Wind Advisory 3, NWS Fairbanks, AK

835 
WWAK73 PAFG 142051
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1151 AM AKST Fri Jan 14 2022

AKZ226-150300-
/O.EXT.PAFG.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-220115T0300Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including the cities of Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids, 
Donnelly Dome, Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
1151 AM AKST Fri Jan 14 2022

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Northern Isabel Pass.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM AKST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

996 
WWAK73 PAFG 150247
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
547 PM AKST Fri Jan 14 2022

AKZ226-150400-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-220115T0300Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including the cities of Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids, 
Donnelly Dome, Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
547 PM AKST Fri Jan 14 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Strong winds have ended, and winds will continue to decrease
tonight.

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
348 AM AKST Fri Jan 14 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A seasonable weather pattern is in place, which is different from
that which had dominated over most of this winter and late fall.
The cold polar low aloft has split and shifted east into Canada,
with a weak high latitude block over the Chukchi Sea now in place.
Strong lows track across the Eastern Gulf with weak fronts
crossing the Alaska Range, which has brought warmer temps to the
Interior, as well as light snow north of the AK Range. Gusty winds
are in place around the Alaska Range associated with a lee trough
behind the aforementioned front, which will die down over the
next day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
There is a powerful shortwave trough moving east across the Yukon
Territory. There is an elongated deformation zone aloft
associated with that feature stretching west across the Central
Interior. There is a 531 dam upper level high over the Chukchi
Sea with a 510 dam upper low over the Bering Sea. Another low is
tracking across Kodiak Island. The low over Kodiak represents the
main surface low center, at around 982 mb, with a broad 1030 mb
high over the high arctic north of Wrangel Island. This pattern is
producing a moderate Tanana Valley Jet and gusty south winds
through the AK Range, with broad offshore flow over the West
Coast. Light snow associated with the deformation zone aloft/front
is falling from the Central Interior highlands northeast to the
Yukon Flats.

Model Discussion...
The numerical models are in fair agreement with the overall
synoptic pattern, but show rather large differences with a
departing upper low currently over the Bering Sea as it tracks
east through Sunday night. The NAM is a notable outlier, which is
farther south and faster than anything else. A middle ground
approach will be favored which continues snow chances for the
weekend over the Interior, but no higher probability chances at
this juncture as the system shifts east.

Central and Eastern Interior...
A slow moving warm front has crossed the Alaska Range and is
moving north, bringing snow from Tanana northeast to the Yukon
Flats and north to the Upper Koyukuk Valley. Gusty Tanana Valley
Jet winds are pushing through the Tanana Flats but seem to be
coming down slightly. SOuth winds through the AK Range continue
to near 50 mph as well, and will peak this morning then taper off
this afternoon. The front stalls south of the Brooks Range and
then weakens this weekend, but with continued light snow. Blowing
snow over the Highway Summits north of Fairbanks will continue
through Saturday. More light snow chances move into the Eastern
Interior Sunday and again Monday as the flow flattens and becomes
more westerly aloft.

West Coast and Western Interior...
An upper low over the Bering Sea will move east into the Mainland,
increasing snow chances from the YK Delta and Lower Yukon and then
north into the Yukon Valley through Saturday night. A few inches
of snow is possible with 3-5" possible over the Middle Kusko
Valley. That low exits east and another redevelops over the NW
Arctic Borough, bringing more light snow chances Sunday and Monday
from the Seward Peninsula north. Strong north winds along the
coast will continue, with gale force winds over the western Arctic
Coast from Point Lay to Point Hope, and gale force gusts down the
Bering Strait.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
High pressure is centered over the Arctic with rather seasonable
weather over the North Slope, with a front bringing gusty north
winds and light snow to the Eastern Brooks Range. Gale force west
winds are impacting Point Hope, but rather light winds persist
elsewhere. No major changes to the pattern next couple days until
a front brings snow chances to the western Arctic and Brooks
Range Sunday and Monday.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
An arctic trough will dig in over the NW Arctic then shift east
across the Brooks Range and northern Interior Monday through
Wednesday, which will keep snow chances in place as well as cut
temps down, although not into the deep freeze. The global
numerical models are depict the same general pattern but differ on
the depth of upper level troughing over the Mainland by mid week
and beyond.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ206-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221.

Gale Warning for PKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ230.

&&

&&

AHSENMACHER JAN 22