. Low
temperatures tonight and Thursday night in the teens to lower
20s. High temperatures Thursday will range from the upper teens
to around 30 above.

West Coast and Western Interior...A weather front is moving into
the area as it decays bringing a mix of showers this evening that
will all turn to snow overnight. The front will continue to weak
as it works its way inland and north into the Seward Peninsula.
Snowfall amounts up to 3 inches with the heaviest snowfall north
of Ambler and in the Bendeleben Mountains on the Seward Peninsula.
Winds along the coast southeast 15 to 30 mph, strongest offshore,
while inland winds east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph. Low
temperatures tonight and Thursday night in the 20s and 30s. High
temperatures Thursday in the 30s to lower 40s.

Central and Eastern Interior...A mix of clouds with some patchy
fog tonight. The front moving to the west coast will continue to
decay as it moves across the interior, but it will bring snow
showers to the Interior with accumulations up to 2 inches. Around
Fairbanks expect less than one inch accumulation as showers will
be scattered. Snow in the Alaska Range with around 5 inches along
the Richardson Highway by Friday morning. Winds variable to 10 mph
except near the Alaska Range Passes where they will pick up
tonight to 25 to 35 mph gusting to 55 mph as well with
accumulations around one inch near the highways. Strong gusty
winds near the Alaska Range and Delta Junction continue from the
southeast to south at 15 to 30 mph gusting near 60 mph south of
Delta Junction. Winds for the remainder of the area will be
diminishing to variable to 10 mph. Low temperatures tonight and
Thursday night will range from the teens north of the Yukon River
to 20s to the south. High temperatures Thursday in the upper 20s
to around 40.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...A strong low moving across
the Bering Sea Tuesday has potential to produce high surf or minor
coastal flooding south of the Bering Strait. Models have not been
consistent run to run, so we will continue to watch this closely.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...A benign pressure pattern
across the forecast area with high pressure over the Arctic and a
low moving into the gulf Saturday night will produce some isolated
showers across the area. Sunday night a front will move to the
West Coast with a low near Nunivak Island bringing some strong
offshore winds to areas south of the Bering Strait. High pressure
over the inland areas and Arctic will bring some cooler
temperatures with a mix of clouds. A stronger low will move
across the Bering Sea Tuesday to St Matthew Island and that may
produce some minor coastal flooding south of the Bering Strait,
but models do not have a good handle on it at this point, so we
will continue to watch it closely.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AK...Dense Fog Advisory for AKZ222.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ226.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200.
     Gale Warning for PKZ201-210.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ215.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ220.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ225.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ230.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ235-240-245.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ240.

&&

SDB OCT 22