Wind Advisory 37, NWS Fairbanks, AK

850 
WWAK73 PAFG 171749
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
949 AM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

AKZ226-181500-
/O.EXT.PAFG.WI.Y.0037.000000T0000Z-221018T1500Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including the cities of Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
949 AM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM AKDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 25 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* WHERE...Eastern Alaska Range.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM AKDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Gusty winds will diminish this morning and
  early afternoon but increase in the evening and overnight hours

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

194 
WWAK73 PAFG 181426
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
626 AM AKDT Tue Oct 18 2022

AKZ226-181530-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0037.000000T0000Z-221018T1500Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including the cities of Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
626 AM AKDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...


$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
128 PM AKDT Sun Oct 16 2022

.SYNOPSIS...A weather front moving northwest across the Interior
will move to the Brooks Range this afternoon and evening bringing
snow to the area and spreading snow north to the Arctic Coast
where snow and blowing snow will reduce visibility this evening
before the winds diminish. A Blizzard Warning remains in effect
for the Kaktovik area, and a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect
for Nuiqsut and Deadhorse area. A trough over the West Coast will
continue to bring mainly snow showers to the area, but rain may
mix in at times from Nome south. Strong gusty winds in the Eastern
Alaska Range will diminish this evening. A mix of clouds for the
Interior south of the Yukon River with cloudy skies and snow
showers to the north. Temperatures warmer than the last few days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...16/12Z solutions are in good agreement and there has been
decent run to run consistency. Precipitation solutions are
similar, but MOS guidance continues to not be matching up with
the gridded guidance, so will be using a blend, but kick the
probabilities up using the MOS guidance. Wind solutions are
similar as they trend down the winds on the West Coast and in the
Arctic, so will use a blend with a lean to the Canadian solution.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Shortwaves moving north over the Central and
Eastern Interior to the Brooks Range this afternoon with another
shortwave moving north to the Copper River Basin and Southcentral
area. Troughing persists over the Bering Sea with 520 dam low over
Nunivak Island, a 520 dam low 100 nm north of Adak, and a 524 dam
low just southeast of Sand Point. Ridging is being pushed
offshore over the Arctic and western Chukchi Sea. A 528 am low
will develop over Noatak this evening and move over the Arctic
Plain at 518 dam by Monday morning. Monday afternoon the low over
the Arctic Plain will be 150 nm north of Prudhoe Bay, while the
low over Nunivak Island will move over Marshall at 523 dam, and
the low near Adak will move to Cod Bay at 522 dam. A weak ridge
will move over the southwest Arctic with a 526 dam high 150 nm
northwest of Point Lay. Weak ridging will push in over the
Interior from the southeast with the axis from the AlCan Border
Crossing to Fairbanks to Ambler. Tuesday morning ridging will
persist over the Central and Eastern Interior while the low in the
Arctic moves to 150 nm north of MacKenzie Bay, and weak troughing
holds on over the West Coast with a 530 dam low over Norton Bay,
and a 530 dam low over Dillingham. Troughing will extend northwest
over the Siberian Arctic Coast. Ridging will move over the
Western Bering Sea Monday, and by Tuesday morning the axis will
be just east of the Dateline. At 850 hpa...-10C isotherm remains
north of the Arctic coast, while the 0C isotherm has moved north
to the Yukon River. By Monday afternoon the 0C isotherm will lie
from Chalkyitsik to Tanana to McGrath, then south, while the -10C
isotherm will drift south over the Central Arctic Coast.

Surface...The low in the Arctic Plain has strengthened to 995 mb,
while the low that was in Bristol Bay yesterday has moved into
the Kvichak Delta at 986 mb, while the low that was near Nunivak
Island has moved to Cape Romanzof at 985 mb. Leeside troughing
continues north of the Alaska Range with a 994 mb low in the
Tanana Flats. Low pressure has pushed over the Arctic nearshore
waters, while high pressure holds north of 75N. Monday morning low
pressure continues to hold across the state with a 990 mb low
near Nuiqsut, a 985 mb low near Cape Romanzof, and a 991 mb low
on Kodiak Island. Leeside troughing north of the Alaska Range will
weaken, while in the Arctic high pressure will hold north of 75N.
Monday afternoon the low in the Arctic will be 50 nm north of
Prudhoe Bay at 992 mb, the low will persist near Cape Romanzof at
992 mb, and the low over Kodiak Island will move into Cook Inlet
at 999 mb. High pressure will be pushing west into the Copper
River Basin, and high pressure in the Bering Sea will move to the
Dateline.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Generally cloudy with increasing
chance of snow this afternoon. Strong winds will diminish through
the evening, but with the snow Blizzard warning has been issued
for Kaktovik area, with Winter Weather Advisory for Deadhorse and
vicinity as visibility will be reduced in snow and blowing snow.
Near Blizzard conditions developing from Nuiqsut to Deadhorse
Sunday afternoon, with Blizzard conditions east of Deadhorse.
Improving conditions Sunday night and Monday as winds diminish.
Snow in the Brooks Range will taper off overnight. East to
southeast winds 30 to 50 mph from Nuiqsut east will snap around
from the south and southwest around midnight tonight at Kaktovik,
around 4 am Monday at Nuiqsut, and around 7 am Monday at
Deadhorse, and diminish to 10 to 20 mph. Wind west of Nuiqsut will
remain northeast to east at 10 to 25 mph with diminishing winds
Monday. Low temperatures tonight and Monday night in the teens to
lower 20s. High temperatures Monday will range from the 20s to
around 30 above.

West Coast and Western Interior...Low pressure with a inverted
trough over the coast will continue with generally cloudy
conditions prevailing. Stronger north winds offshore will slowly
diminish as the pressure gradient weakens. Scattered to numerous
snow showers may mix with rain during the afternoon hours from
Nome south. Winds mainly offshore to 15 mph near the coast and
variable to 10 mph inland. Low temperatures tonight and Monday
night in the 20s to around 30. High temperatures Monday in the 30s
to around 40.

Central and Eastern Interior...A mix of clouds with snow north of
the Yukon River. Snowfall amounts generally less than 2 inches
north of Gobblers Knob to Atigun Pass. Light snow in the Alaska
Range as well with accumulations around one inch near the
highways. Strong gusty winds near the Alaska Range and Delta
Junction continue from the southeast to south at 15 to 30 mph
gusting near 60 mph south of Delta Junction. Winds for the
remainder of the area will be diminishing to variable to 10 mph.
Low temperatures tonight and Monday night will range from the
teens north of the Yukon River to around 30 in the Alaska Range.
High temperatures Monday in the mid 20s to lower 40s.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...A strong low will move north
into the Gulf of Alaska Wednesday while a weather front will move
across the Bering Sea to the West Coast. A mix of precipitation
in the Eastern Interior east of Manley Hot Springs will slide
north to the Eastern Brooks Range and Arctic Coast Thursday. The
arctic front will lie over the Arctic Coast with clouds and
flurries persisting. A front in the Bering Strait and southwest
mainland will spread showers north into the Chukchi Sea, and east
into the Middle and Lower Yukon, and Upper Kuskokwim valleys. The
decaying front on the West Coast will move east across the state
Friday, while westerly flow across the Bering Sea will bring showers
to the area through the weekend. A couple strong lows will move
across the Bering Sea to the Gulf of Anadyr to start next week
that have the potential to bring significant weather to the West
Coast, but at this range there is still a lot of uncertainty in
the forecast, so we well keep a close watch on it through the
week.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ203.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ226.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ204.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-225-230-235.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ220.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ230.
     Gale Warning for PKZ240-245.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ245.

&&

SDB OCT 22