Wind Advisory 36, NWS Fairbanks, AK

434 
WWAK73 PAFG 151125
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
325 AM AKDT Sat Oct 15 2022

AKZ223-160200-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0036.221016T0000Z-221017T0000Z/
Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Including the cities of Salcha, Delta Junction, Fort Greely, 
Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek, Dot Lake, and Healy Lake
325 AM AKDT Sat Oct 15 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
4 PM AKDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph expected.

* WHERE...Near Delta Junction.

* WHEN...From 4 PM today to 4 PM AKDT Sunday. 

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

AKZ225-160200-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0036.221016T0000Z-221017T0200Z/
Denali-
Including the cities of Healy, Denali National Park, Cantwell, 
Carlo Creek, and Kantishna
325 AM AKDT Sat Oct 15 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
6 PM AKDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 40 mph with gusts to 60 mph expected.

* WHERE...Near Healy.

* WHEN...From 4 PM today to 6 PM AKDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

AKZ226-160200-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0036.221016T0000Z-221017T0200Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including the cities of Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
325 AM AKDT Sat Oct 15 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
6 PM AKDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 40 mph with gusts to 60 mph expected.

* WHERE...North of Black Rapids.

* WHEN...From 4 PM today to 6 PM AKDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

477 
WWAK73 PAFG 152305
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
305 PM AKDT Sat Oct 15 2022

AKZ223-161400-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0036.221016T0000Z-221017T0000Z/
Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Including the cities of Salcha, Delta Junction, Fort Greely, 
Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek, Dot Lake, and Healy Lake
305 PM AKDT Sat Oct 15 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph expected.

* WHERE...Near Delta Junction.

* WHEN...From 4 PM today to 4 PM AKDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

AKZ225-161400-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0036.221016T0000Z-221017T0200Z/
Denali-
Including the cities of Healy, Denali National Park, Cantwell, 
Carlo Creek, and Kantishna
305 PM AKDT Sat Oct 15 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 40 mph with gusts to 60 mph expected.

* WHERE...Near Healy.

* WHEN...From 4 PM today to 6 PM AKDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

AKZ226-161400-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0036.221016T0000Z-221017T0200Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including the cities of Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
305 PM AKDT Sat Oct 15 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 40 mph with gusts to 60 mph expected.

* WHERE...North of Black Rapids.

* WHEN...From 4 PM today to 6 PM AKDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

494 
WWAK73 PAFG 161004
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
204 AM AKDT Sun Oct 16 2022

AKZ223-170000-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-221017T0000Z/
Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Including the cities of Salcha, Delta Junction, Fort Greely, 
Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek, Dot Lake, and Healy Lake
204 AM AKDT Sun Oct 16 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph expected.

* WHERE...Near Delta Junction.

* WHEN...Through 4 PM AKDT today.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

AKZ225-170000-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-221017T0200Z/
Denali-
Including the cities of Healy, Denali National Park, Cantwell, 
Carlo Creek, and Kantishna
204 AM AKDT Sun Oct 16 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 40 mph with gusts to 60 mph expected.

* WHERE...Near Healy.

* WHEN...Through 6 PM AKDT today.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

AKZ226-170000-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-221017T0200Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including the cities of Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
204 AM AKDT Sun Oct 16 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 40 mph with gusts to 60 mph expected.

* WHERE...North of Black Rapids.

* WHEN...Through 6 PM AKDT today.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

485 
WWAK73 PAFG 161936
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1136 AM AKDT Sun Oct 16 2022

AKZ223-162045-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-221017T0000Z/
Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Including the cities of Salcha, Delta Junction, Fort Greely, 
Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek, Dot Lake, and Healy Lake
1136 AM AKDT Sun Oct 16 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

AKZ225-162045-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-221017T0200Z/
Denali-
Including the cities of Healy, Denali National Park, Cantwell, 
Carlo Creek, and Kantishna
1136 AM AKDT Sun Oct 16 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

AKZ226-170200-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-221017T0200Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including the cities of Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
1136 AM AKDT Sun Oct 16 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 40 mph with gusts to 60 mph expected.

* WHERE...North of Black Rapids.

* WHEN...Through 6 PM AKDT today.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

097 
WWAK73 PAFG 170138
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
538 PM AKDT Sun Oct 16 2022

AKZ226-170245-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-221017T0200Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including the cities of Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
538 PM AKDT Sun Oct 16 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds will continue to diminish across the Eastern Alaska Range through
the late evening. Thus the wind advisory has been cancelled.

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
522 AM AKDT Fri Oct 14 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Fairly quiet conditions across northern Alaska today. Onshore flow
along the Arctic coast will continue to bring snow showers to the
North Slope today. Otherwise high pressure will bring clearing
skies and dry conditions. A front will move north Saturday and
Sunday into the Interior bringing a potential mixed bag of
precipitation, increasing winds, and warmer temperatures. Gales
through the Bering Strait Saturday and Sunday could bring some
elevated surf to the north side of St. Lawrence Island. Strong
east winds over the eastern Arctic Coast develop Saturday night
and Sunday, accompanied by reduced visibility in blowing snow, and
potentially elevated surf in locations with open water.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Levels and Analysis...
Aloft, at 500 mb, a 495 dam (decameter) low is in the high Arctic
450 NM north of Demarcation Point with broad troughing extending
south across much of northern Alaska. A shortwave stretches from
the low southwest to Nuiqsut to Allakaket to McGrath. Ridging
stretches northwest from a high over the northeast Pacific to Port
Alsworth to St Lawrence Island to a 542 dam high centered 50 NM
northwest of St Lawrence Island. A 523 dam low is 100 NM southwest
of Nikolski and a 527 dam low is over eastern Siberia. The low in
the high Arctic will weaken to 499 dam as it moves to be 175 NM
northwest of Banks Island by this afternoon. As this low moves
east, the shortwave that stretched southwest to McGrath will
rotate northeast through the day to be east of the AlCan border by
this afternoon. As the low southwest of Nikolski tracks east
southeast through tonight to be 300 NM south of False Pass by
Saturday morning, ridging will slide north across northern Alaska
with a ridge axis extending northwest from the northeastern
Pacific to Yakutat to Fairbanks to Hughes to Kotzebue to the
Chukotsk Peninsula. The low over eastern Siberia stays nearly
stationary through Saturday morning, while a weak 534 dam low
tries to develop over the Western Bering Sea. By Sunday morning
ridge axis has slide north across the Arctic Plains and west to
the northern Chukotsk Peninsula, with strong southerly flow
developing across much of northern Alaska. The low southwest of
False Pass moves north to be just west of of Nunivak, absorbing
the weak low that was previously over the Western Bering Sea. By
early Monday morning, the ridge axis has moved north of the Arctic
Coast, while the low west of Nunivak Island and moved little and
the low over Eastern Siberia makes slow headway eastward.

At the surface, a 994 mb low is 300 NM northwest of Banks Island,
while a 988 mb low is 100 NM southwest of Nikolski, and a 1008 mb
low is 350 NM west of Wrangel Island. The low northwest of Banks
Island will weaken through Saturday as it moves into the Canadian
Archipelago, while the low west of Wrangel Island weakens as it
moves east through Saturday as a 1020 mb high builds east across
the high Arctic to be 450 NM north of Utqiagvik by Saturday
afternoon. The high strengthens as it continues eastward Sunday to
be 1025 mb 150 NM northwest of Banks Island. The low southwest of
Nikolski will move to be a 985 mb low near Sand Point Saturday
morning, tracking north through the weekend to be a 984 mb low
near Kuskokwim Bay by Sunday afternoon.

A 1030 mb high is centered near Mayo this morning with high
pressure extending west across much of northern Alaska to a 1022
mb high over the Chukotsk Peninsula. The high near Mayo will move
northeast today towards the Northwest Territories while a 1028 mb
area of high pressure develops over the eastern Brooks Range and
eastern Arctic Plains this afternoon. The high pressure will shift
eastward Saturday night and Sunday with leeside troughing develops
north of the Brooks Range by Sunday afternoon.

Models...
The 14/00Z model runs initialized well aloft against the 00Z RAOBS
and at the surface with the 00Z and 06Z surface obs. Solutions
remain in good agreement through the weekend with the overall
synoptic pattern, however, by Saturday night, differences in
placement of smaller scale features become evident, this is
especially noticeable with the low near the Alaska Peninsula. The
differences with this low continue into the extended period. Model
depiction of enhanced southerly flow aloft across northern Alaska
remains similar and will be a driving force of the forecast over
the next several days. This southerly flow does present some
challenges with precipitation forecast, snow levels, and precip
type. Increased winds in the Alaska Range will limit precip across
the Middle Tanana Valley Saturday into Sunday, as the area gets
shadowed out. The warmer air with the southerly flow will also
bring rising snow levels that vary from model to model and model
run to model run, this in turn makes precip type forecasts
challenging this weekend. Given the spread, we opted to use a
general blend of models, making only minor changes to the
inherited forecast package. The speed of the spread of precip into
the Interior may need to be slowed down for future forecasts if
the current trend of slowing of the front continues.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Snow showers will persist along the coast today, accompanied by
gusty west to southwesterly winds that will diminish this evening
and tonight. Strongest winds along the Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast
where winds of 20 to 30 mph are expected today. Strong east winds
of 30 to 45 mph develop over the eastern Arctic Coast Saturday
night and Sunday, as low pressure develops across the Arctic
Plains and high pressure is over the offshore waters. These strong
winds may be accompanied by reduced visibility in blowing snow.
In addition, these winds may result in some elevated surf in
locations with open water. Temperatures trend downwards through
Saturday. High temperatures today in the mid 20s to low 30s along
the coast with highs in the 20s across the Arctic Plains and in
the single digits above to mid teens in the Brooks Range.
Temperatures a few degrees cooler Saturday, before warming on
Sunday. Lows tonight will be cooler, as temperatures fall into the
single digits to low teens in the Arctic Plains, the single
digits above to single digits below zero in the Alaska Range and
into the teens along much of the coast, with low 20s possible from
Wainwright east.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Largely precip free conditions anticipated through early Saturday
as high pressure will be the dominant feature. A front pushing
north will bring the next chance of precip Saturday afternoon. The
bulk of the precip will be in the form of snow showers. There is
the potential for some mixed precip in the western Interior
possible by late Saturday and Saturday night, as southerly flow
aloft increases bringing some warmer air. East to northeast winds
generally 15 mph or less through north of the Seward Peninsula and
inland. South of the Seward Peninsula winds of 10 to 20 mph can
be expected today. Winds increase across tonight and Saturday and
become gusty, especially in higher elevations, through the Bering
Strait to St Lawrence Island, and along the coast from the Seward
Peninsula south. Gales through the Bering Strait Saturday and
Sunday could bring some elevated surf to the north side of St.
Lawrence Island. High temperatures reach into the low to mid 30s
along the coast and the upper 20s to mid 30s for much of the
Interior, with the exception for those areas in the western Brooks
Range where temperatures will be in the teens. High temperatures
trend down a couple of degrees on Saturday, but rebound on Sunday.
Lows a few degrees colder tonight than Thursday night.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Quieter conditions expected across the region today as high
pressure builds in. Winds will increase late today ahead of the
next front moving north Saturday. Northeast winds of 15 to 25 mph
can be expected along highway summits through Saturday, this may
result in areas of blowing snow. Tanana Valley Jet sets up tonight
bringing east to southeast winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 30
to 40 mph possible, diminishing Sunday. Chinook winds develop in
the Alaska Range Saturday night, in particular the eastern Alaska
Range, and will continue into Monday. Gusts to 50 mph possible.
Precip chances return Saturday with the front and spread from the
southeast to the northwest through Sunday. The Alaska Range will
block much of the precipitation in the Tanana Valley on Saturday,
with the best chances to the north and west. Warming temperatures
Saturday and Sunday will bring chances for mixed precipitation.
Snowfall totals Saturday through Sunday generally 1 to 3 inches
from Hughes to Fort Yukon north into the southeastern Brooks
Range. A couple of inches of snow possible the Alaska Range with
up to 1.5 inches possible from Dot Lake to Tok. Warming trend
begins today. Temperatures will increase a few degrees each day
through the weekend, with the exception of the southeast Interior
where temperatures will be a couple degrees cooler today, but that
area will begin it’s upward trend on Saturday.

Extended Forecast Days 4 to 7...
Southerly flow aloft will support chinook conditions Sunday into
Monday across the Alaska Range with periodic surges of gap flow
through the week. This will bring warming temperatures to much of
the Interior. By midweek models bring a low out of Kamchatka and
across the Bering Sea. There is a wide spread in models with the
placement, timing, and strength.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Gales through the Bering
Strait through Sunday afternoon may result in elevated surf along
the north side of St. Lawrence Island. Gusty east winds along the
Arctic Coast Sunday and Monday may result in some elevated surf
in locations with open water.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ201.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ240-245.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ245.
&&