Wind Advisory 20, NWS Fairbanks, AK

099 
WWAK73 PAFG 170449
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
849 PM AKDT Tue Aug 16 2022

AKZ223-180100-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0020.220817T1900Z-220818T0900Z/
Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Including the cities of Salcha, Delta Junction, Fort Greely, 
Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek, Dot Lake, and Healy Lake
849 PM AKDT Tue Aug 16 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM
AKDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Deltana and Tanana Flats.

* WHEN...From 11 AM Wednesday to 1 AM AKDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

AKZ226-180100-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0020.220817T1500Z-220818T1800Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including the cities of Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
849 PM AKDT Tue Aug 16 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM
AKDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Eastern Alaska Range.

* WHEN...From 7 AM Wednesday to 10 AM AKDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

734 
WWAK73 PAFG 171017
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
217 AM AKDT Wed Aug 17 2022

AKZ220-180200-
/O.EXB.PAFG.WI.Y.0020.220818T0600Z-220819T0200Z/
Yukon Flats and Surrounding Uplands-
Including the cities of Fort Yukon, Venetie, Central, Circle, 
Stevens Village, Beaver, Chalkyitsik, Birch Creek, 
Circle Hot Springs, Eagle Summit, and Twelvemile Summit
217 AM AKDT Wed Aug 17 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM AKDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Higher terrain and over summits.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 6 PM AKDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

AKZ223-180200-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0020.220817T1900Z-220818T0900Z/
Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Including the cities of Salcha, Delta Junction, Fort Greely, 
Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek, Dot Lake, and Healy Lake
217 AM AKDT Wed Aug 17 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
1 AM AKDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Deltana and Tanana Flats.

* WHEN...From 11 AM this morning to 1 AM AKDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

AKZ226-180200-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0020.220817T1500Z-220818T1800Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including the cities of Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
217 AM AKDT Wed Aug 17 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO
10 AM AKDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Eastern Alaska Range.

* WHEN...From 7 AM this morning to 10 AM AKDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

414 
WWAK73 PAFG 172107
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
107 PM AKDT Wed Aug 17 2022

AKZ220-180900-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0020.220818T0600Z-220819T0200Z/
Yukon Flats and Surrounding Uplands-
Including the cities of Fort Yukon, Venetie, Central, Circle, 
Stevens Village, Beaver, Chalkyitsik, Birch Creek, 
Circle Hot Springs, Eagle Summit, and Twelvemile Summit
107 PM AKDT Wed Aug 17 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 PM AKDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Yukon Flats and Surrounding Uplands.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 6 PM AKDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

AKZ223-180900-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-220818T0900Z/
Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Including the cities of Salcha, Delta Junction, Fort Greely, 
Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek, Dot Lake, and Healy Lake
107 PM AKDT Wed Aug 17 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM AKDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Deltana and Tanana Flats.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM AKDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

AKZ226-180900-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-220818T1800Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including the cities of Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
107 PM AKDT Wed Aug 17 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* WHERE...Eastern Alaska Range.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM AKDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

859 
WWAK73 PAFG 180904
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
104 AM AKDT Thu Aug 18 2022

AKZ223-181715-
/O.EXP.PAFG.WI.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-220818T0900Z/
/O.NEW.PAFG.WI.Y.0021.220818T0904Z-220818T1800Z/
Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Including the cities of Salcha, Delta Junction, Fort Greely, 
Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek, Dot Lake, and Healy Lake
104 AM AKDT Thu Aug 18 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...South winds 30 mph with gusts to 60 mph.

* WHERE...Deltana and Tanana Flats.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM AKDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest winds are near Delta
  Junction. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

AKZ220-181715-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-220819T0200Z/
Yukon Flats and Surrounding Uplands-
Including the cities of Fort Yukon, Venetie, Central, Circle, 
Stevens Village, Beaver, Chalkyitsik, Birch Creek, 
Circle Hot Springs, Eagle Summit, and Twelvemile Summit
104 AM AKDT Thu Aug 18 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Yukon Flats and Surrounding Uplands.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 6 PM AKDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

AKZ226-181715-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-220818T1800Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including the cities of Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
104 AM AKDT Thu Aug 18 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...South winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* WHERE...Eastern Alaska Range.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM AKDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

752 
WWAK73 PAFG 181356
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
556 AM AKDT Thu Aug 18 2022

AKZ220-190200-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-220819T0200Z/
Yukon Flats and Surrounding Uplands-
Including the cities of Fort Yukon, Venetie, Central, Circle, 
Stevens Village, Beaver, Chalkyitsik, Birch Creek, 
Circle Hot Springs, Eagle Summit, and Twelvemile Summit
556 AM AKDT Thu Aug 18 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Yukon Flat and Surrounding Uplands.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM AKDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest winds will be over Steese
  Highway Summits.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

AKZ223-181800-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-220818T1800Z/
Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Including the cities of Salcha, Delta Junction, Fort Greely, 
Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek, Dot Lake, and Healy Lake
556 AM AKDT Thu Aug 18 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...South winds 30 mph with gusts to 60 mph.

* WHERE...Deltana and Tanana Flats.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM AKDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest winds are near Delta 
  Junction.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

AKZ226-181800-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-220818T1800Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including the cities of Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
556 AM AKDT Thu Aug 18 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...South winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* WHERE...Eastern Alaska Range.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM AKDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

311 
WWAK73 PAFG 181632
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
832 AM AKDT Thu Aug 18 2022

AKZ226-181745-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-220818T1800Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, Trims DOT Camp, 
Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
832 AM AKDT Thu Aug 18 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Gusty winds have diminished and the advisory is cancelled.

$$

AKZ220-181745-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-220819T0200Z/
Yukon Flats and Surrounding Uplands-
Including Fort Yukon, Venetie, Central, Circle, Stevens Village, 
Beaver, Chalkyitsik, Birch Creek, Circle Hot Springs, 
Eagle Summit, and Twelvemile Summit
832 AM AKDT Thu Aug 18 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Gusty winds have diminished and the advisory is cancelled.

$$

AKZ223-181745-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-220818T1800Z/
Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Including Salcha, Delta Junction, Fort Greely, 
Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek, Dot Lake, and Healy Lake
832 AM AKDT Thu Aug 18 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Gusty winds have diminished and the advisory is cancelled.

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
154 AM AKDT Tue Aug 16 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Active weather pattern persists over the Mainland as another
rain event moves into Western Alaska today. The Eastern Interior
will transition back to southerly flow today with warmer and
drier conditions, as well as more AK Range gap winds. A strong low
will move inland over the Interior Wednesday and Thursday
bringing heavy rain to the Eastern Brooks Range and Arctic Coast,
with winds into the Interior and possibly more thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
An arctic trough remains the anchor for the upper air pattern over
the Mainland with a 539 dam upper low centered over NW Alaska.
There is a secondary shortwave trough over the YK Delta merging
with a low from the Bering which is bringing heavy rain to the
YK Delta. A remnant arctic boundary remains stalled over the
Eastern Interior, which was responsible for showers and
thunderstorms yesterday evening. Finally, there is a 545 dam upper
low over the NPAC which is expected to move north through the Gulf
and move inland Wednesday. Up along the North Slope there is just
enough cooler air for periods of mixed rain and snow, especially
from Umiat westward.

Model Discussion...
A very dynamic pattern will be in place Wednesday as a strong low
shifts from the Gulf of AK into the Central and Eastern Interior
and the entire trough goes deeply negative tilt. Models
beforehand are in excellent agreement, but then they begin to
diverge late Wednesday and beyond as the strong low deepens as it
moves north across the AK Range and then Brooks Range. The models
have settled on a developing surface low around the Upper Koyukuk
late Wednesday, with a second triple point low somewhere around
the Eastern Arctic. However, those details are still muddy, with
the GFS and NAM notable outliers compared to previous days, as
well as with respect to the Canadian and ECMWF. The current
thinking is the ECMWF is the best solution and we will favor this,
which brings heavy rainfall to the Eastern Brooks/Arctic Wed eve
and Thu, as well as a burst of winds to the Interior as the low
tracks inland.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Showers this morning over the Eastern Interior end and then more
develop this afternoon, favoring the White Mountains and
Fortymile. There will also be more isolated thunderstorm chances
for the Fortymile, White Mountains and Yukon Flats where the
weakened Interior ridge resides. Alaska Range gap winds continue
to increase then peak late Tue night and Wed as a strong low
shifts inland, with some peak gusts as high as 60 mph through the
gaps, and gusts to 45+ mph for Delta Junction possible. There is
concern for more gusty winds even into the Tanana Valley and
Fairbanks late Wed and Wed night, both from the south and then
southwest. Stay tuned...but there may be localized gusts to 30+
mph once again.

With the low track coming from the south, this low system will likely
only bring isolated showers/thunderstorms for most of the
Interior, but moving north toward the Yukon Flats and Upper
Koyukuk, there will be much heavier rainfall and the chance for
some localized strong thunderstorms near the low center. Thursday
the low shifts north and showers will persist before ending Thu
night.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Rain is overspreading the Western Interior and will continue north
through tonight. The heavier rainfall shifts north as well toward
the Noatak Valley, especially by Wednesday evening. North winds
behind the low over the Delta will ramp up the gradient along the
entire coast, with winds expected to be 15 to 30 mph, gusting to
near 45 mph along the Bering coast and Saint Lawrence Island. N
winds calm Thu and rain begins to taper off.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
A front is lifting north offshore and will bring a gradual end to
rain/snow along the Arctic Coast today. A strong warm front aloft
shifts north Wednesday and will bring rain to the entire North
Slope and Brooks Range by late Wednesday as snow level heights
blast upwards to 5000+ feet over the Eastern Arctic by Wed night.
The associated strong low will bring heavy rainfall to the Eastern
Brooks and then the coast, and this will be in conjunction with
the high freezing heights, so swollen streams and rivers over the
Eastern Brooks Range are highly likely Thu and Fri.

In addition, the gradient will ramp up dramatically Tue night and
Wed with northeast winds 15-30 mph possibly gusting into the 40+
mph range along the coast.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
The storm track shifts back south as a large upper low forms over
the Bering Sea and then shifts southeast to the NPAC and Gulf of
AK. SOme rain late week for SW AK, then it looks quite a bit drier
and warmer for pretty much all of the Mainland for most of the
weekend into early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Ridging aloft rebuilds some with south winds increasing through
the AK Range today and peaking tonight and Wed, 40-60 mph. Today
will also be warmer and drier with only some isolated thunder over
the Fortymile and White Mountains, and parts of the Central
Interior higher terrain.

On Wednesday, it starts dry but a strong low shifts inland and
will bring gusty south winds to the Interior, peaking into the
40-50 mph range for Delta Junction, and 20-35 mph possible pretty
much from the Tanana Valley north. Isolated thunder will be
possible everywhere, with heavy rainfall likely north of the White
Mountains to the southern Brooks Range. Showers and blustery
southwest winds will continue Thu before drying Fri.

Out west, it will remain wet and cooler.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The main concern will be rising freezing levels and heavy rainfall
Wednesday and Thursday over the Eastern Brooks Range. 0.5-1.25"
rainfall is likely, over a wide area, with freezing levels over
7500 feet. Thus, there is a good chance for rapidly rising rivers
and some erosion in prone areas, through Friday for the Eastern
Brooks Range. Elsewhere, no significant concerns.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Wind Advisory for AKZ223-AKZ226.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ201-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

&&

AHSENMACHER AUG 22