Wind Advisory 28, NWS Fairbanks, AK

366 
WWAK73 PAFG 152230
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
230 PM AKDT Thu Sep 15 2022

AKZ226-161400-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-220916T1400Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including the cities of Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
230 PM AKDT Thu Sep 15 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Eastern Alaska Range from Donnelly Dome south.

* WHEN...From noon today to 6 AM AKDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

971 
WWAK73 PAFG 161132
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
332 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

AKZ226-170100-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-220916T1400Z/
/O.NEW.PAFG.WI.Y.0029.220917T0000Z-220918T0000Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including the cities of Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
332 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM AKDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Eastern Alaska Range.

* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM AKDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
340 PM AKDT Wed Sep 14 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
All eyes are focused on Typhoon Merbok as it transitions to an
extra tropical system over the Southern Bering Sea on Thursday
night and Friday and then moves north and east into the Central
Bering Sea Friday and through the Bering Strait on Saturday. The
remnants of Typhoon Merbok will take a track that will likely
produce significant Coastal Flooding along the West Coast of
Alaska as well as produce hurricane strength wind gusts along the
coast and will produce heavy rain on Friday and Saturday. Coastal
Flood Watches have been issued for all coastlines along the West
Coast south of Point Hope and High Wind Watches have been issued
for all coastal areas south of the Bering Strait. Coastal
residents are strongly encouraged to complete preparations for
this storm by Friday morning as conditions will rapidly
deteriorate Friday afternoon. Moderate rain continues over the
Central Interior with one half to one inch of rain falling through
Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis... A deep longwave trough currently
over Eastern Russia and the Bering Sea and a strong ridge over the
Eastern Pacific and the Yukon will persist with several strong
shortwaves moving through the trough a weak ridge over the West
Coast of Alaska. A strong shortwave moving south and east over the
Sea of Okhotsk will move over the Western Bering Sea Thursday
night and Friday and will provide a very favorable upper level
environment for the remnants of Typhoon to deepen as it pushes
north and east into the Central Bering Sea on Friday. This strong
upper level wave will continue to push north and east through the
Bering Strait on Saturday morning and into the Southern Chukchi
Sea on Sunday morning. A weak front stalled over the Central
Interior will continue to weaken and push east tonight and
Thursday.

On the surface a 979 mb low currently located near St Matthew
Island will sweep a front north and east over the Yk Delta and
Seward Peninsula tonight and into the western Interior on
Thursday. This front will bring a round of gusty winds and rain to
these areas. A 1030 mb high pressure system over the Chukchi and
Beaufort Sea near 80N will continue to bring low ceilings, fog and
showers to the North Slope. A weak trough over the Central
Interior stretching from near McGrath to Arctic Village will push
east tonight and weaken as it moves into Canada. The 970 mb low
currently over St Matthew Island will weaken rapidly as it moves
east into Norton Sound tonight.

All eyes are focused on Typhoon Merbok as it moves north into the
Western Aleutians Thursday night and the Western Bering Sea on
Friday morning. The remnants of Typhoon Merbok will deepen to
around 940 mb Friday morning and pass over St Lawrence Saturday
morning as a 948 mb low and then will pass through the Bering
Strait as a Friday afternoon as a 960 mb low Saturday morning.
The low continues to push north and east into the Southern Chukchi
Sea on Saturday as a 970 mb low.

The track and strength of this storm moving into the Bering Sea on
Friday and Saturday has to the potential to produce major coastal
flooding and will likely push significant storm surge into the
Yukon River Delta. Water levels with this storm are expected to
rival the November 2011 storm. Water levels are expected to rise 5
to 8 feet above normal high tide level along the coast in YK
Delta and will push well inland along the Yukon River and
surrounding YK delta areas Friday night and Saturday. Water levels
in Norton Sound are expected to rise 8 to 12 feet above the
normal high tide level and are expected to rise 7 to 10 feet above
normal high tide levels along and near the Bering Strait.
Hurricane force wind gusts are likely along much of the West Coast
as this storm passes. Residents are encouraged to secure items
that may blow around in the strong winds and prepare for possible
power outages. Very strong winds and heavy rain will move into the
Western Interior and Western Brooks Range Friday and Saturday as
the system push north and east through the Bering Strait. Gusty
gaps winds will develop through the Alaska Range Passes beginning
Thursday night and continuing into Saturday evening.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
The remnants of Typhoon Merbok as it tracks through the Central
Bering Sea, the Bering Strait and into the Southern Chukchi Sea
presents a significant threat of major coastal flooding along the
West Coast especially south of the Bering Strait from Friday night
into Sun, and a possibility of coastal flooding from the Bering
Strait to Point Hope from Sat into Sun. See Coastal Flood Watch
Statements and High Wind Watch Statements for additional details.
Coastal residents are strongly encouraged to complete
preparations for this storm by Friday morning as conditions will
rapidly deteriorate Friday afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Small river and Stream flooding possible in the Denali area
through Thu. Other rivers in the Eastern Interior rising sharply
but flooding not expected. West Coast rivers will see significant
rises this weekend. The Yukon River in the Delta could flood this
weekend with the storm surge.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Coastal Flood Watch for AKZ214.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200.
     Gale Warning for PKZ201.
     Gale Warning for PKZ210.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ215.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ230.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ235-240-245.
&&